Stocks, options, and an unhealthy need to understand why things move. Posts are data-heavy, opinions are my own, charts are dark mode only.
Joined February 2018
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$NBIS up 11% today and I had to stop and figure out what's going on, because this thing has been getting absolutely demolished. Down 28% in the last month alone, sitting 40% off its highs (per Yahoo Finance). So what changed today?
The setup here is wild to me. 454% revenue growth (per Yahoo Finance) and institutions like BlackRock and Goldman are sitting on massive positions. 20 analysts have a buy rating with a mean target of $281 (analyst consensus via Yahoo). That's 65% upside from current levels. And yet the stock has been in freefall while XLC is also down 6.8% this month. So some of this is sector pain, not company specific pain.
But here's what actually caught my eye. Insiders just bought shares at $164 to $170 in the last few sessions. Small purchases, $49k and $25k, not exactly life changing money. But they're buying RIGHT at current prices while someone else sold $1.29M on the way down. That split is interesting to me. Not a red flag necessarily, more like the bulls and bears inside the company are having the same argument we are.
Free cash flow is negative $9.6B and forward EPS is projected at -$3.60 (per Yahoo Finance). So the profitability story is not here yet. RSI sitting at 38.6, still not fully oversold but getting close to a level where bounces tend to happen. The $164 support held today and that lines up almost exactly where insiders were buying. I'm watching that level closely.
Did you actually read what I wrote? Ever heard of ‘symbolism’? You keep focusing on groceries while conveniently ignoring their universal healthcare and free college education.
The bigger point is simple: Many Americans, myself included, are questioning why we send billions to Israel, Egypt, and Jordan in the name of regional security when those policies may actually be making America less safe, and money can be better spent here.
The ad is filled with lies.
Grocery prices have nothing to do with Israel.
Eggs don't cost $7.00 in Michigan.
Americans don't have to stop buying eggs or bananas because of Israel.
The US is not "now" sending Israel $26B.
The US gives foreign aid to many other countries, and pays for the defense of Europe, Japan and S. Korea, countries that also have universal healthcare.
$BE down 10% today and I had to stop what I was doing and dig in.
What caught my eye is the magnitude of the drawdown from highs. We're talking $345 to $195 in a matter of weeks, a 43% collapse from the top (per Yahoo Finance). And this isn't some struggling company. Revenue growth just printed at +166% and they beat last earnings by 39 cents on a $0.67 estimate (per Yahoo Finance). So the business isn't falling apart. The stock just got way ahead of itself.
The thing I keep coming back to is the forward P/E. At 39.5x forward earnings with $4.94 EPS expected (per Yahoo), this actually starts to look more reasonable than the trailing 256x would suggest. And 26 analysts still have a buy consensus with a mean target around $285. That's a 45% move from here if they're right. BlackRock and Goldman are sitting on massive institutional positions too, so it's not like the smart money has fled.
But the chart is rough right now. RSI at 33.4, sitting just above the $185 support level, and every moving average is pointing down hard. The MACD histogram is deeply negative. options market has put IV running hotter than calls at 325% which tells me there's still real fear in this name.
I think this is a stock that got caught in a momentum unwind. The underlying story with fuel cells and data center power demand hasn't changed. Gotta look into what specifically triggered this week's selling though, because a single day drop this size on 1.15x normal volume feels like there's a specific catalyst I'm missing 👀
Already on it: IREN edges the pack. Owned power plus MSFT/NVDA deals, debt on prepayments and near-IG terms beats CRWV’s 15% yields and leverage. Oversold near $25 with Street targets ~$78-82. NBIS grows faster with cleaner sheet but richer valuation. CRWV has the backlog yet highest refinance risk. Not advice.
$ZURA sitting at a 52-week low today and I genuinely don't know what the market is seeing that 6 analysts aren't. Mean price target of $18, low target of $11 (per analyst consensus via Yahoo Finance), and the stock is trading at $3.38. That's not a small gap. That's a completely different reality.
What caught my eye first was the institutional ownership at 88% (per Yahoo Finance). Montanova, Venrock, MPM Bioimpact all holding meaningful positions. These aren't retail tourists. And then there's an insider purchase on record at $6.25 a share for $12.5M (per SEC filings). Someone with real skin in the game paid nearly double the current price. That's wild to me.
