Often typos. Observing the Western plebicide. Left in 2016. and 2018. and 2021. Back to repeat myself.
Clownada
Joined January 2025
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2026 – On The Radar 🧐
Issues worth paying attention to through 2026. 🧵
(TLDR, expect more of the same. Only Louder.)
MARKETS
1. Equities: Record valuations held up with debt, leveraged ETFs, weak euphoria, weak economy, and a concentration of businesses. CEO grandeur, and questionable accounting.
AI especially.
1997 or 1999 vibes? Cisco 99. Nortel (and China). "Irrational exuberance".
Many signs of a bubble. Expect more MAGS10 Darlings to fall from grace in 2026.
Lenders (banks, secondary, private markets) are concerning too.
2. Debt Markets (Bonds)
Ugly. Low yields, and rising.
Lenders: Fraud risk among credit applications; lack of provisions recorded (AFDA); cashflow risks and offside covenants among borrowers.
ZIRP era has yet to unwind, and losses not yet realized.
If a debt crisis occurs, it can occur from any number of toxic sectors, debt classes, or enterprises.
Junk bonds, MBS, CDOs, CLOs, Helocs, auto loans, even sovereign debt, and any other instrument that can be securitized, repackaged, or held as collateral can become a risk asset - especially under water.
Think TriColor. Think Silicon Valley Bank.
Watch bond yields this year.
3. Commodities: Mining
Any interruptions from the above will have proportionate impacts on commodity prices. Opportunities.
Otherwise, anticipate demand and deficits to drive many commodities higher.
Specific items:
Gold: Currency debasement & inflation, interest rates, central bank reserve purchases, monetary policy changes, and other Fed or Treasury actions as an indication of dollar and gold dynamics. Flight to safety (broad market).
Silver: Paper squeeze, Shanghai vs. COMEX / LBMA prices, banking contagion risks (if any), paper ratio, industrial demand (and risks), central bank reserves, strategic asset benefits, monetary uses, and flight to safety. Anticipating it is held lower in the West until institutional paper can exit the short and put positions. Either way, price gap with Asia will close.
Base: Gold leads silver, silver leads PMs, PMs lead Copper. Anticipating a Commodity Supercycle, this decade.
Uranium: the future of energy includes nuclear. New tech is making this possible. For now, that tech needs to decouple from AI tech. Still a proxy.
Oil: Does Iran go to war? Does Venezuela go to War? Does USA go to War? Does Russia & Europe go to war? Oil is deflationary, until the next price shock. But it also cannot run at a loss forever. Commodities cycle. Wait and see.
4. Crypto
Tide going out? Or another rest?
Most are garbage. Anticipate volatility, always. Blockchain has utility in theory, but none in practice. Reserve currency? Flight to safety? Store of value? Time will tell.
Public utility has yet to materialize. Until then, it's speculation.
Remember land grabs in the Metaverse?
5. Other Market Risks
- Japan yields and the Japanese Carry Trade
- Sovereign debt yields (market rates %)
- EU Pension and bank reforms, eg: Dutch pension reform. Signs of fragility
- Shocks: military, sanction, credit crisis
- Tightening on lending, if any
- Zombie corps. Lots of companies cannot afford their debt once rates move. People too.
I wiped my history and have been playing with AI for non-technical tasks the last week, and it keeps lying and gaslighting me.
Over 50% of responses have been inaccurate.
The common theme is that it manipulates my question, or just lies entirely.
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DHS has indicated they they are investigating 300,000 cases of voter fraud ...
Trojan horse letting all those people in
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Imagine being this obsessed with enriching the top 1%
We should absolutely seek to reach a population of 100 million people at a sustainable pace, because a larger Canada would give us a stronger internal market, the capacity to field a much larger military to protect our nation and contribute to alliances like NATO, and would help give Canadian values an even stronger position on the world stage.
Read more here: spencerfernando.substack.com…
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Ever since open borders and DEI...
These mistakes happen so often that it cannot be a mistake
They are padding the stats to scapegoat the white population ahead of replacement
It's only going to get worse
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The blind leading the blind.
He doesn't even know what market valuations mean, and he advertises himself as an investor
Canada is cooked
I don’t know who needs to hear this, but the Canadian stock market is outperforming the US stock market YTD 👍
Let’s go #Canada 🇨🇦 🙌
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Not parody
He loves garlic more than he hates Sharia caliphate
youtube.com/shorts/NWCAqtD01…
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with all the new data posted to gov of canada website for fiscal 2026,
i'll be updating interactive dashboards this month
a few need repairs (corrupted).
majority need updates.
if you want any specific dashboards ... i can build them
just ask
georgetaylor3978.github.io/T…
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Federal Expenses by Department and Pay Category
DASHBOARD
This one is good for looking at Department spend over time.
It's pretty basic. And ugly. better ones being prepared (30 dashboards total)
georgetaylor3978.github.io/c…
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Carney promised he would do more for veterans than any PM before him
Now that we only spend $6 billion/yr on immigrants, Carney can deliver on his promise by increasing veteran payments
by a whopping $8 million!
Wow - and enough left over to give $1.2 billion to his wife!
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