Theo Argitis

Perhaps no chart illustrates more Mark Carney's balance-sheet style, leverage-to-invest economic program. Essentially, the federal government is borrowing heavily to invest in (and own) productive assets, at a level we haven't seen in a long time. It's ambitious at a time when we need ambition. But also risky. So it's absolutely vital we make the right investments here.

Carney is asking Canadians to support an ambitious investment agenda, and they deserve a clear picture of what it costs, what risks it entails, and what they can expect in return. The budget is an important checkpoint. So how should we assess it all and think about the coming fiscal plan? First, there is near-unanimous agreement in the business community on the need to increase investment in the economy to boost Canada’s lagging productivity and strengthen the country’s economic sovereignty and resilience. And there is growing acceptance that this needs to include more active use of government balance sheets. Many other countries are using fiscal levers aggressively to gain economic advantage. We are in an era of economic statecraft, whether we like it or not. Carney has not only embraced this idea but is clearly poised to test the limits—both political and market—of how much to borrow to transform the economy. Second, Canada enjoys a substantial borrowing-cost advantage over other countries. In fact, the gap between Canadian and U.S. government bond yields has been hovering near record levels, with Canada paying a lot less. Many factors influence global bond yields and investors’ willingness to buy our debt. Confidence in Carney’s agenda is clearly one factor. At the very least, markets have continued to finance the government on favourable terms as it pursues its plan, in part because investors know that growth is the foundation of sustainable fiscal policy. France should serve as a cautionary tale for policymakers about the perils of persistently high deficits that are not tethered to a growth agenda. Third, the borrowing numbers and projected debt charges reveal considerable risk associated with Carney’s agenda. Carney is placing big wagers, and the stakes for us all are high. Getting it wrong, which means failing to secure the long-term economic payoff from all this borrowing, could undermine our prosperity for years, if not decades. thehub.ca/2026/11/04/canadas…

The @BizCouncilofCan surveyed members to gauge how business leaders view the current "moment" of uncertainty and transformation. One clear finding: There is near unanimity on the importance of prioritizing sovereignty and economic resilience. To read full report: thebusinesscouncil.ca/wp-con… For some more insights into the findings, read here: businesscouncilofcanada.subs…

BREAKING NEWS: Canada sheds 68k jobs in September, a second straight large monthly decline. Employment now down 110k since July, reversing much of the gains we saw over the summer. Employment is now back below Dec. 2025 levels. Jobless rate picks up one tick to 6.5% in September. Overall a rough jobs report. www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail…

This is a gamer changer for Canada's investment landscape. Prime Minister Mark Carney is expanding the scope of a major investment tax write-off, adding oil and gas pipelines, mining property and more to the list of assets eligible for accelerated deductions in Canada. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

BREAKING NEWS: Canada's economy grew by an annualized 3.3% in second quarter, fastest pace since 2023. StatsCan also revises Q1 numbers to 0.3% growth. Remember concerns about technical recession. Yeah, there wasn't one. The rebound in growth was driven by exports and investment - which means business led the charge.

StatsCan released latest foreign direct investment data this morning (for Q2) that reinforces two trends in the numbers in the Trump 2.0 era: lower Canadian FDI abroad vs historical average (particularly into US). And higher FDI into Canada vs historical average. (The chart below shows four-quarter sums for direct investment.) What exactly is happening is unclear. FDI into Canada peaked in 2024 even though it continues to remain above the historical average. The trend of falling Canadian investment abroad also predates Trump 2.0. www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail…

For all those citing declines in the Canadian dollar as evidence of the gravity of the trade war on Canada. In fact, the Canadian dollar has hardly budged over the past five days. In fact, we've seen a slight gain against USD. It's the US dollar that has taken a hit against all other major currencies over the past week.

BREAKING NEWS: Canada adds 75k jobs in July, well ahead of expectations. Unemployment rate falls to 6.4% from 6.5%. Since April, total employment is up by 181k. Third straight month of good employment numbers out of Canada, more than fully reversing a weak start to the year. www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail…

BREAKING NEWS: Canada adds 18.2k net new jobs in June, according to StatsCan. Unemployment rate dips to 6.5% vs 6.6%. Year to date, employment down about 6k, which reflects more a shrinking labour force (down by 90k) rather than falling demand. www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail…

BREAKING NEWS: StatsCan reports Canada employment surges by 88,000 in May, a big rebound from a tough start to the year. The gains were driven by a monster 154k increase in full-time employment. The unemployment rate falls to 6.6% from 6.9%. www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail…

Given there is a lot of debate out there on whether Canada is in a recession or not. I thought I'd weigh in with a couple of thoughts, and a bit of history. Two straight quarterly contractions is usually a good INDICATOR of a true recession, but not always. Canada’s economy wasn’t in a recession in 1970, even though output contracted in the first two quarters of that year. Nor did we have a recession in 2015, even though Canada experienced back-to-back quarters of falling GDP that year. There have also been times, such as 1974 and 1960, when the country fell into recession without two quarterly declines in output. Plus, the declines in GDP this year are so small that revisions could easily cast the story in an upward direction. It’s just too early to conclude a recession occurred over the past six months, and the final tally may not be known for another year or two. I'm sure the C.D. Howe Business Cycle Council, the authority of these things in Canada, will weigh in at one point. My opinion. Given that household spending has been rising, even with a massive slowdown in population growth, the economy does not look recessionary to me. I don't think there's been any instance of a recession with rising household spending.

BREAKING NEWS: Canada's economy is still struggling to find growth. StatsCan data out today shows zero growth in first quarter (more precisely, the numbers show a minuscule contraction). The weak reading in first quarter of 2026 comes after a small contraction in fourth quarter of 2025. Consumption remains solid, but business investment continues to shrink. Non-residential business investment has fallen for three of the last four quarters and is now at the lowest in two years. Some will be quick to characterize this as a "technical recession". But we need to be careful here since data will get revised. Best way to describe this is an economy that has been essentially stagnant over past six months, in large part because of weak business investment.

After slowing down sharply in 2025, we see a rebound of Canadian foreign direct investment into the U.S. in the first quarter of this year, according to the latest data released today by Statistics Canada. Link to the numbers is here: www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail… Canadian FDI into the U.S. jumped to $24 billion in Q1, which is about the total for all of 2025 and the most in any one quarter since Q1 2024. Last year's investment numbers into the U.S. were the lowest in more than a decade. While some will worry this is a comeback of the "capital exodus" story we hear so much about, I'm actually relieved to see Canadian businesses investing, any where. This is a sign of health, with the added benefit that it shows confidence in the outlook for the Canada-U.S. economic relationship. GDP numbers out tomorrow will show us whether Canadian businesses are ramping up investments at home as well. U.S. FDI into Canada was $16 billion in Q1, which is slightly down from Q4 2025, but remains well above historical averages. So FDI flows back and forth between our two countries is healthy. This is a good thing.

For what it's worth, the NY Times (with Basu and LeBrun writing) has much much much better coverage of the Canadiens' run than any Canadian paper not based in Quebec. Just an observation.