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A new episode of Hivemind is out now!
This week the team discusses whether AI is a debt bubble, what quantum risk means for bitcoin, what’s next for the Hyperliquid ecosystem and more.
Timestamps
00:00 Intro
00:44 Has Crypto Bottomed?
03:05 BTC’s Morning Seller Is Gone
04:32 Token Unlocks Into Year End
07:14 Do the Midterms Matter?
09:23 Is AI a Debt Bubble?
10:40 The Trillion AI Capex Math
15:53 Anthropic’s Revenue Is Exploding
19:10 The Reflexive AI Demand Risk
25:00 Why This Isn’t 2000
33:51 Crypto’s Goldilocks Case
36:01 Who Gets Satoshi’s Coins?
37:59 Quantum Fear Lifts ZEC and Pearl
41:49 Has Quantum Changed Your BTC Bet?
48:13 Two Big Themes for Next Year
50:12 Papertrade’s Token Problem
59:11 Kinetiq and the HyperEVM Bet
1:09:31 Why Hyperliquid Users Stay Loyal
1:12:30 PUMP vs FOMO
1:16:29 The Rise of Anti-Social Trading
Delphi Digital retweeted
Why can’t Wall Street exchanges just build their own Hyperliquid?
@RyanWatkins_: “They would need to re-architect their entire exchange stack because it’s built on the assumption that you needed to segment out all these different layers like brokerage and clearing and settlement and custody.
And here we kind of built these exchanges that assume this is all in one single integrated stack.
And you need that because how else are you going to be able to hold the margin on the exchange and liquidate it at a fraction of a second when you need to liquidate a position?
If this guy was that good, he would not be trying to do this at CME. He’d be at Jeff.”
trade[XYZ] and ICE, owner of the New York Stock Exchange, are joining forces to bring 24/7 perpetual futures on Hyperliquid to the United States.
In just over a year, our markets on Hyperliquid have surpassed $650 billion in volume. They provide continuous price discovery for stocks, indices, and commodities, and have become trusted reference points for retail and institutions alike when traditional markets are closed. Much of the world trades them. Until now, Americans could only watch.
We intend to change that. Subject to CFTC approval, trade[XYZ] and ICE plan to establish a new, dedicated U.S. market, with novel exchange and clearing infrastructure built on Hyperliquid. Planned contracts span equities, indices, commodities, FX, and crypto, with access through participating brokers and platforms. We’ll share more on products, eligibility, and timing as approvals progress.
ICE brings more than 25 years of experience operating regulated markets, clearing, and managing risk. trade[XYZ] brings the product development, market design, and technology behind the most liquid and robust markets on Hyperliquid.
Innovation and the protections of U.S. regulation shouldn’t be a trade-off. Together, we plan to prove it.
ICE is making a strategic investment in trade[XYZ] and joins us in building towards the future of Hyperliquid. A small group of market luminaries is joining as well, beginning with Stan Druckenmiller. For more than four decades, few investors have anticipated the great turns in markets as often as Stan. We’re proud to have him with us for the next one.
We’re building the U.S. market in parallel with our existing HIP-3 markets, which we’ll continue to expand and innovate on. We expect both to flourish. They each have a long road map ahead, from new asset classes to new ways to trade them.
To the Hyperliquid community, whether you were here before us or came because of us, thank you. You took a chance on new markets and you made them matter. You’ll forever be a part of this story.
Anything. Anytime. On ICE[XYZ].
Grass Founder @0xdrej says their infrastructure can’t keep up with AI demand.
“We had a very tight deadline to deliver a lot of data to a major AI lab. We were short on compute and we had a bunch of servers sitting in a warehouse. Our CTO flew into Ashburn and pulled an all-nighter, kind of slept on the floor, assembled the servers.”
New Delphi Podcast with Andrej Radonjic @0xdrej, founder of Grass
To a website, Grass looks like normal users browsing. Behind it is millions of opted in residential nodes and a data platform that has delivered exabytes of web data to the frontier labs
We get into how AI flipped the hard part of search upside down. The index used to be the moat, and crawling was free. Now AI tooling makes the index cheap, while AI crawlers have pushed the web into blocking everything. The hard part is getting the page at all
Training data is already a profitable business for Grass with most of the top labs and multiple Mag 7 companies as customers. Crawling for that data also means mapping the entire internet, which is what puts Grass in a position to build search on top of it. Contents API is live, Search is next, and multimodal grounding follows
00:00 Intro
00:43 From Nuclear Physics to Web Scraping
03:38 The Pandemic Signal Everyone Missed
07:31 The Smart TV Proxy Scandal
09:10 Why the Internet Is Blocking AI
11:56 Training Data vs Live Data
16:05 Mapping the Entire Internet
18:03 Delivering Exabytes to AI Labs
21:48 What AI Labs Really Pay For
24:43 How Robots Learn From Web Video
33:02 When Labs Change Direction
35:57 One API Call for Any Website
41:58 AI Flipped Search Upside Down
47:03 Can the Network Keep Up?
