Michaël van de Poppe

Liquidity is stuck. Rates are higher. Most people read that as the end of the #crypto cycle. @RaoulGMI reads it completely differently: "This is not a cycle. This is a mid-cycle correction. And it's like an elongated version of what happened in 2020." His reasoning: the last rally never even got to one standard deviation overbought versus the trend, and we never had a real down cycle in liquidity. It just went flat for a while. Raoul is the founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor and @RealVision, and his new book The Everything Code is out now. Third time on the show, first time in person, recorded live in Singapore. In his view the adoption story is already obvious: stablecoins, tokenization, AI agents. What's missing is fuel: "So all you need is the kindling. You need to throw the gasoline on the fire and the gasoline always and every time is liquidity." Thanks to @OKX for being today's sponsor of the show. We cover: - Why liquidity is stuck, and why higher rates are not bearish this time - The deflationary nuclear bomb: what AI does to wages, advice and the value of money - How Raoul rebuilt his entire business with AI without writing a line of code - AI agents, liability, and why identity is the layer everyone overlooks - #Bitcoin oversold versus Nasdaq, and the case for a mid-cycle correction - Which Layer 1s win, and how to value a network with the "lights off" test - How Raoul invests himself: two trades this year Timestamps: 00:50 - Third Time, Live In Singapore 04:22 - Why Liquidity Is Stuck 05:49 - Why Higher Rates Are Not Bearish 11:09 - Escaping The Rat Race 18:42 - The Deflationary Nuclear Bomb 24:48 - Building Everything With AI 32:17 - AI Agents, Liability And Risk 42:46 - Is Crypto Breaking Out? 45:57 - A Mid-Cycle Correction 51:37 - What Everyone Overlooks: Identity 54:36 - Which Layer 1s Win 1:01:12 - How Raoul Invests

Which way do you think $ETH will break out vs. Bitcoin?

Question remains whether or not #Bitcoin is able to break this resistance. If it does, we'll be ready to continue running.

Pretty bullish consolidation on $QNT, if you'd ask me. After such a push upward, it's pretty normal to see a correction, as we've seen to the $170s area. I wouldn't be surprised to see an upward breakout. What is needed for that? - Holding higher lows from here. - Sweep the highs and grind to $219. - Break that resistance, and we're back running towards highs again.

I think that #DeFi is the most undervalued segment of the market. So many hacks have happened over the past few weeks that we need an optimized financial infrastructure. That's blockchain, and then, secondly, that's DeFi. On top of that, if Yields are going to drop, institutional interest in products built within DeFi will only increase. Look, I'm trying to understand which narrative is next and allocate accordingly, but I think this could easily be the next big play.

One could argue we're seeing a lower-timeframe bullish flip for $TAO, suggesting we're likely to trend higher. Overall, a higher-timeframe level has been swept here for liquidity, and I wouldn't be surprised if we turn back upwards in the coming weeks.

Literally nothing has happened for #Bitcoin over the weekend. That was quite to be expected, unfortunately. Technically, Bitcoin has swept the lows, meaning we're likely to break higher. However, if it wants to break upwards, we'd need to break through $76,000 in order to get that momentum going. If that happens early in the coming week, things can move fast as there are no levels in between.

This is a super interesting spot for $LINK. It's been falling for nearly 1.5 months, since it peaked in September. Expectations are that we'll continue to fall, but I honestly think that we'll be bottoming out within these weeks or have bottomed already. That's where you'd want to accumulate assets like $LINK.

Essentially, this is the chop phase of #Bitcoin. Nothing special, just the consequence of buyers and sellers stepping in at each side of the range. This range is designed for you to lose your Bitcoin and your assets. Just don't. Accumulate as much as you can, as the escape velocity of Bitcoin will come afterwards, just like it did in 2024.

I would classify $TAO as an interesting asset here. That's because we've swept many recent lows and bounced back immediately. Sure, you could argue we're still in a strong downtrend, but once it turns around, the trend can flip fast, and it's hard to get into a position. That's why you'd want to build the position right here, right now, since these sweeps are often the final phase of the correction.

#Bitcoin is already in a bull market compared to gold. Ultimately, it all depends on which metric you value Bitcoin against. I stand behind the thesis that you'll need to sell Bitcoin at certain points in time, as it's simply overvalued vs. other assets. Right now, I'd much rather be allocated to #Crypto and #Bitcoin, as it's clear we're already at the start of a bull cycle, like we saw in 2023/2024. There's still much more upside to come, and we haven't even hit escape velocity.

I'm making a big shift in my #Altcoin portfolio as I allocate to two new protocols that I think will outperform. Want to stay updated? Join now: teapawt.net/CryptoMichNL/creator-s…

I've seen a lot of people flip over from #Crypto to AI. - Investors - Content Creators - Companies The funny part is that AI will eventually come to #Crypto, and it will all converge. AI needs payment rails built on top of blockchain, and you'll need to use tokens to interact with those AI Models. However, the ones that are flipping over are usually not the ones that have been providing value in the first place. Interesting scenes.

The #Altcoin market capitalization reminds me a bit of the start of the previous bull run. Right now is an optimal level to bounce. If it does that, we're in for a tear on the coming months and a lot of upside. All lows have been swept, so other than just holding here, we can also copy/paste the price action that we've seen in 2023 (Second picture). The difference with that example is that it took out the low and crashed a lot deeper on the same day. In nowadays markets, the low has been taken, so I would imagine that we're going to see a reversal from here much rather than downwards. If it turns out to be going downwards even more from here, we might print new lows and that completely invalidates the bullish divergence thesis.

$ETH vs. $BTC is in an interesting phase. It's stuck in a range, and a breakout up or down will define the market's momentum. I would assume we're getting the upward breakout, as I expect the market to outperform, but we'll need to wait for it. In between, there's no point in trading.

It's sad to see the industry focused solely on money-grabbing grifters. I joined the #Crypto space in 2017. Why? Because I genuinely had an interest in the technology and the vision behind #Bitcoin and #Crypto. I wanted to learn more; I wanted to understand it better. The industry remains beautiful. Fascinating technology is being built, but I hope that, one day, the industry goes back to its core and that we're here to simply embrace technology and the opportunities within it.