Head of Bitcoin Research @ The Bitcoin Layer

Cyberspace
Joined December 2015
Know where you are. Invest smarter. This is the Bitcoin State Grid, the daily compass we give our members. Watch how it works, then get involved 👇
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Unlikely outcome
Presidential: 0 of 7 prior cases since 1989 reversed (0% rate). This is the first ever, rarer than 100% of previous presidential runoffs. State-level runoffs: reverse in ~28% of cases (e.g. 33/120), so about the 28th percentile for frequency of occurrence.
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Scarcity Ela$tic → ₿ounded Supply predictability Di$cretionary → Predicta₿le Portability Juri$dictional → ₿orderless Durability / record resilience Centrali$ed → Distri₿uted Independent verification Tru$ted → Verifia₿le Ownership / custody Depo$it claim → ₿earer asset Freedom to transact Permi$$ion → Li₿erty
The truth is - Bitcoin is not volatile. Fiat money is.
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The Great Hardening Bitcoiners already knew
Imagine you wake up and: - PHP has two critical vulnerabilities, rated 9.2, and exploitation has already started, even before the fix was published. There's not fix for old versions... cybersecuritynews.com/php-ea… - Node.js has four high vulnerabilities, including arbitrary code execution. nodejs.org/en/blog/vulnerabi… - Eight TLS intermediates have private keys of 3 to 8 bits. I don't believe in conspiracy theories, but... arstechnica.com/security/202… All of this is in the field. Millions of machines are vulnerable. Most of them will not be patched in the near future and you can't really trust TLS anymore... The state of security is really, really frightening. And it won't get better anytime soon. 🫠
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The way the mainstream media (in The Netherlands) covers what is happening in France, might be even worse than the event itself. The still call it demonstrations and they say other groups now joined the students, like nurses, taxi drivers and farmers. The audacity…
#Parijs De berichtgeving van de #NOS 🤥 HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA🤡 Scholieren, studenten, verpleegkundigen, boeren en taxichauffeurs
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The Tesla Roadster is absolutely wild. One of the greatest examples of thinking out of the box. Incredible to see that SpaceX engineering is being applied to other fields. But I would choose the Porsche Mission S above the Tesla Roadster all day
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Ook handig voor de XR blokkades
Me hopping over the anti-ICE, pro-Palestine protesters at 85 mph
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Don’t let people bully you into self-custody, but don’t let them scare you out of it either.
On Bitcoin self custody: You have to crawl before you can walk You have to walk before you can run Stay within your abilities but... If you aren't planning to run, you probably aren't going to make it.
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PASSEN BITCOIN TREASURY BEDRIJVEN BIJ HET PRINCIPE ‘WEES JE EIGEN BANK’? 👀🟠 Bedrijven houden zelf Bitcoin aan, maar aandeelhouders vertrouwen hun Bitcoin-blootstelling juist toe aan die bedrijven. Johan Bergman, Denis van Beetz & Jurjen Meijer bespreken dit spanningsveld, onder leiding van Marc van Versendaal. 🇳🇱 5 november | 14:30 | Treasury Stage
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This is insane… All Ledger users, be aware!
UPDATE: I can confirm that the Ledger supply chain is compromised in Europe as well. @Ledger should initiate an immediate product recall to protect users. I just purchased a second device from a different Mediamarkt location today, recorded the unboxing process, and discovered spyware once again (video linked in the second tweet). The device was compromised in the exact same manner, featuring identical modifications (such as additional cables and an LTE module). This indicates its a widespread issue rather than an isolated incident, potentially affecting Ledger inventory across MediaMarkt and Saturn stores throughout Europe (comprising over 1,000 stores across 11 countries). My initial hypothesis was that these devices were returns that looked unopened to the employees and were just sold again as new however, a MediaMarkt employee confirmed that the device I purchased was not a return, and that returned Ledgers are sent directly back to the manufacturer rather than resold. Store records show the inventory originated from Aqipa GmbH. While Ledger's CTO was unsure if Aqipa serves as the direct distributor between Ledger and MediaMarkt, it appears to be the case. Given that Aqipa distributes across Europe, any physical retail store receiving stock through them may be at risk. I sent the first ledger to mark and the second one is going to ledger now, so that they can analyse it. If you purchased a ledger from anyone other than the official ledger store, make sure to check your device!!
