SentimenTrader

High yield bond sentiment reached 81.52 on Oct. 27, nearly 30 points above $SPY sentiment.A gap this wide has occurred on just 47 of 1,966 trading days since 2019. sentimentrader.com/?utm_sour…

Just 30% of CAC 40 stocks are above their 200 day moving averages, leaving French market breadth more than 30 percentage points behind the S&P 500. After similar signals, the S&P 500 was higher a year later 89% of the time. Read more: sentimentrader.com/blog/the-…

The S&P 500 has averaged a 1.23% gain over October's last 2 trading days and November's first 3 since 1949, versus just 0.18% across all 5 day periods. It rose in 56 of 77 years. This year's stretch runs from the Oct. 28 close through the Nov. 4 close. Read more: sentimentrader.com/blog/the-…

Brazil’s election result sent $EWZ plunging 19.8% on Oct. 26. IBOV 12 Week Low % surged from 1.3% to 67.1% in a single session, while Brazil Optix collapsed from 68.1 to just 2.1. sentimentrader.com/?utm_sour…

$QQQ can have an oversold RSI reading even when most of its holdings aren't oversold. There's a big difference between a handful of stocks with RSI below 30 and a broad wave of oversold readings. RSI breadth lets you see that difference and check how QQQ performed after similar readings in the past. sentimentrader.com/?utm_sour…

Qatar sentiment flipped in a single session. Qatar sentiment jumped from 14.93 to 74.96 on Oct. 26, while Saudi Arabia sentiment rose from 21.42 to 38.28. $QAT bounced, but it's still near the low end of its six-month range. sentimentrader.com/?utm_sour…

Cloud computing stocks are still climbing, but the sentiment gap with the Nasdaq 100 has narrowed. On Oct. 23, $WCLD sentiment stood 58.6 points above $QQQ sentiment, a gap this wide seen on just six trading days since October 2019. By Oct. 26, that gap had shrunk to 34.8 points. sentimentrader.com/?utm_sour…

PPI inflation is already above 12%. Now the next CPI reading could determine whether the JK Inflation Model turns unfavorable for stocks. Annual CPI is at 3.7%. A monthly rise of roughly 0.32% at the next release could take the model from +1 to 0 if PPI stays above 9%. Read more: sentimentrader.com/blog/infl…

Only 17% of IBOV stocks remain above their 50 day averages, versus 76% above their 200 day averages. After similar gaps, IBOV was higher 6 months later in 12 of 13 completed cases. That record doesn't rule out further sharp declines along the way. Read more: sentimentrader.com/blog/braz…

Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence (2026-10-26) • Smart Money 0.57 | Neutral • Dumb Money 0.48 | Neutral Track the latest Smart & Dumb Money Confidence on SentimenTrader: sentimentrader.com/?utm_sour…

Energy stocks are joining oil in extreme optimism. $XLE sentiment jumped from 53.43 to 85.46 on Oct. 23, while $USO sentiment reached 93.11, up from 67.57 on Oct. 21. Both are now above 80 as oil prices continue to climb. sentimentrader.com/?utm_sour…

Shanghai rallied off its lows on Oct. 23, but the breadth picture was mixed. $SHCOMP gained 0.9%, and its advance/decline reading swung from -1,788 to +1,348. Yet the SHCOMP 4 Week Low % reading jumped from 37.7% to 73.5%, pointing to persistent weakness beneath the surface. sentimentrader.com/?utm_sour…

The offshore yuan hit 6.67 per dollar, its strongest level since June 2022. Three months after prior signals, the S&P 500 was higher 90% of the time. Read more: sentimentrader.com/blog/offs…

$PLTR is down 5.9% since Oct. 12, yet its Trend Score still sits at 10. What has changed is volatility. By Oct. 23, 20-day historical volatility had risen from 25.72 to 45.54, while sentiment stood near neutral at 53.10. Explore $PLTR's trend, sentiment, and volatility data: sentimentrader.com/light-dat…

Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence (2026-10-23) • Smart Money 0.53 | Neutral • Dumb Money 0.49 | Neutral Track the latest Smart & Dumb Money Confidence on SentimenTrader: sentimentrader.com/?utm_sour…

The same sentiment signal can mean opposite things depending on one thing: the trend it shows up in. An industrials versus staples flip just fired, and whether it’s bullish hinges entirely on context. Inside an uptrend the next few months lean positive. Pulled out of context, nearly half the past cases came from the 2000 and 2008 bear markets. Four reports this week. Weight of Evidence: Constructive, selective. U.S. Stocks • Staples • Gold Miners • Bitcoin Read the full Weekly Research Signals: mailchi.mp/sentimentrader/go…

Stocks sold off on Oct. 22. Bonds rallied, but gold fell. Sentiment showed an even sharper divide: $BND sentiment jumped to 95.54 while $GLD sentiment plunged to 6.53. The 89 point gap is wider than 99.98% of readings since 2008. sentimentrader.com/light-dat…

Everyone's asking if this is the top. One classic gauge of leverage says not yet. When NYSE margin debt sits above its 12-month average, stocks have historically been in a favorable regime. When it drops below, bear markets become far more likely. As of the end of September, margin debt was still running 11.9% above that average, even with this week's tech selloff. This week's TradingEdge Weekly video covers the margin debt backdrop, a consumer staples breadth thrust, a gold miner washout bounce, and a bitcoin trend signal turning bullish. The full SentimenTrader market view: youtu.be/gRmGaf2pKpo Read more: sentimentrader.com/blog/trad…

$SPX fell 1.21% on Oct. 22, but equal weight $RSP gained 0.73%. Same S&P 500 stocks. Very different result when the biggest names carry less weight. Since 2008, that's happened on just 3 of 601 days when $SPX fell at least 1%. sentimentrader.com/light-dat…

Smart Money / Dumb Money Confidence (2026-10-22) • Smart Money 0.5 | Neutral • Dumb Money 0.54 | Neutral Track the latest Smart & Dumb Money Confidence on SentimenTrader: sentimentrader.com/light-dat…