Subscribe to my DeFi blog to get ahead of the curve 👉 https://teapawt.net/t.co/7O0WAdXUnT Co-founder of @PinkBrains_io DeFi Creator Studio
Joined February 2017
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When checking buybacks don't forget about token inflation.
YTD:
- $PUMP: buybacks $407M. Circulating supply still grew 29.5%
- $AAVE: buybacks $11.2M vs $31.7M in net supply added
- solana:JUPyiwrYJFskUPiHa7hkeR8VUtAeFoSYbKedZNsDvCN: $9.9M in buybacks vs $32.9M in net supply added
$HYPE looks best: $791M in buybacks but just 0.43% in increased supply
Added $MORPHO because YTD price is up by 81% but it would've pumped by 2.3x if not for token inflation
p.s. fun to play with data analytics APIs
Crypto still looks attractive for asymmetric trades.
No need to hold 100% of your net worth in crypto like BTC or ETH.
You can be fine with S&P500 or QQQ.
Instead, put 10% or even 5% of your portfolio to asymmetric trades that crypto offers.
For me, it's something like $TRUE for challenging Polymarket and $BP for next big CEX+tokenization trade.
But there are and will be many more.
We had $ZEC and $HYPE that were relatively 'easy' trades if you were following CT.
Chasing those trades is fun and I will stay in crypto for it.
But my time of 100% allocating to crypto is behind.
Somehow relevant to my post:
Find teams, ideas, and products you believe in. FIND THEM EARLY and be patient to be rewarded
teapawt.net/QwQiao/status/21205333…
it dawned on me why everyone on this site is so obsessed with short term trading.
the vast majority of ppl have only been here since 2021 let alone 2017. they’ve never experienced the joy of developing long term theses and be proven right after 100-10000x. on top of that with the sheer amount of garbage launched after 2021 statistically most things ppl hold go to zero.
but having hit one 10000x, one 1000x, and a handful of 10-100xs, i can tell u from experience long term investing is financially, intellectually, *and* emotionally far more rewarding than short term games. not only will u make more money, u will learn more about the world and feel great watching a project succeed after years of ups and downs.
1% of short term traders will ever make it (and im increasingly convinced u r either born a great trader or u aren’t.) yet everyone thinks they are the chosen one. and even then, observe that the greatest of all time have made almost all their money from long term stuff (like buffett). these are the right role model for the 99%.
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Feels like we're out of short-term narratives why crypto can pump.
Sure, there's institutional adoption but they get most of upside without buying our coins.
Thus betting on that adoption via tokens is meh: upside seems to be in equity or private markets.
Crypto was supposed to solve this!
Worse, seems that many crypto tokens are here to pay for institutional partnerships instead of accruing value to them. We're exit liquidity here.
HYPE got the NYSE news and now the trade played out. Currently waiting for all licenses and see how much it affects buybacks.
AVAX partnership will 'provide core ledger technology for NYSE' but what does that mean for the token?
Cosmos ATOM provided core ledger technology for shitloads of companies and they are basically dead.
BTC would pump if there was money printing in sight but that won't happen until AI bubble collapses:
and that would first rekt crypto as well.
(I would've thought differently but AI crashing and rebounded while crypto crashed without rebound is making us all bearish).
Meanwhile trenches are rekt beyond believe. Pump, FOMO & grifters are running out of dumb money and backlash on X is getting louder.
Mid to long term it's clear that crypto is here to stay.
But we'll be tested by 1) democrats getting their vandetta on crypto and 2) interest rates increasing that can't be good for risk assets.
The most bullish point about this post is that it sounds so bearish, and usually when one wants to sell is the best time to buy?
Tokenizing illiquid assets will be another crypto's 0 to 1 innovation:
Real estate, pre-IPO companies, private credit, influencer royalties, luxury watches/cars 등등
Crypto will become where price discovery for all assets happens.
Even for westerners, tokenize Chinese, Korean stocks that are harder to access.
why would westerners buy tokenised stocks?
0 reasons just as it doesn’t make sense to sell USDT to americans
but the rest of the world doesn’t have that kind of access. thats what tokenised stocks on solana via @sunrise is about
MEGA pivots from cursed L2 to a hyped AI category.
$MEGA could do a 10x from here at current $59m MC to catch up with other "AI trades"*:
By MC / FDV:
- $NEAR: $4.63b / $4.63b
- $TAO: $2.53b / $4.53b
- Pearl: $586m / $3.29b
- $VVV: $943m / $1.55b
- $GRASS: $342m / $473m
- solana:BZLbGTNCSFfoth2GYDtwr7e4imWzpR5jqcUuGEwr646K: $49m / $92m
- $ORBIO: $25m / $25m (stake to earn inference credits)
The problem is $MEGA's FDV :(
Only 10% of MEGA circulate and FDV is still at $513M.
But IF MEGA TEAM SHIPS, the token can moon. But we have time to see if the team delivers.
* I know I can't compare those tokens as they sell different AI products but for degens chasing AI narrative these tokens might come to mind.
Alright, chat, time to address sensitive questions before y’all start guessing
1⃣Wait , are you guys an AI company now?
No. MEGA is a crypto-native company, and proudly so. Inference is the market we are entering, but the way we win it is through crypto technology and ideology.
There’s an artificial wall in crypto people’s minds about AI. It seems that if you are solving AI’s problem, you are betraying crypto. We reject that artificial boundary.