49:52 The Defense Tech of AI Data
52:58 Why Data Is the Alpha
57:08 Why AI Labs Won’t Buy Slop
59:17 The Metric That Matters Most
01:02:35 The $100 Billion Data Market
01:05:07 Who Actually Owns Grass
01:08:18 What a Real Moat Looks Like
01:13:16 What Happens Next
Disclosure. Delphi Ventures holds $GRASS
Full episode
Hyperliquid is going after markets far bigger than crypto.
What traders want to trade keeps changing. Last cycle that was crypto. Today much of the new activity is in prediction markets. Venues that offer all of it from one account keep those traders when the mood shifts.
Hyperliquid is building that onchain. Outside teams already list oil, gold and stocks next to its crypto perps. Since August anyone can also launch a prediction market about almost anything, and those markets trade from the same balance as perps. Options look like the next step.
Hyperliquid’s fees still rise and fall with crypto, averaging about $109M a month in the second half of 2025 and about $71M a month so far this year.
A wider range of markets should keep traders active when crypto cools.
Gauntlet founder @tarunchitra on why Crypto’s AI agents fell short.
“We started to see the first versions of trading agents and early AI agents. Those things were a little bit just meme coins with more steps.”
Is AI demand still being underestimated.
José: “One really interesting thing that Jensen talks about is that actually a third of their revenue is just classical computing moving from CPUs to GPUs.
All these things like data processing, search and recommenders, all these algorithms that used to run on CPUs are now moving to AI compute. And it’s growing 30 to 40% a year.
That’s revenue that’s not even accounted for.”
A new episode of Hivemind is out now!
This week the team discusses whether AI is a debt bubble, what quantum risk means for bitcoin, what’s next for the Hyperliquid ecosystem and more.
Timestamps
00:00 Intro
00:44 Has Crypto Bottomed?
03:05 BTC’s Morning Seller Is Gone
04:32 Token Unlocks Into Year End
07:14 Do the Midterms Matter?
09:23 Is AI a Debt Bubble?
10:40 The Trillion AI Capex Math
15:53 Anthropic’s Revenue Is Exploding
19:10 The Reflexive AI Demand Risk
25:00 Why This Isn’t 2000
33:51 Crypto’s Goldilocks Case
36:01 Who Gets Satoshi’s Coins?
37:59 Quantum Fear Lifts ZEC and Pearl
41:49 Has Quantum Changed Your BTC Bet?
48:13 Two Big Themes for Next Year
50:12 Papertrade’s Token Problem
59:11 Kinetiq and the HyperEVM Bet
1:09:31 Why Hyperliquid Users Stay Loyal
1:12:30 PUMP vs FOMO
1:16:29 The Rise of Anti-Social Trading
Delphi Digital retweeted
Institutions want their own rules inside Ethereum blocks.
A normal transaction on Ethereum is visible to everyone before it is included. That has pushed many institutions onto private chains with far less liquidity.
@ETHGasOfficial lets them book space in Ethereum blocks ahead of time. Transactions sent this way skip the public mempool and are screened against the institution’s own sanctions rules first. Each institution stays in control of its transactions without leaving Ethereum.
Being seen early is expensive for a fund moving a large position. Traders watching the public mempool can spot the trade and buy first, which pushes up the price the fund pays. With reserved blockspace, the fund can buy a whole block and decide what goes ahead of its trade.
Institutions do not have to leave Ethereum for a private chain to set their own rules.
AI needs about $1 trillion in revenue by 2029. Where does it come from?
Kevin: “The big takeaway for me is there’s definitely a path forward.
It’s not super clear, but it’s not as if all this installed compute and infrastructure is not going to earn some type of return on that capex.
