🗳️ Reporting UK Election Results & Collating Polling Data | A Project By @mattftommo | In Partnership with @NavigatePol
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📊 | Nowcast, By-Election Results, Opinion Polling & More | electionmaps.uk
🗺️ | Purchase Election Posters Here | electionmapsuk.etsy.com
It's a big few days for international elections, but don't forget this week's 6 council by-elections:
🙋 Mid Argyll (Argyll & Bute)
🌹 Worksop East (Bassetlaw)
➡️ St James (Dudley)
🔶 Beechwood & Heath (Halton)
🌳 Dover Beck (Newark & Sherwood)
🌳 Southwell (Nottinghamshire)
General Election Nowcast - 25/10/26:
LAB: 327 (-84) | 28.3% (Maj. of 4)
CON: 125 (+4) | 21.1%
LDM: 66 (-6) | 9.3%
RFM: 52 (+47) | 21.9%
SNP: 38 (+29) | 2.7%
PLC: 8 (+4) | 1.0%
GRN: 7 (+3) | 8.9%
RES: 1 (+1) | 3.7%
Oth: 7 (+2) | 2.9%
electionmaps.uk/nowcast
🌹 | Highest Labour vote share with ANY pollster since October 2024.
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 32% (+5)
CON: 24% (+3)
RFM: 20% (-3)
LDM: 9% (+1)
GRN: 8% (-5)
SNP: 3% (-1)
RES: 3% (=)
Via @Ipsos_in_the_UK, 15-22 Oct.
Changes w/ 10-15 Sep.
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 32% (+5)
CON: 24% (+3)
RFM: 20% (-3)
LDM: 9% (+1)
GRN: 8% (-5)
SNP: 3% (-1)
RES: 3% (=)
Via @Ipsos_in_the_UK, 15-22 Oct.
Changes w/ 10-15 Sep.
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 30% (+1)
RFM: 22% (-2)
CON: 20% (=)
GRN: 10% (+1)
LDM: 9% (=)
SNP: 3% (+1)
Via @OpiniumResearch, 21-23 Oct.
Changes w/ 7-9 Oct.
In Friday's @NavigatePol weekly roundup, I looked into the effect budgets have on the Government's polling figures. The answer? Hardly at all.
Average change in polling: -0.4 pts
Only 4 of the last 21 budgets have caused a shift greater than 2pts!
This week's Weekly Roundup is out...
Burnhing Gas | Train and Simple | Fiscal Attraction
The Government gave Jackdaw the green light this week, as Andy Burnham found time between decisions on Britain’s energy future to tackle the equally weighty matter of someone playing TikToks aloud on the train. From North Sea drilling to the quiet carriage, no brief is apparently too big or too small. But with the Budget coming next week, all eyes now turn to the Chancellor – whose announcements may prove rather harder to greet with a polite request to turn it down.
And do Budget's impact the polls? Head over to our website the find out what @electionmapsuk found looking at what the last six Chancellors' Budgets did to their Government's standings amongst the public. Spoiler alert: it's much easier to do wrong than right...
Senedd Voting Intention:
PLC: 33% (-2)
RFM: 30% (+1)
LAB: 15% (+4)
CON: 11% (=)
GRN: 6% (=)
LDM: 4% (=)
Via @BeaufortLtd, 21 Sep - 11 Oct.
Changes w/ 2026 Election.
MRP Poll | Labour Largest Party | 46 Short:
LAB: 280 | 27%
RFM: 130 | 24%
CON: 116 | 21%
LDM: 62 | 10%
SNP: 26 | 3%
PLC: 8 | 1%
GRN: 6 | 10%
Ind: 3
Via @GoodGrowthFdn, 5-10 Sep.
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 26% (+1)
CON: 21% (-1)
RFM: 20% (-2)
GRN: 13% (+2)
LDM: 9% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Via @FindoutnowUK, 21-22 Oct.
Changes w/ 14 Oct.
Aggregate Result of the 143 Council By-Elections Since the 2026 Local Elections:
CON: 29 (-1) | 19% (-2)
RFM: 26 (+5) | 22% (+10)
LAB: 26 (-3) | 20% (-3)
LDM: 24 (+5) | 14% (+1)
GRN: 16 (+3) | 14% (-2)
PLC: 11 (=) | 3% (+1)
Ind: 5 (-7) | 4% (-3)
SNP: 4 (+1) | 3% (-2)
Loc: 2 (-2) | 1% (-1)
RES: 0 (-) | 1% (+1)
electionmaps.uk/council-by-e…
Last night was the Conservatives’ best in a long time: four wins from five contests, three of them gains.
That takes them to 29 wins since May’s local elections, more than any other party (Reform 26, Labour 26, Lib Dems 24).
Hartlebury (Wychavon) Council By-Election Result:
🌳 CON: 49.9% (-7.6)
➡️ RFM: 37.7% (New)
🌹 LAB: 12.4% (New)
No GRN (-20.3) or LDM (-15.8) as previous.
Conservative HOLD.
Changes w/ 2023.
Calverley & Farsley (Leeds) Council By-Election Result:
🌳 CON: 40.2% (+3.6)
🌹 LAB: 36.8% (+9.5)
➡️ RFM: 12.0% (-4.8)
🌍 GRN: 5.9% (-10.4)
◼️ RES: 2.6% (New)
🔶 LDM: 1.6% (-1.5)
⚪ Yorks: 1.0% (New)
Conservative GAIN from Labour.
Changes w/ 2026.
Hertford Kingsmead (East Hertfordshire) Council By-Election Result:
🌳 CON: 35.3% (+8.9)
🌍 GRN: 32.4% (-4.4)
➡️ RFM: 15.5% (New)
🌹 LAB: 10.1% (-5.8)
🔶 LDM: 6.7% (-14.3)
Conservative GAIN from Green.
Changes w/ 2023.
Grantham St Wulfram's (South Kesteven) Council By-Election Result:
🌳 CON: 38.3% (+4.6)
➡️ RFM: 25.1% (New)
🙋 Ind: 13.1% (New)
🌹 LAB: 12.4% (-3.8)
🌍 GRN: 6.5% (-7.1)
🙋 Ind: 4.7% (New)
No Inds (-21.8, -2.2) as previous.
Conservative GAIN from Independent.
Changes w/ 2023.
Saron (Carmarthenshire) Council By-Election Result:
🌼 PLC: 43.9% (+3.5)
➡️ RFM: 28.0% (New)
🌹 LAB: 17.6% (-21.2)
🌳 CON: 4.9% (New)
🙋 Ind: 4.5% (New)
🔶 LDM: 1.2% (New)
No Ind (-13.2) as previous.
Plaid Cymru GAIN from Labour.
Changes w/ 2022.
MRP Voting Intention
(FPTP | FPTP with Tactical Voting | PR):
LAB: 25% | 27% | 23%
CON: 19% | 19% | 18%
LDM: 11% | 9% | 10%
RFM: 22% | 22% | 23%
GRN: 9% | 8% | 11%
RES: 8% | 8% | 10%
Seat outcomes below:
Via @FindoutnowUK & @ElectCalculus, 22 Sep - 12 Oct.
Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 28% (=)
CON: 23% (-1)
RFM: 22% (+1)
LDM: 10% (-1)
GRN: 8% (+1)
RES: 5% (=)
SNP: 3% (+1)
Via @Moreincommon_, 16-19 Oct.
Changes w/ 9-12 Oct.