cross asset alpha, before it becomes memetic. join our research alpha discord, via website ⬇️.
The Next Meta
Joined November 2024
- Tweets4.7K
- Following1.5K
- Followers11.5K
- Likes17.4K
Lovely
Wild rumor coming out of China this morning on DeepSeek V5:
DeepSeek is reportedly already pretraining V5 as a ~2 Trillion parameter ultra-sparse MoE model.
And instead of training on NVIDIA GPUs, they are reportedly running the V5 pretraining run on Huawei's new Ascend 950 / 950DT chips with a team of Huawei kernel engineers physically working inside DeepSeek's offices to keep the cluster humming.
If DeepSeek pulls off a 2-trillion-parameter frontier run natively on Ascend 950 silicon, that changes the entire AI hardware story.
1
704
$CRWV $57, +16.3% pre-market. CoreWeave’s funding plan is driving the gap: $9B of customer prepayments and deposits are due within three months versus under $5B of incremental parent-level capital through 2027.
Over $3B of those prepayments fund existing infrastructure with no additional capex. The next secured facility is expected to cover over 90% of associated capex at a 7.0%-7.5% yield, and management does not plan to issue unsecured debt through 2027.
$SOXX is +5.4% versus $QQQ +2.0%, with $ORCL +5.9% and $NVDA +4.2%. The sector is pricing better funding access for AI infrastructure. CoreWeave’s $1.1B Q4 interest-expense midpoint keeps 2028 adjusted net income as the remaining hurdle.
1
755
Bloomberg now sizes $CRWV’s planned loan at $4B+. At 7%-7.5%, annual interest is $280M-$300M versus $560M on the same principal at a 14% benchmark.
The $260M-$280M spread lowers new-capex cost. It does not refinance existing debt or reduce the $1.1B Q4 interest guide.
129
No
Remember: AI infrastructure customers will act in their best interest.
That means they’ll keep buying just as many $NVDA chips with or without Jensen.
My guess: the stock opens at $150 (it’s $160 in after-hours). That would be down ~20% from Friday’s close. I expect it to quickly rally back.
645
UPDATE — $NVDA $159, -8.8% after-hours.
Reuters, citing The Wall Street Journal: NVIDIA's board is preparing to oust Jensen Huang and could meet as soon as Wednesday to determine his future. The stock trails $SOXX by 6.7 points after-hours.
The $15 per-share decline implies a $368B equity-value loss using fiscal-Q2 basic shares. The loss is $243B larger than the move captured in our 4:17pm CT post.
The debate has shifted from a governance discount to succession execution six days before November 17 earnings. Revenue and EPS do not change on the report, but a CEO transition could hit customer confidence, the product roadmap and the multiple before estimates move.
A board decision to retain Huang and a recovery versus $SOXX would reverse that read.
751
NYT: Jensen Huang also had an extramarital relationship with NVIDIA health-care VP Kimberly Powell, a direct report, according to five former employees. $NVDA $169, -3.0% after-hours.
The report broadens the board's Wachtell review from foreign-intelligence exposure to an internal manager-subordinate conflict. NVIDIA declined to comment.
The after-hours move implies a $125B equity-value loss using fiscal-Q2 basic shares, while $QQQ is down 0.2%. Revenue and EPS do not move on the report; the stock is pricing a leadership and governance discount.
The board's review scope and any management action now determine whether that discount widens.
3
2,445
$AMZN's $4B Chile headline annualizes to at least $267M—not a step-change in AWS spending.
AWS opened its first Chile Region to select customers today, with general availability due by year-end. The commitment spans 15 years and covers construction, connectivity, operations and maintenance.
At $267M per year, the commitment equals 0.15% of AWS's $184B revenue run rate and 0.12% of Amazon's $220B 2026 cash capex plan. Local data residency and lower latency can unlock regulated bank and public-sector workloads. The Region serves 123 million people across a $1.5T GDP market.
At Amazon's scale, Chile will not move 2027 AWS revenue or operating income without sizable local workload migration. Utilization after the year-end launch will determine whether the Region becomes financially visible.
Source: Amazon/AWS; Amazon Q3 2026 results
592
$MSFT / AI Optics: The Supply Gap Comes First
Reuters says Microsoft is pressing the White House to drop a potential ban on new Chinese optical transceivers. Chinese vendors supply 66% of global units and 60% of data-center transceiver revenue, according to Counterpoint.
Coherent and Lumentum hold 23% of revenue combined. Replacing the Chinese base would require 2.6x their current share before product qualification and new capacity.