It’s almost like this timeline game right now.”
h/t @venkyganesan
Watch the full episode here.
delphi.link/OctoberHivemind
Gauntlet founder @tarunchitra on who will capture the real money in AI.
“All the money goes to the top and the bottom. What is the top? The harnesses. What’s the bottom? Inference providers.”
New Delphi Podcast with Tarun Chitra (@tarunchitra), founder of Gauntlet and managing partner at Robot Ventures
Robot just led the $90M round in @NousResearch. Tarun spent three to four months on diligence, from OpenRouter data to GitHub forks, before backing Nous and Hermes Agent
We get into why crypto's first run at AI went wrong, why the crypto people who dropped the token won, why OpenClaw is the worst developer experience he's used, and why Hermes is closer to Ubuntu than to Android
He also found Chinese robot makers building on Hermes, and some inference providers gaming cache pricing
His market structure take: all the money goes to the top and the bottom. Harnesses on top, inference underneath. Hermes is like investing in Phantom or FOMO
00:00 Intro
06:34 Robot Leads Nous's $90M Round
09:37 Crypto AI Was Meme Coins With More Steps
14:40 Why Nous Stood Out Early
28:14 Hermes vs OpenClaw
35:39 The End of AI Lock-In
46:33 The Ubuntu of AI
56:17 Microsoft and Nvidia Join the Round
59:42 OpenRouter Is a DEX for AI
1:07:02 All the Money Goes to the Top
Disc. Delphi Ventures co-led the seed of Nous Research and invested again in the Series A and B
Full episode
Delphi Digital retweeted
Beyond the "every SaaS company has to pivot and become a router/harness to survive" thesis, there's another observation:
Open Source AI has made every fintech competitive with one another
It used to be that they were 'frenemies' but now both have their own router/harness/etc.
Gauntlet founder @tarunchitra argues every software company will have to become an AI middleman.
“Every SaaS company either has to have a harness or be a router because they need to get into the token order flow. That’s the easiest thing to monetize.”
Institutions want their own rules inside Ethereum blocks.
A normal transaction on Ethereum is visible to everyone before it is included. That has pushed many institutions onto private chains with far less liquidity.
@ETHGasOfficial lets them book space in Ethereum blocks ahead of time. Transactions sent this way skip the public mempool and are screened against the institution’s own sanctions rules first. Each institution stays in control of its transactions without leaving Ethereum.
Being seen early is expensive for a fund moving a large position. Traders watching the public mempool can spot the trade and buy first, which pushes up the price the fund pays. With reserved blockspace, the fund can buy a whole block and decide what goes ahead of its trade.
Institutions do not have to leave Ethereum for a private chain to set their own rules.
Read the consulting report for free here.
delphi.link/ETHgas
How much revenue does AI need to make to justify the spending?
Kevin: “If you’ve got $4 trillion of AI capex over the next three years or so, and you assume that capital needs to actually earn some type of return,
you wind up getting to a point where you need about $500 billion of free cash flow by 2029 to support that amount of capex.
Which translates, if you think it’s 50% gross margins, to about a trillion in revenue for the AI compute that’s actually being installed.”
h/t: @venkyganesan
A new episode of Hivemind is out now!
This week the team discusses whether AI is a debt bubble, what quantum risk means for bitcoin, what’s next for the Hyperliquid ecosystem and more.
Timestamps
00:00 Intro
00:44 Has Crypto Bottomed?
03:05 BTC’s Morning Seller Is Gone
04:32 Token Unlocks Into Year End
07:14 Do the Midterms Matter?
09:23 Is AI a Debt Bubble?
10:40 The Trillion AI Capex Math
15:53 Anthropic’s Revenue Is Exploding
19:10 The Reflexive AI Demand Risk
25:00 Why This Isn’t 2000
33:51 Crypto’s Goldilocks Case
36:01 Who Gets Satoshi’s Coins?
37:59 Quantum Fear Lifts ZEC and Pearl
41:49 Has Quantum Changed Your BTC Bet?
48:13 Two Big Themes for Next Year
50:12 Papertrade’s Token Problem
59:11 Kinetiq and the HyperEVM Bet
1:09:31 Why Hyperliquid Users Stay Loyal
1:12:30 PUMP vs FOMO
1:16:29 The Rise of Anti-Social Trading
Delphi Digital retweeted
Onchain options are the largest untapped market in crypto.
Retail demand for options is already proven in traditional markets. In Q2 2026 options brought Robinhood $342M in transaction revenue, more than stocks and crypto combined.
