political editor at @the_postnz. tipline: 📞021 241 1398 📧[email protected] 📧[email protected]
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Joined February 2009
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Pick your path through election night!
I've laid out four very plausible scenarios for how the night could go, and some markers you can look for to work out which timeline we are in.
And I've built a tool to let you work build your own scenario - overhang and all:
One thing that I think is not super well-understood about the overhang is how the wasted vote interacts with it.
If Opportunity end up at 4.9%, the chances of a big overhang on the right drop a lot - but they probably won't mind as they will probably be in Govt anyway.
If Opportunity are at 5.1% the chances of a big overhang go up considerably as there would (on current polling) be very little wasted vote. But Opportunity being in Parliament make it far harder for the right to govern even with an overhang.
Electoral Commission have closed two booths early today thanks to the weather.
The Māngere booth went 66% for Labour at the last election while the Takanini one went 61% National. But the Māngere booth was quite a bit larger.
Early voting is closing in on 2020 levels - where there was two extra days and a pandemic on. Likely well over half of the total vote will have already happened.
NEW: In our final poll Chris Hipkins leads in preferred PM, but Luxon has narrowed the gap.
Luxon has also pulled even with Hipkins on the question of: "They will make the right decisions for New Zealand, even when they are unpopular."
(Worth noting we do pref PM a bit differently - we only offer the choice of Luxon, Hipkins, neither, or unsure.) thepost.co.nz/politics/36111…
Our final poll of polls average:
- Labour: 29.3%
- National: 27.5%
- Green: 14.7%
- ACT: 10.1%
- NZ First: 10.1%
- Opp: 6.2%
- TPM: 1.3%
if you want to have a play with the tool yourself it's at the bottom of this story thepost.co.nz/politics/36111…
