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Joined September 2017
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Most crypto chat this week is about Washington and subpoenas. We think that's the slow story. The new Congress doesn't sit until January.
The faster one is rates. Core at 0.3% for a third month and the 2-year touching 4.71% is rough on anything that needs cheap money, and ETH (-7.6% in November) is feeling it more than BTC (-3.8%).
Our base case is BTC loses $73,600, held three days running, before it sees $80,000 again. If it holds and yields ease, we've misread this.
Anyone still bidding ETH here?
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Core held at 0.3% for a third month, even with oil down 23% in November.
Tariffs, energy and AI-related demand are doing the work, not petrol.
25bp in December looks locked. 50bp went from zero to a small chance.
Not a great backdrop for debt-funded AI into CoreWeave tonight.
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Market wrap before bed 🌙
Stocks ripped 2%+. Oil dumped. Chips flew.
BTC stayed parked near 2-month lows around $73.7k.
When crypto sits out a risk-on day, it's telling you something: right now it's trading Washington, not the Nasdaq.
CPI is the next test. Sleep well, stay sharp. 👀
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Crypto spent nearly $200m on the midterms through Fairshake and a Tether-backed PAC.
The return: Democrats control both chambers, and from January they can subpoena the industry and the Trump family's crypto business.
Cryptonary take: The policy tailwind was always tied to one party. The risk now is less new laws, more two years of hearings and headlines.
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Everyone is watching Nvidia's earnings on 17 November.
The date that may matter more is 18 November. House committees have asked for a closed briefing on the board's probe into Jensen Huang.
China is only about 9% of Nvidia's revenue, and its best chips were already barred there. So the risk isn't lost China sales. It's Nvidia's standing in Washington, where Huang has been the one negotiating access.
Cryptonary take: Earnings tell you about this quarter. The 18th could tell you about the next few years.
A protocol can generate millions in revenue without passing any of it to token holders.
Before calling its token undervalued, ask:
Who pays the protocol?
Who receives the fees?
What reaches token holders?
Revenue growth doesn’t always mean token value growth.
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You guys are all our youngsters.
It’s 2026 and you’re exposing the “Sahil Files” like it’s breaking news.
We were exposing this guy back in November 2024.
In an industry full of scammers, rugs, paid shills and course sellers, we’ve been calling out the bullshit long before it became popular.
We shoot straight with you. Always have, always will.
BTC made another low overnight, and the bounce has already lost ground. We’re still cautious.
On Binance spot, we’re watching $76,400 above and $75,200 below. Reclaim $76,400 and hold it on a retest, and the recovery becomes more credible. Break below $75,200 and struggle to reclaim it, and sellers remain in control.
Spot selling has eased over the last few hours. Buyers haven’t done enough to reverse yesterday’s damage.
Zcash is holding up better than BTC, but its overnight bounce has faded too.
US jobs data lands at 8:30am ET. We’d rather wait for a recovery that holds than chase the first bounce.
Nasdaq closed down 5.5%.
BTC is down 5.3%. ETH down 7.8%.
ZEC? Down 3.9%, trading around $1,238.
It’s taking the hit too. Just a smaller one.
Meanwhile, Zcash’s NU7 upgrade is scheduled for block 3,543,405, cutting target block times from 75 seconds to 25.
does ZEC keep holding up once the upgrade excitement passes?
Strength before a catalyst gets our attention.
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Democrats Took Congress. Is Crypto in Trouble? teapawt.net/i/broadcasts/2pekAkqWl…
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Crypto is not easy money.
You’re competing against people no morals, better information, faster access and deeper pockets.
Your only chance to make it is by investing in better quality info you and the people you meet.
Stop cheaping out on your research and information sources.
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My intern take on this:
If your business model is built entirely around extracting value from your customers, eventually your only way to grow is by finding new ones.
But when those new customers keep losing money, you’re fighting an uphill battle. You’re constantly replacing the people you’ve already burned.
This isn’t even a crypto issue. It’s just common sense business.
However, without new people coming in, traders are forced into highly competitive environments with limited upside. Pumpfun *must* exponentially grow as a social app if we want our ecosystem to grow.
We’re in an untapped market that’s yet to see growth at levels comparable to major social apps.
Since May, our Daily Active Traders are up over 7x, clocking in at over 50,000 last week despite weak market conditions.
Alongside this, we’re already over $30,000,000 into our journey of becoming the most rewarding app on Earth.
I firmly believe the Pumpfun app becomes one of the biggest social apps in the world, and that we get there by giving users a bigger share of what the app earns than any platform before us.
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Fed Update, Big Tech Blood Batch, HYPE Is Pumping. WTF is Next? teapawt.net/i/broadcasts/1mGPaZvwy…
BTC dipped below $80K and suddenly every one on CT is a macro senior crypto analyst and calling for $60K.
Meanwhile, prediction markets putting 75k at 20% and 85k at 26%.
Everyone is an analyst when its just opinions on the line.
If your guru isn’t risking his own money, follow someone who does.
BTC dipped below $80K and suddenly every one on CT is a macro senior crypto analyst and calling for $60K.
Meanwhile, prediction markets putting 75k at 20% and 85k at 26%.
Everyone is an analyst when its just opinions on the line.
If your guru isn’t risking his own money, follow someone who does.
ZEC being down 11% since Wednesday.
While, $50M just flowed into the Zcash ETF in 3 days shows how bipolar the industry.
Are we getting an insane entry or becoming generational exit liquidity?
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Market’s so boring right now, even scammers stopped DMing me.
Looks like a good time to accumulate.
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