Capturing that demand is the next step for onchain options.
Who will end up with Satoshi’s Bitcoin when quantum arrives?
Ceteris: “It’ll either be China or the US who gets Satoshi’s coins and all the old coins.
I know some people think it’s bearish if China gets it and bullish if the US gets it, but I don’t really know if that’s true.
Just because China doesn’t let their citizens own Bitcoin doesn’t mean they don’t want to own a bunch of it.
The size of it is so big that regardless of which one of them gets it, you can’t really sell it.”
A new episode of Hivemind is out now!
This week the team discusses whether AI is a debt bubble, what quantum risk means for bitcoin, what’s next for the Hyperliquid ecosystem and more.
Timestamps
00:00 Intro
00:44 Has Crypto Bottomed?
03:05 BTC’s Morning Seller Is Gone
04:32 Token Unlocks Into Year End
07:14 Do the Midterms Matter?
09:23 Is AI a Debt Bubble?
10:40 The Trillion AI Capex Math
15:53 Anthropic’s Revenue Is Exploding
19:10 The Reflexive AI Demand Risk
25:00 Why This Isn’t 2000
33:51 Crypto’s Goldilocks Case
36:01 Who Gets Satoshi’s Coins?
37:59 Quantum Fear Lifts ZEC and Pearl
41:49 Has Quantum Changed Your BTC Bet?
48:13 Two Big Themes for Next Year
50:12 Papertrade’s Token Problem
59:11 Kinetiq and the HyperEVM Bet
1:09:31 Why Hyperliquid Users Stay Loyal
1:12:30 PUMP vs FOMO
1:16:29 The Rise of Anti-Social Trading
Gauntlet founder @tarunchitra argues every software company will have to become an AI middleman.
“Every SaaS company either has to have a harness or be a router because they need to get into the token order flow. That’s the easiest thing to monetize.”
New Delphi Podcast with Tarun Chitra (@tarunchitra), founder of Gauntlet and managing partner at Robot Ventures
Robot just led the $90M round in @NousResearch. Tarun spent three to four months on diligence, from OpenRouter data to GitHub forks, before backing Nous and Hermes Agent
We get into why crypto's first run at AI went wrong, why the crypto people who dropped the token won, why OpenClaw is the worst developer experience he's used, and why Hermes is closer to Ubuntu than to Android
He also found Chinese robot makers building on Hermes, and some inference providers gaming cache pricing
His market structure take: all the money goes to the top and the bottom. Harnesses on top, inference underneath. Hermes is like investing in Phantom or FOMO
00:00 Intro
06:34 Robot Leads Nous's $90M Round
09:37 Crypto AI Was Meme Coins With More Steps
14:40 Why Nous Stood Out Early
28:14 Hermes vs OpenClaw
35:39 The End of AI Lock-In
46:33 The Ubuntu of AI
56:17 Microsoft and Nvidia Join the Round
59:42 OpenRouter Is a DEX for AI
1:07:02 All the Money Goes to the Top
Disc. Delphi Ventures co-led the seed of Nous Research and invested again in the Series A and B
Full episode
Delphi Digital retweeted
New Delphi Podcast with Tarun Chitra (@tarunchitra), founder of Gauntlet and managing partner at Robot Ventures
Robot just led the $90M round in @NousResearch. Tarun spent three to four months on diligence, from OpenRouter data to GitHub forks, before backing Nous and Hermes Agent
We get into why crypto's first run at AI went wrong, why the crypto people who dropped the token won, why OpenClaw is the worst developer experience he's used, and why Hermes is closer to Ubuntu than to Android
He also found Chinese robot makers building on Hermes, and some inference providers gaming cache pricing
His market structure take: all the money goes to the top and the bottom. Harnesses on top, inference underneath. Hermes is like investing in Phantom or FOMO
00:00 Intro
06:34 Robot Leads Nous's $90M Round
09:37 Crypto AI Was Meme Coins With More Steps
14:40 Why Nous Stood Out Early
28:14 Hermes vs OpenClaw
35:39 The End of AI Lock-In
46:33 The Ubuntu of AI
56:17 Microsoft and Nvidia Join the Round
59:42 OpenRouter Is a DEX for AI
1:07:02 All the Money Goes to the Top
Disc. Delphi Ventures co-led the seed of Nous Research and invested again in the Series A and B
Full episode