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FOMC holds at 3.75–4.00%. Vote: 10–2.
Both dissents (Cook, Hammack) wanted another 25bp hike. That’s two votes for back-to-back tightening less than a week before the midterms.
What Warsh put on the table:
1) H1 GDP revised up to 2.4%, from 1.8%
2) Q3 likely tracking above 3%
3) Inflation above target for close to six years
No clear signal on December. Overall, the meeting delivered an expected hold with hawkish undertones.
Scheduled rate decisions drop to seven in 2027 and six in 2028. Fewer decision points and no guidance between them means each meeting carries more weight, and more risk of surprise.
ETF flows don’t lead Bitcoin. They chase it.
Correlation of daily net flow with BTC returns:
Prior 5 days: 0.54
Prior day: 0.40
Same day: 0.41
Next day: 0.09
Next 5 days: 0.03
The biggest inflow days arrive after the move is done. Before the top 10% of inflow days, BTC was up 7.3% over the prior five days, positive in 97% of cases. Much of it came before New York opened: +1.2% overnight vs +0.2% on a normal day.
Top-decile outflow days follow a 4.4% five-day drawdown.
Neither carries forward. After top-decile inflows, BTC was higher 20 days later 51% of the time. Showing little correlation with future price movement.
$80.5M of inflows across BTC and ETH ETFs last week.
BTC: +$301.2M, ending two straight outflow weeks.
Monday to Wednesday brought $1.07B in, then Thursday and Friday took $774M out. Thursday’s -$635.6M was the largest single-day outflow since June 25 (-$691.7M).
The level to watch is ~$78.1K, 7% below October 21’s close, now the highest of the past 20 days. Once BTC closes 7% below its 20-day high, ETF flows have historically flipped from +$74M a day to -$72M within a week. Saturday’s $79,107 low came within 1.2% of it.
ETH: -$220.7M, a fourth straight outflow week.
ETH ETFs have lost $1.22B since September 28, cutting year-to-date flows from +$1.62B to +$400.5M. 14 of 17 October sessions closed negative.
Back tomorrow. BYO laptop and ideas.
luma.com/th1tt2tg
Incoming: Hot Desk Wednesdays. Come build (and work) with us. Free desk, good people, connection guaranteed.
October 28 → luma.com/th1tt2tg
November 4 → luma.com/qt4iagy8
November 11 → luma.com/mivnxe1i
Spots limited, registration recommended.
Incoming: Hot Desk Wednesdays. Come build (and work) with us. Free desk, good people, connection guaranteed.
October 28 → luma.com/th1tt2tg
November 4 → luma.com/qt4iagy8
November 11 → luma.com/mivnxe1i
Spots limited, registration recommended.
Incoming: Key market moments this week.
Wednesday:
US: FOMC rate decision (2:00pm ET).
EU: ECB meeting begins (decision Thursday).
Other: Bank of Canada decision (9:45am ET) with its Monetary Policy Report.
Thursday:
US: Q3 GDP (advance) and September PCE (8:30am ET).
EU: ECB rate decision (14:15 CET), followed by the press conference.
Friday:
Asia: Bank of Japan decision.
What are you keeping an eye on?
About a 5th of ETF flow appears hedged via the CME basis trade.
Hedge fund net short peaked near 116k BTC in Dec 2024 and is now ~29k.
Less basis noise means ETF flows are a cleaner read of real demand today.
Every week we publish our perspectives on the markets (and more) through the lens of a market-tested liquidity provider, investor and incubator.
→ Eyes on the Market, our weekly market briefing
→ Research from @DWFVentures
→ Data stories and commentary
Be the first to read: dwflabs.substack.com/
Big ETF outflow on a day BTC barely moved?
It’s the one setup worth watching: BTC fell over the next 20 days in 8 of 12 cases. But all of those came from just three sell-offs.
A warning, not a signal.
DWF Labs retweeted
US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows in seven of eight selloffs of at least 15% since January 2024, @DWFLabs found.
Withdrawals hit a record $8.2B during the May–June 2026 decline, when Bitcoin fell 28.8%.
via @hardeyjumoh
cryptoslate.com/bitcoin-etfs…
Building and collaboration IRL. At this week’s HotDesk Wednesday, we brought our Dubai community together for a chance to connect, work, and learn.
@Legoman_Grizu from @hypewrks hosted a workshop on how GenAI is reshaping video production and how teams can collaborate at scale.
To join next week’s HotDesk event, register here: luma.com/th1tt2tg
