‘One of the most influential analysts of the global economy’ - The Times. Agent & public speaking: Northbank Talent Management @NorthbankTalent Fulham fan
London, England
Joined February 2011
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Quick update: I’ve regained access to my X account. Please disregard any posts or messages sent from 6 June onwards.
Thank you to everyone who reported the issue, offered support and helped along the way. And thanks to X for its assistance; it’s much appreciated.
Best, Gerard
Gerard Lyons retweeted
Real household disposable income is expected to fall 0.8% this year.
This is what happens when the state grows, spends more of taxpayers' money badly, and taxes hard work to pay for it.
capx.co/healeys-state-knows-…
Brilliant as ever @DrGerardLyons in @CapX
Gerard Lyons retweeted
My piece in @thetimes. The danger is that the UK will wait for a crisis before doing what is needed to prevent one.
Britain needs 1980s shock therapy — not budget of postponement
thetimes.com/article/7d99377…
My piece in @thetimes. The danger is that the UK will wait for a crisis before doing what is needed to prevent one.
Britain needs 1980s shock therapy — not budget of postponement
thetimes.com/article/7d99377…
My piece in @CapX on whether banks should be taxed more
Tiered reserves could save four times what a bank tax hike raises
Read more: capx.co/healeys-tax-raid-on-…
My @thetimes piece. War, AI and resilience have defined the global economic landscape this year. War has fed inflation. The artificial intelligence investment boom has added to borrowing costs. Economic resilience has led central banks to be less fearful about raising interest rates
thetimes.com/article/792cb83…
Gerard Lyons retweeted
Today we are starting a mini-series on issues that nobody in the Rejoin camp in the UK has on their radar screen and that will hit them like a ton of bricks. In today’s first instalment, we write about a return of the sovereign debt crisis, now an increasingly likely scenario given political developments in France. This might not sit easy with the storytelling about the EU’s apparently so successful economy.
eurointelligence.com
Gerard Lyons retweeted
A lot of nonsense is being written and broadcast about how much the government will "save" by ending the triple lock on pensions.
This piece, by @CPSThinkTank fellow @DrGerardLyons, published by @CapX, provides a clear exposition of the numbers are far as we can know them – and is a sane, thoughtful analysis of the issues at stake
⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️
It would be nonsense to think that the changes proposed to the triple lock can pay for social care
✍️ @DrGerardLyons
Gerard Lyons retweeted
🧵Fifty years ago this week, Jim Callaghan faced fiscal reality and told his party: ‘We have not been creating wealth as fast as we have been distributing it.’
✍️@DrGerardLyons
Good morning. I have argued for curbing public spending. The focus on pensions is because the messaging is that pensions are set to pay for social care. They can’t. The state pension is not high based on OECD comparisons. So appropriate indexation is needed if triple lock goes.
1/ It was good to be on @NickFerrariLBC on @LBC at 8am. There are 3 challenges with the PM’s plans for social care: it is not clear this is the best way to proceed; it is not clear what the total cost will be & it is not clear how this will be financed. Let’s highlight the costs:
4/ The welfare bill is £315B & heading to £407B in 4 years. Pensions cost £151B and heading to £196B. The case for the triple lock to go is strong as it has a ratchet effect but it still needs to be replaced by a single or double lock to index pensions to earnings or inflation.
Wouldn’t worry. I came away from Anfield very content for all the reasons that have been mentioned by many others. And I remember Feb 96 when we were 91st in the actual football league and seeing us lose at Torquay who were the only team below us. We will be just fine this season.
My @Telegraph piece. The macro backdrop is mixed. One, three, four and five are the numbers that capture the UK economy. Growth is over 1%, inflation is stuck around 3%, interest rates look set to rise to 4% and unemployment is at 5%.
The missing number in this sequence is two. That is part of the problem. The inflation target is 2% and is not in sight of being met.
Gerard Lyons retweeted
On this week’s Any Questions, @AlexForsythBBC is joined at Sheffield High School in South Yorkshire by Sarah Champion MP, Dr. Caroline Johnson MP, Gerard Lyons and Danny Sriskandarajah.
Listen 8pm Friday / 1.10pm Saturday on @BBCRadio4 or on demand on @BBCSounds. #BBCAQ
Gerard Lyons retweeted
Andy Burnham is working on his first, make or break, Budget.
Renowned economist Gerard Lyons writes for us on it...✏️
He urges the PM to cut spending rather than hike taxes.
thesun.co.uk/news/40138639/a…
