building @forecastfdn joey_roth on tg genmin on github🌷
San Francisco, CA
Joined January 2007
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What started as leverage for prediction markets has evolved over months of optimization into a fundamentally new market structure
We’re starting with BTC on Base and listing more markets after launch
Forecast szn
@ForecastFDN
I’m building Forecast to be your ally and your weapon. The protocol and LPs earn from OI rather from traders being wrong. Long information, long traders
Trade BTC, the 2028 US election, and soon tokenized equities, sports and other prediction markets with leverage and no liquidations
Forecast enables you to trade with maximum efficiency without the threat of losing your position prematurely. Forecast is not your counterparty. The protocol and LPs earn from demand, not from traders being wrong
We are opening our whitelist one final time before launch. Join here for access: forecastprotocol.xyz/mainnet…
Imagine trading these with max efficient leverage and no liquidation on @forecastfdn
Soon
003 was great for @ForecastFDN recommend applying
Applications for Base Batches 004, our fourth cohort, are officially open!
This is an intensive, high-touch program for top early-stage founders building on the bleeding edge onchain.
You'll get direct support from the Base ecosystem team, and our broader network of high-quality operators, investors, and partners to give you the resources you need to scale fast. We want to back experienced teams building the future of global finance.
Apply below, really excited to work together and see what you're building!
I designed Forecast from one premise: a market is an inference machine, and capital is its compute. The objective is information discovery per unit of capital-time: how much information a dollar can carry, and for how long. This one objective contains the others. The venue that maximizes it gives traders the best execution, gives each dollar the most leverage and reuse, and pays the pool behind them the most yield for the least risk. They rise together. That is the flywheel.
Perps make traders spend that capital on defense before any liquidation fires. Traders idle margin, cut size, shorten horizons, and drop views that may be right at the horizon but can’t survive the path. When liquidation fires, it destroys information twice. It deletes a funded view before its horizon. Then it turns the view into a forced order. The order says nothing about btc. An account ran out of collateral, so the venue closed it. Every open position is then marked against a price that order moved. In a cascade the loop closes: forced orders move the price, the price forces more orders, and for those minutes the market’s estimate of bitcoin is an estimate of its own margin engine.
Forecast removes the obligation. A position is a bounded claim, bought outright. Maximum loss and the price of capital-time are fixed at creation. The claim can trade near zero and recover. It cannot create debt, so the venue never stops, seizes, or socializes anything.
Options also bound loss. But an option has a writer, and a writer can be margined, squeezed, and blown out. Forecast has no writer. The far side of every claim is one pooled reserve that stays funded in every reachable state. A trader who pays for Friday keeps Friday.
Whoever discovers the most information per unit of capital-time takes the informed flow, then the depth, then the price itself. I’m building Forecast to be that market.
Joey Roth retweeted
Nuts – @joeyroth’s ability to ship complex onchain systems like @ForecastFDN never ceases to amaze me
We designed the Forecast kernel to be both immutable and formally provable end to end.
The proof stack now contains 383 machine-checked Lean theorems. The gate rejects placeholders and any proof that relies on more than two standard axioms. A second layer verifies the exact bytecode that Base will execute in KEVM so the proof does not stop at source code and trust the compiler. Every run must also catch a forbidden storage write that we deliberately inject. Miss it, and the run is invalid. This guards against formal verification’s most dangerous failure mode: a valid proof of the wrong claim.
Medusa completed 5m calls against nine safety properties this morning. Echidna completed its 5m by noon. Neither found a violation. Both are coverage gated: if they miss a path we require, the run fails.
Then we attacked the test suite itself. We generated 1,813 mutant contracts, each containing one deliberate defect, and ran the full suite against every one. The suite killed 1,707. We reviewed the survivors by hand and recorded why each survived. The campaign is now running again on the machine pictured, 540 mutants in.
Everything closes into one verification ledger tied to one exact commit. That is the commit we launch.
We designed the Forecast kernel to be both immutable and formally provable end to end.
The proof stack now contains 383 machine-checked Lean theorems. The gate rejects placeholders and any proof that relies on more than two standard axioms. A second layer verifies the exact bytecode that Base will execute in KEVM so the proof does not stop at source code and trust the compiler. Every run must also catch a forbidden storage write that we deliberately inject. Miss it, and the run is invalid. This guards against formal verification’s most dangerous failure mode: a valid proof of the wrong claim.
Medusa completed 5m calls against nine safety properties this morning. Echidna completed its 5m by noon. Neither found a violation. Both are coverage gated: if they miss a path we require, the run fails.
Then we attacked the test suite itself. We generated 1,813 mutant contracts, each containing one deliberate defect, and ran the full suite against every one. The suite killed 1,707. We reviewed the survivors by hand and recorded why each survived. The campaign is now running again on the machine pictured, 540 mutants in.
Everything closes into one verification ledger tied to one exact commit. That is the commit we launch.
Joey Roth retweeted
This week’s 🧭 spotlight is @forecastfdn by @joeyroth
Forecast adds leverage to prediction markets, giving traders a new way to express conviction on outcomes
It’s built to make prediction markets more capital-efficient and more dynamic for active traders ♾️
Joey Roth retweeted
The 2028 US election interactive preview is live: 2028election.forecastprotoco…
Whitelisted wallets get first access when real trading opens
*Current data is simulated
⚽️ 📈
We’re opening trading on our private mainnet World Cup market ahead of Sunday’s final.
Join the list here: forecastprotocol.xyz/worldcu…
Joey Roth retweeted
Just spent an hour chatting w @joeyroth in person
So bullish on him as a founder and on @ForecastFDN
Coming soon
Joey Roth retweeted
One of the protocols we are excited to build an aVault for @ForecastFDN - agnostic liquidity powering leveraged prediction markets ⚖️
Now bundle this in a vault and compound in real-time 🪬
Builder Spotlight: @ForecastFDN
Prediction markets did $63.5B in 2025 and now clear $6B+ weekly, but most of that market still runs at 1x.
Forecast is building leverage for prediction markets.
Traders can get leveraged exposure to probability moves without posting full collateral for every dollar of exposure.
A 67% → 69% move is small at 1x.
At 20x, that same move turns $25K into $40K.
At 100x, it turns $25K into $100K.
The other side is USDC supply.
LPs deposit USDC and earn from trader demand for leverage across markets, without choosing sides on outcomes.
Forecast’s design moves solvency to the pool, so binary markets can support leverage without normal price-based liquidations.
Predeposit vault is open now, and depositors get priority access when trading opens.
Forecast is bringing perps-style leverage to prediction markets.
Things are in motion. Join the wl if you haven’t already
We’re getting close to launch and just opened 500 spots for trading on our private mainnet.
Link to get on the whitelist: forecastprotocol.xyz/mainnet…
“pure mathematical wizardry with clear product market fit - like the old school days”
btw that's why i'm interested in @ForecastFDN and deposited in the now-fully pre-deposit event and shared here before
its one of the most interesting projects i came across that wasn't privacy/rwa/AI/agentinc focused
pure mathematical wizardry with clear product market fit - like the old school days