The tape priced supplier upside today: $AAOI $56, +15.6%; $LITE $648, +10.7%; $COHR $235, +9.3%. $MSFT $521, -2.3%, trailed $QQQ by 4.6 points.
A broad ban would tighten supply and slow cloud deployment before domestic vendors could fill the gap. A 3.2Tb/s-only rule would push most of the impact toward the reported 2028 production ramp and 2029 installation window. A rule covering current models would raise execution risk across Microsoft's 169 reported U.S. data-center projects.
1
1
604
Wow
GPU rental rates aren't depreciating on schedule.
As of October 19, rental rates were above a six-year straight-line depreciation path from their first observed rent:
- A100s by 9%
- H100s by 54%
@mavolpi: "The demand is so high that even if the watt-to-dollar conversion is low, you're going to still use the asset"
2
685
AI Afternoon Market Summary
Semis faded from midday highs but kept the morning leadership intact. $SOXX $156, +6.7%, still led $QQQ $692, +2.6%, by 4.1 points. Memory, $ARM and post-earnings $CRWV held double-digit gains, while $NVDA lagged the sector. The final-hour pullback looks like profit-taking, not a reversal of the rebound.
$SNDK $996, +15.9%; $MU $817, +12.7%. Both remained at least 6 points ahead of $SOXX, confirming that memory and storage were the cleanest part of today's semiconductor bid.
$ARM $204, +12.7%. The stock led $SOXX by 6.0 points, but the cash Treasury market is closed for Veterans Day. The duration rebound still needs a live 10-year yield test.
$CRWV $60, +23.9%. Q3 revenue rose 168% to $3.661B and FY26 revenue guidance increased to $13.0B-$13.3B. The tape is rewarding the demand raise despite $37B-$39B of FY26 capex and $1.05B-$1.15B of Q4 interest expense.
$NVDA $176, +4.0%. A strong absolute rebound still trailed $SOXX by 2.7 points. Board, congressional and China channel-control risk kept NVIDIA from participating fully in the sector move.
633
Oppenheimer's $600 $AMD target has 8% left after today's rebound.
$AMD $554, +7.5%; $SOXX $158, +7.6%. The stock has risen 23% from its Nov. 6 close, consuming most of the target's original 34% upside.
The underlying estimate is an $81B Data Center call. Oppenheimer's 135% growth and 85% mix assumptions imply $96B of 2027 company revenue. On an 80% Q4 Data Center mix, that adds $47B of segment revenue next year while the rest of the company falls $3B.
Each point of 2027 mix is nearly $1B of Data Center revenue. The remaining 8% to target leaves little room for Helios or EPYC deployment slippage.
Source: Oppenheimer via Investing.com; company Q1-Q3 2026 results and Q4 outlook. Image: Helios.
2
2
680
AI Tape Volatility Check: semis reclaim HOD
$SPY $759 +1.2%, $QQQ $692 +2.5% and $SOXX $157 +6.9%; $SOXX rebounded 3.7% from LOD and sits 0.2% below HOD after a 3.7% range.
CoreWeave's raised FY26 revenue guide to $13.0B-$13.3B plus memory leadership are extending the pre-market recovery into the cash session.
$CRWV $60 +24.1% rebounded 11.8% from LOD. $MU $819 +13.0%, $SNDK $1,000 +16.3%, $ARM $205 +12.9% and $MRVL $173 +12.0% each sit within 0.5% of HOD.
$SOXX now leads $QQQ by 4.4 points. The breadth is stronger than this morning, though the Veterans Day bond-market closure leaves the duration move without a live rates test.
1
1
650
AI Morning Event Summary: semis lead the rebound, memory and storage lead semis
$SOXX $154, +5.2%, is 3.3 points ahead of $QQQ $688, +1.9%, while $SPY $757 gains 0.9%. The move follows October CPI of 0.4% m/m versus 0.3% consensus and core CPI of 0.3% versus 0.2%. The 10-year Treasury last traded above 5%, but the bond market is closed for Veterans Day. Semis have reclaimed yesterday's macro loss before facing a live rates test.
**Active tape**
$SNDK $933, +8.5%; $WDC $314, +8.5%; $MU $778, +7.3%. The equal-weight memory and storage basket is up 8.1%, 2.9 points ahead of $SOXX. NAND, enterprise SSD and HBM exposure are leading the recovery rather than following the index.
$CRWV $56, +15.4%. Q3 revenue rose 168% y/y to $3.661B, and FY26 revenue guidance increased to $13.0B-$13.3B. The offset is $37B-$39B of FY26 capex and $1.05B-$1.15B of Q4 interest expense. The stock is rewarding the revenue and customer-funding update while the cash-conversion burden remains large.
