Steve Rayson (@steverayson) header
Steve Rayson (@steverayson) profile picture

Author 'The Fall of the Red Wall', ‘Badgeland' and ‘Collapse of the Conservatives’. Co-founder @buzzsumo @kineo. Still learning.

London
Joined September 2008
Photo by Steve Rayson (@steverayson)Photo by Steve Rayson (@steverayson)Photo by Steve Rayson (@steverayson)Photo by Steve Rayson (@steverayson)Photo by Steve Rayson (@steverayson)Photo by Steve Rayson (@steverayson)Photo by Steve Rayson (@steverayson)Photo by Steve Rayson (@steverayson)Photo by Steve Rayson (@steverayson)Photo by Steve Rayson (@steverayson)
My new book 'Collapse of the Conservatives: Volatile Voters, Broken Britain and a Punishment Election' is published today! You can get a copy at amzn.to/48fzWsp
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Steve Rayson retweeted
This is government gaslighting to a high degree. 1. It’s not a new announcement. The Norfolk East and West offshore wind projects were announced earlier this year as part of the AR7 round of contracts. 2. No way does it bring down prices. Those behind it, energy giant RWE + global investors KKR, were guaranteed an above-market strike price of £91.20/MWh based on 2024 prices — indexed linked for 20 years. That guarantee is already worth £97/MWh in 2026. This is v expensive energy. 3. What is new is that the costs of developing offshore wind have soared. So the government has now had to chip in £1 billion of the £12 billion investment needed from the National Wealth [Destruction] Fund. So more state subsidy on top of the massive subsidies for two foreign companies implicit in the price guarantees embedded in AR7. 4. Far from cheaper electricity this embeds high-cost electricity in the system for 20 years. 5. So much for the Chancellor’s Budget pledge to ‘only build new projects when they lower prices’. This does the opposite — and at enormous expense to the taxpayer and electricity user. Gaslighting indeed.
The government’s £12 billion investment in wind farms will help "bring down people’s energy bills", says climate transition minister, Katie White. But they have not announced any additional funding to upgrade the grid.
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🚨Burnham Promised Public Control of Water — Private US Hedge Funds Are About to Take Formal Control of Thames US hedge fund creditors are close to a final deal that would give them formal control of Thames Water, the supplier for 16 million people. The package reportedly trades cash and equity for softer pollution rules and waived penalties — a payoff for the same lenders who have overseen mounting debt and sewage spills. A near-identical proposal was rejected in June by the then Environment Secretary as inadequate. One hundred and twelve MPs have demanded special administration instead. Burnham vowed to put life’s essentials under public control and reverse the privatisation failures that left rivers fouled and bills soaring. Letting private US hedge funds seize formal control now would turn that promise into a spectacular, unforgivable betrayal.
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“More than 170 previous offences, including 80 offences against vulnerable people.” With that record, this scumbag should never have been free to commit such an appalling crime. Let him rot.
🚨NEW: The family of an elderly man has released footage where a burglar tricked his way into the victim's home in January by posing as a fire alarm engineer The attacker had more than 170 previous offences, including 80 offences against vulnerable people
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YouGov / Sky / Times voting intention LAB 27%(+1), CON 21%(-3), RefUK 20%(-1), LDEM 12%(+1), GRN 10%(nc) 8/9 Nov
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Lab 31% (+1) Reform 24% (-1) Con 20% (-3) Lib Dem 9% (+2) Green 8% (=) New Fieldwork: 6th - 9th November 2026 New Sample: 2,023 GB Adults
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Steve Rayson retweeted
On Thursday I wrote about the 2014 injunction Russell Brand obtained against a woman who accused him of assault. I've now obtained the final order. It's breathtaking. She had no lawyer. No trial. Yet she was silenced for life - even barred from speaking to the police. 🧵:
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"Just before it was nationalised 94 per cent of its [c2c's] trains arrived within five minutes of the scheduled time. The latest available data from this August showed this had dropped to just under 71.5 per cent of trains."