Inference is going to be the largest market in the world, and we believe crypto’s core tools are the best answer to AI’s biggest ones: fairness and access.
2⃣Okay, fine, explain to me why a crypto infra company is capable of solving AI Inference
Building MegaETH taught us something bigger than blockchains: across the largest markets, there are prevailing assumptions that lead end users to pay more than they should. Blockspace was one of those markets.
We are system researchers/engineers from Stanford Platform Lab, MIT CSAIL, and Harvard SEAS. We enjoy pushing markets toward their end state, and did it once with blockspace by breaking the norm and running a powerful centralized sequencer. Today, no one, literally no one, mentions decentralized sequencers anymore.
We were able to come in, measure where the waste was, find that the limit was a design choice, and engineer past it (very much against the “consensus”).
Over the summer, when we shipped Mega, the chain, we lifted our eyes and looked for the next ambitious problem set worth solving. We discovered, delightfully, that blockchain and cryptography can be applied to solve inefficiency in the rapidly growing inference market
We realized that staying a chain-only company felt wrong and would have meant ignoring the biggest opportunity in front of us.
Therefore, we decided to expand our mission and restructure to match it.
3⃣ Final question, what’s launching in December?
We are launching a globally competitive inference market to the public in Dec 2026.
Trying to buy tokens on Elysium L4 makes it clear why we need FOMO and pump style friendly UX apps:
Even after years in crypto it's so annoying! Add RPC, then add balances (coz Rabby doesn't support Elysium yet).
Then you check on which DEX to buy, like Aero.
But then the hot new tokens aren't available in the drop down list!
So you go to blockchain screeners, analytic websites to look for token contract address.
Then you want to swap from USDC to SHITCOIN.
And then shit, you forget you need HYPE for gas.
It just never ends.
In general, EVM trading experience hasn't improved in years with gas tokens and approvals.
Seriously, was tempted to just use FOMO but their fees are absurd.
And don't want to support their KOL scam campaigns.
So we need FOMO or PUMP but without their extraction KOL scams shills stuff.
Who is building this?
Gotta give Avalanche credit for BD.
- Ethena Pay is built on Avalanche. Card cashback is paid in AVAX, and Earn+ uses Aave V4 there too.
- California DMV digitized 42M car titles on its own Avalanche chain. Somehow this stick to my memory well.
Now this NYSE tokenized securities platform announcement.
Nice to see $AVAX pumping too because if news like this wouldn't pump the price, we would be cooked.
For decades, financial markets have operated on infrastructure designed around fixed trading hours and delayed settlement. There is no longer a technical reason for these constraints to exist.
When we designed Avalanche, we understood that bringing global financial markets onchain would have strong requirements. Institutions need networks they can configure to their own requirements, with the ability to achieve near-instant finality without giving up control over how those networks operate.
Now, Avalanche technology is set to power the core clearing ledger for an upcoming NYSE-affiliated tokenized securities platform.
It’s incredibly gratifying to see the ideas we spent years researching and engineering find their way into the infrastructure of global finance.
Current AI market sentiment reminds me of crypto post 2018/2022 blow ups:
Degens on leverage totally wiped out but those sitting in spot are HOPING for a rally.
Hoping but not actually buying more themselves.
They're maxed out. Fully deployed.
Check comments on Reddit or X. Leveraged degens are putting their last cash into the market...
... but it's not enough to offset the late sellers who just want to 'save what they still have left'
Sentiment is mixed between "AI trade is done" with others "It's just a dip".
For a true bubble, there can't be 50/50. We need max mania for that.
Looking at indexes, the market looks not much down, but individual altcoins (I mean AI stocks) are down bad:
$CRWV: -75.2%
$ORCL: -66.4%
$ARM: -61.4%
$INTC: -60.5%
$NBIS: -56.8%
$MU: -45.0%
$AVGO: -40.7%
$AMD: -31.8%
$TSLA: -28.2%
$PLTR: -24.7%
$NVDA: -23.3%
If crypto scenario plays out, first degen stocks go down, and then the majors start to drop. They were holding quite ok until recently.
Then we have institutional funds that one by one go belly up:
We all know about Situational Awareness but more bodies are surfacing - $17B Walleye Capital hedge fund just returned capital.
It takes time for true damage to surface.
And like in crypto, the bad news keep hitting one after another.
Today we have NVDA but tomorrow there'll be something else.
Because there's always something else when degens start to really look into it while before they would close their eyes and ignore bad news.
Like NVDA CEO news being shared a year ago.
Worse, is that good news will stop having the bullish affect while bad news get blown out of proportions.
You can't fight the wind of change.
Anyway, it's just my crypto experience since 2018 giving these vibes.
I could be wrong but recently I'm reading books on 1840s railway mania and Andrew's Ross 1929.
No matter the 'narrative du jour' the human psychology stays the same
I was investing in 2000 (43 yo managing a $200m venture fund). I was investing in 2008 (51 yo managing a private hedge fund). I was investing in 2020 (63 yo managing a mining stock fund). Each represented the bursting of a bubble. Thursday, November 5, 2026 was deja vu for me. I have seen this movie three times.
Party is over. Consequences of ZIRP, and free money driven "Everything Bubble" are coming home. Persistent inflation is the pin. Stock bulls better rethink their buy the dip strategy IMO. It's a long way down.
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