strategy is the art of sacrifice. currently: enterprise AI. previously: autonomous vehicles, uber, morganstanley. used to surf 20kgs ago.
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Joined July 2007
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most people can’t fully grok this, but it’s true.
top sales people should have the ability to out-earn even the ceo. those that can achieve these kinds of numbers are incredibly rare and can determine the fate of a business.
UPS call centre: your call is in a queue and will be answered in 13 minutes.
me (28 minutes later): 😠
“could”.
i wonder, the compute needed for this is astronomical and they can’t even supply their clients. i think @alighodsi talked about this somewhere…
in mountainview today checking out Argon, the new model from @Google. initial take: legit frontier capability for enterprises and “Gemini Agent” surface area finally removes the complexity of maze of products. 👏🏼👏🏼
god’s work
I've been prototyping an automated peer review project. With current models you get human level peer review for about $0.10 of tokens. For $5 you can rederive every result, check every statistical inference, and audit every paper cited in both directions.
There are about 100m papers in the scientific corpus. Most are not important. Many are sloppy. For structural reasons it's essentially impossible to change published work, even to correct a typo.
For $500m today you can thoroughly audit every paper ever written. Every p-hacked result, every plagiarist, every fabrication, every citation club, everything.
I don't have $500m so instead I build a tree, focusing on the 1% of papers that carry 99% of the signal, doing a cheap first pass looking for obvious problems. I can find 90% of the nonsense for a few hundred dollars of tokens.
Any guesses where the biggest surprises will be found?
capitalism (market forces), good.
socialism (bigger bureaucracy), bad.
We're the most technically advanced civilization in history. And the least competent at the same time.
SpaceX can catch a rocket. Delta can't land you at JFK on time, makes you rawdog the flight, and loses your bag.
Amazon gets you a package in 4 hours. The DMV needs 6 weeks for a license.
AI can pass the bar exam. Public schools can't teach kids how to do basic math.
Your watch can detect AFib. Your insurance needs 3 weeks to approve a visit.
Your car can spot a pedestrian and brake on its own. Your city can't keep needles off the sidewalk.
AI can design a new protein. Your hospital can't send you a correct bill.
AI can draw a building in minutes. The city takes three years to approve a duplex.
Satellites and cameras can track a car across the city. A man with 30 arrests walks out the next morning.
the glee this guy and his ilk derive in orchestrating the theft of other people’s assets is breathtakingly evil. obviously it never stops with just the billionaires. it creates precedent for grifters to continue you confiscate private property. we need to read more history.
i need to create a skill that removes jason calacanis from the ‘All-In Pod’ (@theallinpod) podcasts. there’s almost zero signal from him and he talks far too much.
i’m not sure who needs to hear this, but most humans like the story attached to the art they love. who makes it is almost as important. an AI has no emotional story to attach to. /end.
Don’t always agree, but i always feel smarter listening to Thiel. Mathias Dopfner in a new interview:
youtu.be/B7yl7fEHeKM?si=nij1…
knew there was an upside.
but, does this mean people without cant or dont have high curiosity? probably not. alas, i will take the crutch.
surprising this stuff needs to be said.
'I have never yet heard of an economy being taxed into prosperity. I have never heard of a poor person spending himself into wealth.'
Economist Arthur Laffer explains why he believes Britain has a 'totally dysfunctional' tax system.
Watch in full | spectator.com/article/livest… | @realartlaffer | @Simmons__
fascinating interactive by FT:
“Joining the dots between big AI” data by Sona Asset Management (large credit hedge fund):
$3.6tn of disclosed commitments over 176 deals and 202 entities.
“Amazon has invested in OpenAI (~$50bn) while also securing a ~$100bn compute commitment from it; Microsoft’s ~$135bn ownership recapitalisation of OpenAI sits alongside OpenAI’s ~$250bn purchase commitment back to Microsoft Azure.”
ft.com/content/8475dc9b-b2d4…
