Commodity Weather Group, LLC (CWG) helps its clients manage and mitigate the weather’s important impacts on agricultural and energy commodities.
Bethesda, MD, USA
Joined March 2014
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Watching unusually early first-of-season stratospheric warming in Northern Hemisphere. But this year's super El Niño could significantly outweigh anything else, such as this factor.
AI ensemble clusters show more support for continued warm to very warm pattern deep into 1st week of November for Midwest, East. and South.
Another late 11-15 day pattern battle between traditional (NWP) models, including the European, and the AI models. Pacific pattern looks warmer/bearish with troughing into the West Coast.
Record-breaking, super El Niño still on track to peak in Nov-Dec, but maintain its super-status through winter months.
End of 11-15 day is inside the first week of November, and all-ensemble mean/clusters in good agreement on continued strong Pacific jet influence for warm Lower 48 pattern.
Models lose U.S. heating demand over past 24 hours with warmer changes for East, South, and Midwest.
Should see lot of this this winter thanks to super El Niño: very strong Pacific jet stream influence on U.S. pattern.
11-15 day 2-meter temperature departures ensemble clustering: more warmer than not options yet again.
Models agree on warm-prevailing national pattern for late Oct into early Nov, but AI models are warmer on East Coast than traditional NWP guidance.
Odds are high for the developing wet pattern in Paraguay soy to persist this season based on strong El Niño analogs, although similar cases did not encounter yield risks. commoditywx.com/news/2026101…
Teleconnection shifts in the 11-15 day need a little more help to support critical rains for France wheat. commoditywx.com/news/2026101…
Persistently-positive ABNA, WPO, and especially GLAAM, thanks to Super-Niño, continues to fuel very warm Q4 narrative for Lower 48.
October is on track for 3rd warmest on record for U.S. heating demand. This is only month that pre-2000s year holds top spot for warmest: 1963.
Possible MJO influences in late October generally support continued wetter route than much of the modeling for N. Brazil and Argentina. commoditywx.com/news/2026101…
Models lost U.S. HDD demand over weekend as combination of super El Niño and strong negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) continues warm to very warm autumn narrative. Oct on track for 3rd warmest HDDs and 1st hottest CDDs.
DC surges into 80s over net two days before diving into 50s for highs and 40s for lows this weekend.
Incredibly strong positive global atmospheric angular momentum blowing away daily record peaks from 1997 and 2015. This Super El Niño is superior and dominating the global atmosphere.
