ALT As a result, for those without children, the system became very binary. There was a powerful administrative pressure to search for 35 hours a week for full-time work, and an incapacity benefit regime with no job search rules and far greater generosity to those out of work...

ALT chart showing Quarterly growth in real GDP, chained-volume measure, outturn, Bank of England and OBR forecasts: UK

ALT chart showing Proportion of PIP recipients aged 16-64 who report that PIP enables them to undertake various activities: England and Wales, May-June 2026

ALT quote graphic Nye Cominetti, Principal Economist at the Resolution Foundation, said: “Low hourly pay in the UK has stopped falling for the first time in over a decade. This is the result of the minimum wage moving to a ‘hold steady’ phase after years of being ramped up. It remains the case however that the share of workers on low pay is vastly lower than it was a decade ago. “Today’s data may have implications for next year’s minimum wage. With hourly pay growth surprising on the upside, the minimum wage next year may be significantly higher than the forecast of £13.18 published by the LBC back in April. However, the LPC now have more wiggle room on setting minimum wage rates, so the final number will come down to their judgement.”

ALT As a result, for those without children, the system became very binary. There was a powerful administrative pressure to search for 35 hours a week for full-time work, and an incapacity benefit regime with no job search rules and far greater generosity to those out of work...

ALT chart showing Average headroom held against fiscal rules by previous Chancellors and by the current Chancellor at set points in time: UK, June 2010 – October 2026

ALT chart showing Proportion of PIP recipients aged 16-64 who report the top ten most common conditions: England and Wales, May-June 2026

ALT Titled "1: the crisis never really ended", with a photo of a household energy bill showing £366.85. Text: wholesale gas prices have climbed back towards their crisis highs, and there is a real risk of another spike in early 2027. Last time, in 2022, the Government provided universal support costing £44 billion, with the richer half of households getting more than half the benefit.

ALT Titled "2: The benefit system doesn't capture everyone who needs help", with a thermometer and snowflake icon. Text: basing eligibility for support on receipt of means-tested benefits would only reach around 1 in 4 households, missing most of the poorest half. And it isn't only the very poorest who struggle: in 2022-23, almost two-in-ten of the second-poorest fifth of households couldn't afford to keep their home warm.

ALT Titled "3: There's a smarter way to target help", with a thermometer icon and a photo of a crowd on a street. Text: we should instead base eligibility on the income of the highest earner in a household. A £24,000 threshold would reach around two-in-five households, and 75 per cent of the poorest four deciles, nearly as well as using total household income but far simpler to run.

ALT Titled "4: Not perfect, but ready for winter", with a photo of snow-covered terraced houses with a For Sale sign, a January calendar icon, and a photo of a crowd. Text: it comes with trade-offs, favouring pensioners, and around 490,000 working-age families with children would miss out. But a £2 billion scheme could give £175 to each eligible household. The Government should start building its support now, so it is ready this winter.

ALT Chart showing average gap between private rents and Local Housing Allowance, as a proportion of the LHA rate: Great Britain, April 2012 to September 2026