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PROPERTIES OF MONEY Fiat ($) → Bitcoin (₿) Scarcity Ela$tic → ₿ounded Supply predictability Di$cretionary → Predicta₿le Portability Juri$dictional → ₿orderless Durability / record resilience Centrali$ed → Distri₿uted Independent verification Tru$ted → Verifia₿le Ownership / custody Depo$it claim → ₿earer asset Freedom to transact Permi$$ion → Li₿erty
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Ledger CryptoBilis theft: bitcoin update. A new transaction (still in the mempool) moves 0.605 BTC that traces back to collector A, the smallest of the thief's three BTC collectors. The path: - 00:17 UTC: 5.0 BTC from collector A, 4.69 BTC to bc1qq2gz...87c - 00:41 UTC: 0.605 BTC peeled to 3FhnXNh8...CNZy, 4.085 BTC back to bc1qq2gz (still there) - now: 0.3 BTC to a fresh address bc1qav4j...y7s, 0.305 BTC back to 3FhnXNh8...CNZy Each hop uses the same template: change returned to the address it came from, RBF on, about 40 sat/vB. We read this as likely the thief's own wallet peeling off a round 0.3 BTC, and not a service spending a deposit. Still unspent: 4.085 BTC on bc1qq2gz, 0.305 BTC on 3FhnXNh8, and 203.79 BTC on collectors B and C. mempool.space/tx/e62e4eef0c1…
Ledger CryptoBilis supply-chain theft: the bitcoin leg, traced on our own node. - 213.75 BTC drained from 279 victim addresses into 3 collectors (h/t @intangiblecoins) - drains started Oct 7, two days before the news, and ran until Oct 9 18:45 UTC, after Ledger's warning - one script: one sweep tx per victim, flat fee per collector, no RBF 203.79 BTC (95%) sits untouched on two collectors. The smallest one (9.96 BTC) was emptied overnight: 152-input consolidation, then a peel chain at ~1 sat/vB with round outputs (0.73 / 1.00 / 2.0079 BTC). All unspent, no exchange link yet. We're watching every output.
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The Great Hardening
Hardening continues.
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Ledger CryptoBilis supply-chain theft: the bitcoin leg, traced on our own node. - 213.75 BTC drained from 279 victim addresses into 3 collectors (h/t @intangiblecoins) - drains started Oct 7, two days before the news, and ran until Oct 9 18:45 UTC, after Ledger's warning - one script: one sweep tx per victim, flat fee per collector, no RBF 203.79 BTC (95%) sits untouched on two collectors. The smallest one (9.96 BTC) was emptied overnight: 152-input consolidation, then a peel chain at ~1 sat/vB with round outputs (0.73 / 1.00 / 2.0079 BTC). All unspent, no exchange link yet. We're watching every output.
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The mindset and skills developed through this process are vastly underestimated.
Going through a learning curve and actually fully owning your bitcoin keys without third parties will be much more valuable than people think.
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Holding your own keys is getting a new dimension here. But it comes down to the same principle. Keep your agency, your own ability to think and choose as you seem appropriate. Permissionless. @AlexOttaBTC
The biggest threat to humanity in 10 years, according to Claude.
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“I want to look my kids in the eye and say, ‘I wasn’t complicit.’” This may be my deepest motivation right now. That is one reason parenthood matters to society: it asks us to measure our choices against something greater than our own comfort and our own lifetime. It does not automatically make us honest or principled, but it gives those ideals a deeply personal weight. Our children will live with consequences we may never have to face. I cannot promise them that I will always be right. Being principled must also mean being willing to question myself and admit when I am wrong. But I want to be able to say that I did not look away when it mattered, or trade my conscience for convenience. Strength and honor.
Manifest Destiny, Man A tribute to @americanhodl8 (lyrics from my Hermes agent reading transcripts of his interviews & talks.) Astra + Opus 5.5 + Hermes + Suno + Higgsfield + Tesseract for editing + local model voice stack to make the singer have HODL's vocal characteristics.
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Loved it. Used some of this as input for our most recent letter. Looking forward to hear more often from Macro Cole.
Had the deepest macro conversation I’ve ever done publicly on What Bitcoin Did with @_DannyKnowles, discussing the U.S. fiscal situation, the bond market, the dollar, Bitcoin, and more. Hope you enjoy it. TIMESTAMPS 00:00 Introduction 05:45 Why Washington Can’t Fix the Debt 12:31 The Bond Market and Fiscal Dominance 21:46 Treasury Buybacks and Yield Curve Control 29:46 Why AI Won’t Solve America’s Debt Crisis 36:37 Why a Weaker Dollar Could Fuel Bitcoin 40:17 When Will the Government Intervene? 47:04 Bitcoin’s Next Bull Market 55:38 The Case for $500K Bitcoin in 2030 59:24 Why Own a Bitcoin Treasury Company? 1:17:51 Understanding mNAV and Treasury Valuations 1:27:20 Different Bitcoin Treasury Strategies 1:36:03 Consolidation and Institutional Scale $ASST $SATA $BTC
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Build the boats! @americanhodl8
Manifest Destiny, Man A tribute to @americanhodl8 (lyrics from my Hermes agent reading transcripts of his interviews & talks.) Astra + Opus 5.5 + Hermes + Suno + Higgsfield + Tesseract for editing + local model voice stack to make the singer have HODL's vocal characteristics.
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