
Always optimise for context prediction market Data / Research Curator @byPredicted
Joined July 2010
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some of my favorite slides from the Predicted Q2 prediction market report that @PetBerisha and i just released.
after $111bn in notional volume, the race in event contracts is getting clearer: the biggest players want to own distribution, brokerage, exchange, and clearing.
Robinhood earnings are in.
Another quarter of growth
📅 Tomorrow: Robinhood Markets is reporting Q3 earnings live on October 27 at 5:00 PM ET / 2:00 PM
PT — on X, YouTube, in-app, and at investors.robinhood.com.
Tune in to hear directly from @vladtenev and @shivverma: rbnhd.co/earnings-livestream
The recent @itomarkets aquisition
Omar retweeted
if I listened to this advice I’d still be in a job I hate and would dread waking up every morning
if you’re young and have no dependencies you should go all in and take risk
go live somewhere cheap, reduce burn and get to work
nobody else is going to do it for you
flood's trading partner was asked how he'd turn $100k into $1 million. his answer: "get a job"
kyle soska says a $100k portfolio is too small to devote your entire working life to compounding.
at $1 million, his answer changes. keep living costs under control, take smaller opportunities and wait for the rare trade worth sizing up.
people do often underestimate how capital intensive trading is.
Paul Atkins is a bull
🚨NEW: The SEC has approved @Cboe to list binary options tied to KPIs (key performance indicators) reported by public companies, including @coinbase, @RobinhoodApp and @MARA.
The contracts let traders take yes/no positions on metrics like Coinbase trading volume, Marathon’s BTC production and Robinhood’s customer and revenue numbers.
Robinhood is expected to be the first retail broker to offer them.
For crypto, this creates a new way to trade crypto-linked company performance beyond betting directly on $BTC’s price. The SEC approved this specific securities-options structure, while leaving room for differently structured contracts to fall under CFTC jurisdiction.
@SECPaulSAtkins called it “a new spirit of harmonization, innovation, and investor choice.”
Does featuring Sydney Sweeney = being able to raise at a 2 billion valuation?
@Novig are rumoured to be raising new funding at a valuation of up to $2 billion, four times the $500 million they hit eight months ago.
Most of their $105.4 million funding in total so far has come from:
1) $18 million Series A in August 2025
2) $75 million Series B, led by Pantera Capital, in February 2026.
To put that in context, Kalshi have raised about $2.7 billion and Polymarket about $2.9 billion across all their rounds, and both are valued above $20 billion.
Novig have raised more than any other prediction market we track, with ProphetX next at $35 million.
If you read our Novig piece last month, you'll know they only opened nationwide on 4th August 2026 and crossed $1 billion in notional volume on 12th September 2026.
They have kept going since, trading $484 million in the week to 3rd October 2026, up 17% on the week before.
Novig credit the Sydney Sweeney campaign for a lot of that.
In the 20 days either side of its launch in early September 2026, trading volume rose nearly 94% and first-time depositors rose more than 218%.
"We have to be willing to take outsized risk relative to the size of the company, doing that in a responsible way, of course," said co-founder Jacob Fortinsky.
The round hasn't been confirmed yet, but it could be before the end of 2026.
More insights like this in the link below:




