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Steve Rayson retweeted
What a depressing Labour u-turn on the extension of ILR for Boriswave care workers. It’s not just the huge cost heading our way, it’s the way that care workers are singled out for the sentimental treatment we usually reserve for NHS nurses. For our own benefit as a country we need the average carer to be better paid, better trained, and higher status (I recently wrote a book partly about this The Care Dilemma). But we don’t have to pretend they are all angels: there are some who are v good, most who are average and too many who are useless, as in any walk of life. The immigrant carers are coming here for a better life from poorer often failing societies not because they love looking after British people. In my own last hospital stay most the care assistants were Boriswave women, mostly from Africa - some decent some indifferent - but ALL spoke quite poor and v heavily accented English that was sometimes hard to understand and unless I spoke slowly and deliberately they struggled to understand me. This is obviously a sensitive issue that many people experience but don’t feel able to talk about (though it must be reflected in those low satisfaction surveys), partly because a carer has helped you when you are vulnerable and there is a kind of reflex gratitude even if the care has actually been a bit sloppy or incompetent (and you also feel you’re getting it free so shouldn’t moan, even if you’re paying more and more in tax). Yet it’s crazy that we are spending billions subsidising this when we could be using the money to incentivise British ppl, who speak the language fluently and understand the culture, to do these jobs.
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Steve Rayson retweeted
Here's one of the things @beeboileau and I found in our @TheIFS overnight analysis of the Budget. Healey has now allocated much of the spending reserve for the next few years, including to fund the Defence Investment Plan. This is categorically not what the reserves are for.
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Indeed. This is what poorly thought through regulation does. This set of changes has made us poorer. This will particularly hit young people. Governments doing real damage.
Brutal judgement from the OBR on the supply side frictions that have made UK house-building unviable across many sites.
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📈 @OBR_UK now forecasts 10.8 million people will pay the higher or additional rate of income tax by March 2031. This is 6 million more than if the higher rate threshold had risen with CPI inflation since 2022, and 250,000 more than the OBR forecast in March.
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Steve Rayson retweeted
This puts into perspective. You can see average income growth over a 60 year period. This decade by the far the worst. Even worse than in 2010s which, at the time, were the worst in post war history.
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Hidden away in the OBR report is this concerning graph showing housing completions - looks like even their reduced forecast is optimistic. Plus rents and mortgages are going to get more expensive due to interest rates + the extra property tax.
New post: The budget wasn't very interesting, but the OBR forecast was. Full of data + clues on the difficult decisions to come next year. I look at seven key things we learnt - from the cuts departments are facing to the rising costs of housing. samf.substack.com/p/the-iceb…
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BREAKING The OBR suggests that successive increases in the national living wage and the employment rights act will hit jobs It says the employment right act will have a ‘negative economic impact’ and hit businesses through ‘increased uncertainty, lost flexibility and higher Labour related costs’ It says that these will ‘more than offset’ any potential increase in productivity
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Steve Rayson retweeted
📽️Here's our mega screen on this year's mega Budget. LOADS of charts on what was, depending on how you look at it, either the biggest or the smallest Budget in modern history. But arguably the biggest story of all is what it says about the shocking state of UK living standards👇
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BREAKING The OBR says the tax raid on landlords - increasing property income tax rates by another 2% - will: 1) Make it less likely that people become landlords, ‘reducing long term rental supply’ and leading to a ‘steady long-term rise in rents’ 2) See landlords simply pass on costs to tenants, increasing rents
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Steve Rayson retweeted
Govt wrong to keep the Plan 2 student loan threshold frozen at £29,385 for three years. This means more graduates on low incomes paying a 37% marginal tax rate and no effort to repair a breach of trust.
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OBR chart on real household disposable income growth over the decades. Just wow
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Steve Rayson retweeted
Here's the real story of this Budget, the can being kicked down the road. This Labour government is apparently planning spending cuts on most areas of public service spending of 2.6% per year between 2028-29 and 2031-32. Pull the other one. It's got bells on.
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The tax burden is forecast to rise to yet another record level as fiscal drag continues to drive up revenues They are now forecast to rise from 41.4 per cent of GDP this year to 42.9 per cent in 2031/32
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