Sanjeev Sabhlok

If you’re wondering if there have been any lessons from COVID that have been learned, I offer you this hot off the press from one of our best medical institutions

The world's first great economic superpower was Indian, fed by the world’s greatest river system. Its key drivers were its ports. This area sustained the first long-haul trade network in history, lasting over a thousand years. Episode 3 of The True Cradle. 1/45 🧵

THIS GIVES AWAY THE ENTIRE STORY OF WHY COVID PANIC STARTED: The initial cases were isolated in the EMERGENCY DEPARTMENT of the Central Hospital of Wuhan. As a general rule, NO GENERAL HOSPITAL HAS EVEN MODESTLY COMPETENT ISOLATION FACILITIES. Second, general hospitals are the BEST WAY to transmit infectious disease. I suspect China did not have (probably still doesn't have) any COMPETENT ISOLATION HOSPITALS, to which such cases should be moved. The study of the eradication of smallpox has shown how crucial competent isolation is. It must be 100% secure - not the slightest possibility of leakage. Else it won't work. As part of his work in the smallpox eradication program Donald Henderson repeatedly kept writing about how smallpox COULD NOT BE CONTROLLED IN GENERAL HOSPITALS. He insisted on home isolation protected 24/7 by two guards. Even incompetent isolation hospitals are better than no isolation hospitals: From the late 19th century, Western nations always isolated smallpox patients in isolation hospitals - which is why there was a drastic reduction in the prevalence of the disease (vaccines did very little, despite the myths about its effectiveness). However, most of these hospitals were not good enough, so the disease never actually disappeared in the West. DEDUCTION: When a new (or allegedly new) virus emerges, the FIRST STEP must be to strongly isolate ALL such cases - in highly competent (and therefore very expensive) isolation hospitals. The second step must be to get a team of infectious disease experts (NOT MODELERS) to carefully study these patients and identify the nature of the disease (how transmitted, its asymptotic stage, its mortality rate, treatment options, etc.). Li Wenliang knew that isolation in the ER was worthless - the disease COULD NEVER be stopped that way. If, instead, these 7 patients had been transferred to a competent isolation hospital, local doctors like him would have been assured that the best professional investigation would be undertaken and that the risk to them would be dramatically reduced. Further, IF SYSTEMS ARE PUT IN PLACE (like "fire drills" in tall buildings) that ALL new viruses are to be isolated and studied carefully, local doctors like Li would have the assurance of a competent regime that will look into the issue. Would these measures guarantee that Li wouldn't have panicked? No, but it would have GREATLY reduced the risk of such panic. In general, it would be good to send ALL initial cases of a new virus to such hospitals - thereby creating a "scientific cocoon" - and assuring the public that a thorough investigation was being undertaken. This is what happened actually anyway in many cases. Entire general hospitals shut down and converted into isolation hospitals. But these were NOT equipped to either isolate properly or to study the cases properly. At a minimum, a strong isolation hospital system needs to be revived, as CONTINGENCY for any new disease.

Copilot's translation of Li Wenliang's message of 30 December 2019 is crucial to the START OF PANIC. What he said is clear: "TELL YOUR FAMILY AND LOVED ONES TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS". No one can therefore argue that this was purely a professional message to his medical colleagues. This was clearly intended to REACH OUTSIDE THE MEDICAL COMMUNITY. The only reason Wenliang wrote this is because he panicked. He thought a SARS-like virus had arisen and instead of conducting systematic analysis, he went straight to WARNING FAMILY AND LOVED ONES about it. (The message went VIRAL on WeChat!). The Chinese government first took heavy handed action against Li but then had to inform the public themselves. In the meantime, due to lack of trust of the government, people imagined this issue to be FAR WORSE than it actually was. When we throw a match into an ammunition dump, we can't predict exactly how the explosions will occur, but it is clear that without this initial PANICKED COMMENT BY LI, global panic on the scale that it ultimately became would not have been possible. Plus many other doctors panicked throughout the world: docs.google.com/spreadsheets…

