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Central banks anchor a pivotal week for global markets, with rate decisions and forward guidance poised to set the macro direction heading into year-end. With Bitcoin volatility holding near multi-year lows, a packed calendar of GDP, inflation data, and tech earnings from Alphabet and Microsoft could provide the catalyst markets have been waiting for. 🇺🇸 CB Consumer Confidence (Oct) – Tue, Oct 27, 14:00 UTC 🇨🇦 BoC Interest Rate Decision – Wed, Oct 28, 13:45 UTC 🇺🇸 Fed Interest Rate Decision – Wed, Oct 28, 18:00 UTC 🇺🇸 FOMC Press Conference – Wed, Oct 28, 18:30 UTC 🇺🇸 GDP QoQ (Q3) – Thu, Oct 29, 12:30 UTC 🇺🇸 Core PCE Price Index (MoM & YoY) (Sep) – Thu, Oct 29, 12:30 UTC 🇺🇸 Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims – Thu, Oct 29, 12:30 UTC 🇪🇺 ECB Interest Rate Decision (Oct) – Thu, Oct 29, 13:15 UTC 🇪🇺 ECB Press Conference – Thu, Oct 29, 13:45 UTC 🇯🇵 BoJ Interest Rate Decision – Fri, Oct 30, 03:00 UTC 🇪🇺 Eurozone GDP QoQ (Q3) – Fri, Oct 30, 10:00 UTC 🇺🇸 Chicago PMI (Oct) – Fri, Oct 30, 13:45 UTC 🇨🇳 NBS Manufacturing PMI (Oct) – Sat, Oct 31, 01:30 UTC

Top five stats: $39.2 billion – Tokenized real-world assets held onchain as of October 16. 20,338 – Bitcoin wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC, an all-time high. $117 – Brent crude’s price registered a five-month high. 85% – Drop in long-term Bitcoin holders’ realized losses since August 12. $4,002 – Gold’s price on October 23 after dipping below $4,000, down 7.4% this year.

Bitcoin is back above $80,000 after yesterday’s dip, with the Fed meeting two days away. Its recent record: it shrugs off the Fed but flinches at inflation surprises. After the September 16 hike, it barely dipped and stood ~10% higher a week later. But when September inflation beat forecasts earlier this month, it fell within minutes. Markets price ~90% odds of a hold on Oct 27–28.

One of the clearest patterns in our Digital Wealth Survey: crypto integration follows a capital lifecycle. 94.2% of 18-25s hold crypto. Only 2% hold 10+ years. Integration peaks at 35-44 (CII 5.04), then dips. Not because conviction fades, because the planning window shortens.

Crypto has been moving with technology shares, so this week’s doubts over AI funding have been felt well beyond equities. With a Fed hold nearly fully priced for next week, the focus is on what policymakers signal for December. For full details, check out our blog post.

Headlines say the Fed is injecting $3.65 billion into the economy today. Look closer. The Fed holds mortgage bonds, and as homeowners pay them off, it gets that money back and puts it into short-term government debt. One asset swapped for another, so the balance sheet stays the same size. It’s not new stimulus. The bigger signals: the Fed has stopped shrinking its balance sheet, almost no cash is parked at the Fed overnight, and liquidity in the system is roughly $70 billion higher than a year ago. The next big moment is the Fed’s rate decision on October 28. What are you watching more, the rate call or the liquidity trend?

The first of four insights from our Q4 Market Outlook. One level to watch: the average cost of US ETF holders. US spot ETFs took in $2.65 billion in September, the second-largest month since October 2025, and most of it came after the Fed’s rate hike. Bitcoin spent 233 days below its holders’ estimated average cost of about $82,300 and now trades around it. That is the level the market is testing. Full outlook: nexo.com/blog/digital-assets…

Now live on @krakenfx.

Our Q4 Market Outlook is live. This is our quarterly report on where crypto markets stand and where they could head next, written by Nexo’s analysts to help you make sense of the quarter ahead. The big picture: Q3 was a recovery with clear causes. Bitcoin gained 42.7%, ending three down quarters in a row. A bond-market decision started it, and US spot ETF buyers kept it going. Our Q4 view is constructive, but conditional on rates. Two signals decide the direction: whether inflation data lets the Fed hold on October 28, and whether the 30-year Treasury yield stops rising. Inside, you’ll find a review of what drove the Q3 recovery, our Q4 view with seven market movers and three possible scenarios, and a calendar of the key dates to watch. Read the full report in our blog. nexo.com/blog/digital-assets…

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A lift from tech earnings gave risk assets some breathing room today, though steady oil prices and next week’s central bank calendar are keeping momentum contained. Read the full analysis on the Nexo blog. 🔗