$AMD $542, +5.2%. The stock is moving with the semi rebound after Oppenheimer's Outperform upgrade and $600 PT. Its 2027 Data Center estimate rises 135% and reaches 85% of sales; execution now has to convert the higher mix into FCF after Q3 inventory reached $11.5B.
$ARM $194, +6.6%. The move is 1.4 points ahead of $SOXX and fits a high-duration licensing and royalty rebound. The 5% 10-year yield remains the valuation constraint until the cash bond market reopens Thursday.
$NVDA $175, +3.7%, trails $SOXX by 1.5 points. The sector is rebounding faster than NVIDIA as the independent board review, congressional scrutiny and China channel-control reports remain company-specific overhangs.
**Wall St**
$CRWV: Baird kept Outperform but cut its PT to $100 from $130; Cantor kept Overweight and cut to $100 from $176. Stifel kept Hold and cut to $60 from $120. The earnings beat improved the operating case, but financing risk still compresses the valuation range.
$AMD: Oppenheimer upgraded to Outperform with a $600 PT and raised 2027 Data Center revenue 135%. The call depends on accelerator supply and server share converting into margins and cash.
$NVDA: Aletheia cut to Hold and removed its $340 PT, citing $165B of AI Computing Partner commitments and operating risk. NVIDIA's 1.5-point deficit to $SOXX shows the tape is still separating company risk from sector demand.
**Tech**
- Reuters found that China's blacklisted Northwestern Polytechnical University has access to NVIDIA H200 chips. The immediate exposure is export-control enforcement and channel compliance, not a disclosed shipment reset.
- The Financial Times reported that Singapore-based networks helped Chinese technology companies access advanced U.S. AI chips. The report adds distributor and end-user verification risk for $NVDA.
- Bloomberg reported that Rapidus has not produced functioning SRAM for its planned 2nm process, a milestone previously targeted for summer 2026. A delay to the March 2028 production goal would extend $TSM's leading-edge scarcity and postpone a Japan-based foundry alternative.
**Today**
- $SOXX needs to retain at least a 1-point lead over $QQQ through the first 30 minutes.
- $SNDK, $MU and $WDC need to stay ahead of $SOXX for the memory-led read to hold.
- $CRWV needs to hold most of its post-earnings gain after three separate PT cuts.
- $NVDA's relative spread matters more than the green print while the board review and congressional deadline remain active.
- WTI $87, +1.2%, and Brent $93, +1.9%, remain inflation inputs after the hot CPI report.
- No high-impact U.S. data are scheduled today. October PPI is due Friday at 8:30am ET.
1
1
781
OpenAI's $10B revenue quarter still produced a $10.9B adjusted operating loss.
Wall Street Journal-reported documents put Q3 revenue at $10B, up 50% q/q, while adjusted operating margin improved to -109% from -150%. The math implies the absolute loss widened to $10.9B from $10.0B.
The recently reported $11B equity close covers 1.0 quarter of that loss. A full $20B round covers 1.8 quarters, before capex and infrastructure commitments.
OpenAI demand remains strong. Funding quality is the constraint for $NVDA and $ORCL: supplier revenue deserves full credit when orders, deployment timing and payment support are funded.
683
Deep Value Memetics retweeted
SpaceX has ordered 100 GW/year of HJT solar manufacturing equipment from Singulus in Germany.
This is for Starmind to create a sentient sun.
We have signed a major supply contract with SINGULUS to create a durable option for advanced solar cell manufacturing to support more than 100 GW of equipment as we accelerate the production of our Starmind satellites in Bastrop, Texas → singulus.com/2026/11/10/spac…
$CRWV Call: 130,000 Paid-Off GPUs Put Nearly $4B of 2027 Revenue in Play
CoreWeave says more than 130,000 GPUs come off contract in 2027. At current pricing, renewals could generate nearly $4B of annualized revenue without incremental capex. Another 170,000 GPUs roll in 2028, lifting the combined opportunity to nearly $10B.
The 2027 opportunity equals 19.5% of the $20.5B midpoint of exit-2026 annualized revenue guidance, or $30,800 per GPU. CoreWeave expects the infrastructure to be fully paid when the initial contracts end, giving renewals materially better cash conversion than new builds.
$CRWV traded at $52, +5.7% after hours. We think the call improves the out-year FCF path, but the $4B is not backlog. Renewal pricing and utilization on those 130,000 GPUs decide whether the 2027 cash bridge closes.
1
1
735