I am absolutely amazed at AI's capability today. I gave a few sentences to ChatGPT and asked it to prepare a cloud - it has gone beyond my highest expectations. chatgpt.com/share/6ae19bfd-5…

Wouldn’t it be nice if there was at least one actually pure website? One without the usual gotchas. No asking for your email. No parts paywalled. No ads. No data collection. I think so, which is why I created teddyrookbook.com Homeschool families get every K–12 course free (with teaching guides and practice that checks answers), plus a lesson planner that builds a week-by-week plan. Science labs. Languages. Music. Etiquette. Logic. Meal planning. Trades and farming. And much more! I’m building this for my family to use and sharing with others because I’m open to feedback on how it can be better.

Fear is the "match" that "lights" pandemic panics. Forensic fire investigators look for clues to distinguish ordinary fires from arson. They look for V-shaped flame patterns, the possible ignition source and accelerants. Likewise, we need to apply forensics to pandemic panics - which cause vastly greater harm than any arson. Pandemic forensic investigators must focus on: Who started it. First and foremost, it has to be someone credible. Second, this person must display a level of fear - not uncontrolled fear, but sufficient to alarm others. Third, there must be a situation in which people do not trust their government. An Anders Tegnell can readily quell any fear, because he is trusted. Most others can't. Fourth, the flames of fear must be "fanned". The contagion of fear must spread rapidly. These days, social media does the job wonderfully. But then we also have the media which is absolutely irresponsible and incapable of asking basic questions. So how do we stop pandemic panics? We can't stop untrustworthy governments. But note that such governments don't cause panic. They come into play after the credible source has expressed fear. So the only thing we can try to do is to stop doctors from experiencing severe fear. That will mean better education, better training under leaders like Tegnell. But it will also mean having a better and always-present systems for isolation which can be quietly used to test the actual nature of the new virus. We will be most successful if we can stop the INITIAL FEAR, the INDEX CASE. Once fear is out of the bag, we can't stop the DANCING DOCTOR SYNDROME - as thousands of panicked doctors start dancing in empty hospitals - like lunatics dancing on the moon.

“One person, one data point. But the care was 10x better than anything I’ve had in France, for a price that’s completely fine.”

On this day in COVID history, October 27, 2020: The hidden Covid-19 health crisis: Elderly people are dying from isolation Source: NBC nbcnews.com/news/us-news/hid…

Fear is the "match" that "lights" pandemic panics. Forensic fire investigators look for clues to distinguish ordinary fires from arson. They look for V-shaped flame patterns, the possible ignition source and accelerants. Likewise, we need to apply forensics to pandemic panics - which cause vastly greater harm than any arson. Pandemic forensic investigators must focus on: Who started it. First and foremost, it has to be someone credible. Second, this person must display a level of fear - not uncontrolled fear, but sufficient to alarm others. Third, there must be a situation in which people do not trust their government. An Anders Tegnell can readily quell any fear, because he is trusted. Most others can't. Fourth, the flames of fear must be "fanned". The contagion of fear must spread rapidly. These days, social media does the job wonderfully. But then we also have the media which is absolutely irresponsible and incapable of asking basic questions. So how do we stop pandemic panics? We can't stop untrustworthy governments. But note that such governments don't cause panic. They come into play after the credible source has expressed fear. So the only thing we can try to do is to stop doctors from experiencing severe fear. That will mean better education, better training under leaders like Tegnell. But it will also mean having a better and always-present systems for isolation which can be quietly used to test the actual nature of the new virus. We will be most successful if we can stop the INITIAL FEAR, the INDEX CASE. Once fear is out of the bag, we can't stop the DANCING DOCTOR SYNDROME - as thousands of panicked doctors start dancing in empty hospitals - like lunatics dancing on the moon.