Political Strategist | Bodybuilder | Creator | USF Alum Founder of FBBA—Florida's Largest $BTC, Crypto, & Web3 Advocacy Org—We have passed multiple laws in FL
Florida, USA
Joined May 2018
- Tweets5.1K
- Following1.2K
- Followers7.9K
- Likes24K
Pinned Tweet
Eat Steak.
Buy Bitcoin.
Lift Weights.
Self Educate.
Buy American.
Build Businesses.
Vote America First.
Follow Honest Voices.
Mentor Future Leaders.
Step Into Your Golden Age.
I think betting markets are better then polls, even with the very obvious problems betting markets have.
BTW this is a military contract in the making. Maybe silly at first, but imagine a military vehicle with these capabilities.
A tank that can over jump a trench. LAV that could quickly scale a small building or hill to mount a more strategic position.
Or simply hopping over minefields.
It’s a combination of the Trump effect and republicans not trusting pollsters (therefore not answering their calls or inquiries)
I wish you could see the betting results from strictly those who live in Texas.
Are prediction markets biased by white men? Republicans? Young people?
Dartmouth professor Eric Zitzewitz analyzed 145 years of election prediction market data, spanning multiple exchanges and countries. His findings:
• No systematic evidence of political bias across different eras, countries, and offices.
• No systematic evidence of pricing bias based on candidates’ race, gender, or age in the recent elections studied.
• Traders weren’t always representative of the voting population, yet that didn’t translate into systematic bias in election forecasts.
The paper points to a powerful mechanism: people who spot a mispriced outcome have a financial incentive to correct it. Even if some participants trade on personal preferences, informed traders keep prices grounded in reality.
Open competition incentivizes research, challenges consensus, and gives the best ideas a chance to surface. People are rewarded for being right, regardless of their background or preferences.
The paper does find some pricing biases, including slight overpricing of longshots and underpricing of favorites. Its central finding on election markets remains: no systematic evidence of political or demographic bias.
In an increasingly polarized world, these markets give us something valuable: an impartial source of information shaped by people with an incentive to get it right.
After Brazil’s outcome, important to note that prediction markets are a tool, not a crystal ball.
This should help taper expectations for a blue wave
Thomas visiting the capitol today is a bad sign for the Birthright citizenship case tomorrow
Probably what happened is it was a 5-4 ruling
But Thomas was allowed to write the decent with Kavanaugh
And they probably did as they always do, where their dissent is essentially and instruction manual on how to overturn the ruling later on
Thomas visiting today was probably to meet with certain people to discuss what to do after the ruling
And how to follow his dissent
(Would be awesome to be wrong about this)
It is well known that Justice Barrett almost always votes the same as Justice Roberts.
So however Roberts votes tomorrow she will be joining him.
Political pressure is a unique tool the presidency has that other legislative bodies don’t (or at least they can’t use it as effectively)
I think republicans could actually keep the house and the senate
CNN: It’s far from a guarantee that Democrats take the house
Ipsos, MU Law, NBC Poll: 🔵 Dem +3
Need to control with Redistricting: 🔵 Dem +3/4
2026 Midterm Odds Per @Kalshi
Senate: 🔴 Republicans: 57%
House: 🔵 Democrats: 78%
I remember when I first learned that your printer is a spy 🕵️♂️
oh YES.
Since the 1980s, Xerox and Canon made a secret deal with the US Secret Service. every color laser printer now embeds invisible yellow dots on every single page it produces. too small to see with the naked eye. they repeat up to 150 times per page so they survive cropping, damage, even shredding.
the dots encode:
— your printer's serial number
— the exact date and time of printing
— the manufacturer
no law requires manufacturers to tell you this. most printer manuals don't mention it. you almost certainly didn't know.
The first use case was counterfeiting. catching people printing fake money. reasonable.
Then, in 2017, Reality Winner printed a classified NSA document and mailed it to journalists. investigators cross-referenced the yellow dots with security footage. she was identified, arrested, and sentenced to 5 years.
because there is no law regulating who can request this information. no warrant requirement. no oversight. the EFF has been saying this since 2004 and nothing has changed.
you can check if your printer does this. the EFF maintains a list: eff.org/pages/list-printers-…
