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Tim Bayer

@timbayer93

Author of the Football Power Index. Sports Analytics. Data Visualisation. Python. Tableau Viz of the Day Author. Also made an https://teapawt.net/t.co/QWIvf9ZuWn

timbayer93.github.io/project-premier-league-power-index
Joined December 2012
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Photo by Tim Bayer (@timbayer93)Photo by Tim Bayer (@timbayer93)Photo by Tim Bayer (@timbayer93)Photo by Tim Bayer (@timbayer93)Photo by Tim Bayer (@timbayer93)Photo by Tim Bayer (@timbayer93)Photo by Tim Bayer (@timbayer93)Photo by Tim Bayer (@timbayer93)Photo by Tim Bayer (@timbayer93)Photo by Tim Bayer (@timbayer93)
Here's one of my recent projects: The #FPL form & fixture guide. Lots of credit to @petermckeever who used this technique. I wanted to a) learn how it works (so cool) b) use some of my data - FPL stuff Form = xG + xA Fixtures = 538's SPI All fixtures: tabsoft.co/2vR3M8l
Image from Tim Bayer (@timbayer93)
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Here are my #FPL GW9 Pre-Match Forecasts!
Image from Tim Bayer (@timbayer93)
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Here are my projected DefCons for #FPL GW9. Crystal Palace, Forest, Leeds vs. Spurs, Brentford & Bournemouth, respectively, are usually favourable DC match-ups. Picks; Pinnock tops the charts. Ever present Muharemovic in 2nd. Tark, Hill / Silva also good. Gabriel in top 20.
Image from Tim Bayer (@timbayer93)
Image from Tim Bayer (@timbayer93)
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As ever, here is how it works:
Image from Tim Bayer (@timbayer93)
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Pre-Match Forecasts for #FPL GW8!
Image from Tim Bayer (@timbayer93)
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Here are my #FPL DefCon projections for GW8. Egan, Hill and Thomas the top three this week. Silva probably the more interesting since he's 0.5 cheaper. Vuskuvic and Muharemovic also good.
Image from Tim Bayer (@timbayer93)
Image from Tim Bayer (@timbayer93)
Image from Tim Bayer (@timbayer93)
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How is non-penalty xG created and conceded trending for current Premier League teams? ARS still top of the pile with an elite defense. BOU and BHA best of the rest. MUN defensive concerns and underperforming offense. SUN defense kept them up but not looking as good. CRY oof.
Image from Tim Bayer (@timbayer93)
Image from Tim Bayer (@timbayer93)
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I've been of the opinion that for a number of years that one of MUN's biggest problem is the massive media attention they get and anything is immediately under the microscope. _No_ manager can succeed in such an environment.
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E.g., Chelsea had a poor last season. Numbers not great, some over-performance so far. Isn't too far from MUN and Carrick but the season has to play out under Alonso first and results are more important than underlying data
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Updated fixture tickers for #FPL GW8 - 13. Chelsea have a favourable run (still). NEW technically still good but hard to say if they can capitalise on these games - "harder" fixtures might suit them better as a team. Defense: Surprise, surprise, just play your Arsenal picks.
Image from Tim Bayer (@timbayer93)
Image from Tim Bayer (@timbayer93)
Image from Tim Bayer (@timbayer93)
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Updated Team Ratings from this weekend's results. Top three currently are Arsenal, City, and Brighton. Liverpool leading the rest with a small gap to the top. Crystal Palace drop a few places.
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Here are my #FPL Gameweek 7 Pre-Match Forecasts!
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Here are my DefCon Projections for #FPL GW7. 1. Thomas 2. Muharemovic 3. Hill Leeds look good as a team for DefCons with a potential heigh ceiling (+CS or attacking return) as MUN don't come with the best of form. Stach is just outside this list with a 35% probability
Image from Tim Bayer (@timbayer93)
Image from Tim Bayer (@timbayer93)
Image from Tim Bayer (@timbayer93)
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Here are your latest #FPL DefCon Picks after GW6. Mainoo keeps picking up the DC (Casemiro was very good last year but did offer a pretty good goal threat). Reminder: DC / Start = this season only. DC 20th-ile = last 38 GWs (where available) Hit Rate = when playing 60+ mins
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Here are the latest #FPL DefCon trends for each Premier League team. EVE are now the top team for DefCons (mean 2.7 hits / 86 DefCons per match). BOU drop to second. Facing BRE or TOT tend to generate the most DefCons. NEW, BOU, EVE, LIV also good opponents for DefCons.
Image from Tim Bayer (@timbayer93)
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Updated Premier League Team Ratings following Gameweek 6.
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Here are my #FPL Gameweek 6 Pre-Match Forecasts.
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Here are my #FPL GW6 Projected Player DefCons. Hill, Murillo & Muharemovic the top 3. Gabriel usually not this high in the projections but has a 42% chance to hit DC this week - could have a big game if ARS keep the CS vs LEE too.
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Here are your #FPL GW6 DefCon Matchups. Bournemouth, Leeds, Palace with > 2 expected hits. Palace with the highest CS chance out of those three.
Image from Tim Bayer (@timbayer93)
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Here is how this model works ⬇️
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#FPL GW6-11: Overall Fixture Difficulty (block of five games until the next int. break post GW10). Tricky period for FPL managers; FUL, COV, NEW, HUL on paper with the most fav run. I'd always treat int. breaks as a bit of a reset so if you can field 11, I'd always hold the FT.
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