Gavekal

Headline US-China trade figures have declined substantially in recent years as a result of multiple trade wars. But in this interview, China strategist Thomas Gatley explains that the trade decoupling is not what it seems: exporters have devised strategies to evade the tariffs, meaning actual US-China trade is stronger than it appears—a finding with implications for China’s other trade disputes.

The reaction of markets after the Democratic Party won control of both houses of the US Congress in Tuesday’s midterm elections suggests investors expect big shifts in the two narratives that have dominated financial markets in 2026: the AI capex boom, and the US war against Iran and its impact on global energy prices. In this video interview, Gavekal US chief economist Will Denyer examines how these all-important narratives are set to evolve in the post-election environment.

With US treasury bonds having gotten more reasonably valued, Chief US economist Will Denyer says that both nominal bonds and TIPS deserve a place in balanced portfolios. In this video interview, he explains how the two instruments offer protection against different economic outcomes, with TIPS preferred in an inflationary bust and nominal treasuries in a deflationary downturn. While the relatively high risk of an inflationary bust currently favors TIPS, he argues that a further rise in market inflation expectations could prompt a hawkish Federal Reserve response, creating a tactical opportunity to shift toward nominal treasuries.

Indonesia’s equity market has suffered a sharp sell-off after MSCI warned that persistent concerns over ownership transparency, market manipulation and weak regulatory enforcement could see the country stripped of its emerging market status. In this video interview, emerging markets analyst Rohan Daswani discusses whether Jakarta’s latest reforms can restore investor confidence, the risks of further capital outflows and currency weakness, and what Indonesia’s troubles mean for other emerging markets.

US inflation accelerated in September, with the headline consumer price index rising 3.7% year-on-year, up from 3.4% in August. This was hardly surprising given elevated energy prices, which were bound to feed through to consumer prices.

US manufacturing capacity and production are both improving, but the country remains far from being able to meet more of its domestic demand. In this video interview, US economist Tan Kai Xian explains why labor shortages, compounded by tight immigration policies, are a bigger obstacle to expanding US manufacturing than a lack of physical capacity. With Washington pressing other countries to curb excess production, the risk is that trade restrictions drive US inflation even higher, rather than deliver the intended revival in domestic manufacturing.

So far, India has cushioned the impact of the energy shock by forcing state-owned refiners to bear losses from selling fuel at below-market prices. This strategy will prove unsustainable if oil prices do not fall within the next few months, forcing a choice between higher retail fuel prices and greater fiscal support.

With less than four weeks to go before the US midterm elections, the Democratic Party is odds-on to win the House of Representatives and may take control of the Senate too. In this video interview, Gavekal chief US economist Will Denyer looks at what the expected electoral swing to the Democrats is likely to mean for the possibility of impeachment hearings, fiscal policy, tariffs, financial regulation and legislation on artificial intelligence.

China’s infrastructure investment fell -5.4% YoY in the year through August, a decline that has been reflected in the order books of major state-owned infrastructure builders. The drop is driven by several factors, not least underwhelming returns on infrastructure projects and heightened central-government scrutiny of investment.