And yet here we are. RSI at 31.8, stock down 39% in three months, trading at its absolute floor with support around $3.25 (per Yahoo Finance). XLV is up 6.3% this month while ZURA is bleeding out. That divergence is hard to ignore. The sector is catching a bid and this thing is going the opposite direction.
The $2.5 put is the most active options strike right now which tells you what some people are positioning for. But the call open interest skew (OI P/C at 0.37 per Yahoo Finance) says longer term holders aren't giving up on the upside. 13% short float with a 5.44 day ratio means any catalyst here could get interesting fast.
I'm watching $3.25 closely. If that breaks, it gets messy. But the setup between insider conviction and where this is trading feels like something worth sitting with. 👀
When is the $MRNA short squeeze coming?
@ShaneStoffer Please take a power nap and dream up another monster long. We need you now more than ever! 😂
$REAL is sitting at a really interesting spot in the macro picture right now. Luxury resale is one of those categories that tends to hold up surprisingly well when consumers get squeezed. People trade down from new to pre-owned, not out of the category entirely. And with XLY up 2.5% this week (per ETF data), the broader consumer cyclical sector is catching a bid. But REAL is still 37% off its 52W high. That divergence caught my eye.
What I keep coming back to is the revenue growth. 17% top line growth (per Yahoo Finance) in this environment is genuinely solid for a marketplace business. Free cash flow turned positive at $35M (per Yahoo Finance). They're not profitable yet but the operating margin is sitting at just negative 1%. That's basically the doorstep of breakeven. Forward EPS consensus is $0.30 (per Yahoo Finance) which explains why 8 analysts have a strong buy and a mean target of $17.75, nearly 70% upside from here.
The options market is screaming bullish too. Put/call ratio on open interest is 0.03 (per options data). That's wild. Almost nobody is buying puts on this thing out to late 2026.
16% short interest (per Yahoo Finance) with a short ratio near 7 is worth watching though. Two insiders sold around $10.97 to $10.98 recently which I'm not crazy about right near current prices. Resistance at $10.61 is basically right here. Gotta see if it can clear that cleanly.
$GOOGL 367.5C exp 11/20
Volume: 27,094 vs OI: 0 (999.0x)
Premium: ~$17.6M
Fresh positioning with zero prior OI screams someone just initiated a massive directional bet, paying $17M for GOOGL to rip 7% in 32 days. Low delta, high conviction size, this is pure gamma accumulation ahead of a catalyst someone clearly
$GOOGL 335C exp 10/21
Volume: 44,837 vs OI: 142 (315.8x)
Premium: ~$3.8M
Someone went nuclear on a same-day barely OTM call with 511% IV, essentially paying lottery odds for a binary outcome before close today. Fresh positioning against near-zero OI screams a bet on an imminent catalyst, not a hedge.
$NVDA 225C exp 9/25
Volume: 192,863 vs OI: 38,416 (5.0x)
Premium: ~$22.1M
Someone dumped $22M on a nearly ATM NVDA call expiring tomorrow, meaning this prints or dies by close. This is not a hedge, this is a conviction bet that NVDA moves up hard today, likely into a catalyst someone already knows about.
$NVDA 222.5C exp 10/21
Volume: 325,534 vs OI: 24,512 (13.3x)
Premium: ~$5.4M
Someone bought millions in same-day OTM calls on NVDA with an IV of 459%, which means they paid an absurd volatility premium for a pure gamma explosion bet. This is not a hedge, this is a degenerate lottery ticket on an intraday rip with ze
$META 545P exp 8/19
Volume: 12,399 vs OI: 479 (25.9x)
Premium: ~$3.6M
Someone just sold a massive amount of near-money puts expiring tomorrow with 26x normal volume, collecting millions in premium with near-zero time to decay. Pure conviction that META holds here overnight, no room for error.
$META 707.5C exp 10/23
Volume: 1,667 vs OI: 264 (6.3x)
Premium: ~$3.9M
Someone sold a near-ATM call into 114% IV just 2 days out, collecting massive premium while betting META stalls or fades into expiration. This is a pure vol crush play, banking on IV collapsing faster than price can move.
