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π§΅ Breakdown of the NFL & Arbitrage
releases below! Enjoy!
THE ACCURACY IS INSANE π€―
Simulation:
Packers ML
Panthers 21, Packers 27
Watson Over 4.5 REC
Metchie Over 1.5 REC
Actual Result:
β
Packers ML
β
Panthers 19, Packers 27
β
Watson 8 REC
β
Metchie 3 REC
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π We simulated the TNF Panthers @ Packers game 5,000 times: it runs through Love, 280 yards in the most typical game
π― First TD: Coker (+1400 on ESPN BET)
π― Love 268 pass yds, 3 TDs (Over 259.5)
π¨ Love 12 rush yds (Over 5.5)
π¨ Young 10 rush yds, 1 TD (Over 9.5)
π¨ Jacobs 74 rush yds (Over 59.5)
π Jacobs 37 rec yds (Over 17.5)
π Watson 98 rec yds, 2 TDs (Over 72.5)
π Final: Packers 27-21 (10 flags, 2 turnovers)
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PropsEdge retweeted
TNF DvP Cheat Sheet, CAR @ GB: how both defenses rank vs every position, to find your best prop matchups, send it to your group for tonight π²
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PropsEdge retweeted
πNBA POTDπ
πEvan Mobley over 26.5 pts+rebs. Books have this about even; the rest of the evidence leans over. ATL allows the most pts + reb to power forwards this season (50.8 a game, league average 32.7). 3 for 4 this season. Median of 29 over his last 10.
πNBA POTDπ
πEvan Mobley over 26.5 pts+rebs. Books have this about even; the rest of the evidence leans over. ATL allows the most pts + reb to power forwards this season (50.8 a game, league average 32.7). 3 for 4 this season. Median of 29 over his last 10.
π We simulated the TNF Panthers @ Packers game 5,000 times: it runs through Love, 280 yards in the most typical game
π― First TD: Coker (+1400 on ESPN BET)
π― Love 268 pass yds, 3 TDs (Over 259.5)
π¨ Love 12 rush yds (Over 5.5)
π¨ Young 10 rush yds, 1 TD (Over 9.5)
π¨ Jacobs 74 rush yds (Over 59.5)
π Jacobs 37 rec yds (Over 17.5)
π Watson 98 rec yds, 2 TDs (Over 72.5)
π Final: Packers 27-21 (10 flags, 2 turnovers)
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π We simulated the Kings @ Pelicans game 5,000 times: the most typical one ends Pelicans 121-112
π― First basket: Hunter (+1100 on DraftKings)
π₯ Acuff 25 pts (Over 22.5)
πͺ Acuff 5 reb (Over 2.5)
πͺ Williamson 7 reb (Over 5.5)
π€ LaVine 6 ast (Over 3.5)
πͺ LaVine 4 reb (Over 3.5)
π₯ Sabonis 20 pts (Over 17.5)
π Final: Pelicans 121-112, after 1 lead change
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π We simulated the Cavaliers @ Hawks game 5,000 times: the most typical one ends Hawks 121-116
π― First basket: Daniels (+1220 on DraftKings)
π₯ Mitchell 26 pts (Over 24.5)
π Mitchell 3 threes (Over 2.5)
π₯ Johnson 24 pts (Over 21.5)
π Johnson 4 threes (Over 1.5)
π₯ Alexander-Walker 20 pts (Over 18.5)
πͺ Alexander-Walker 4 reb (Over 3.5)
π Final: Hawks 121-116, after 2 lead changes
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TNF DvP Cheat Sheet, CAR @ GB: how both defenses rank vs every position, to find your best prop matchups, send it to your group for tonight π²
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PropsEdge retweeted
Perfect Props (Wed, Oct 28), led by Brook Lopez and Stephon Castle: props players have hit every game this season, still priced at the books, to build parlays from π
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PropsEdge retweeted
Week 8 Matchup Heatmap: every defense ranked in the stats you bet (green = allows the most), to spot your best prop matchups π
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Perfect Props (Wed, Oct 28), led by Brook Lopez and Stephon Castle: props players have hit every game this season, still priced at the books, to build parlays from π
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π We simulated the Thunder @ Mavericks game 5,000 times: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the story, 31 points in the typical run
π― First basket: McCain (+700 on BetMGM)
πͺ Gilgeous-Alexander 8 reb (Over 3.5)
π Gilgeous-Alexander 3 threes (Over 1.5)
π₯ Flagg 27 pts (Over 24.5)
πͺ Flagg 8 reb (Over 6.5)
π₯ McCain 18 pts (Over 17.5)
πͺ McCain 6 reb (Over 3.5)
π Final: Thunder 117-112, after 14 lead changes and 12 ties
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Week 8 Matchup Heatmap: every defense ranked in the stats you bet (green = allows the most), to spot your best prop matchups π
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π We simulated the 76ers @ Pacers game 5,000 times: it's a coin flip, and the most typical run ends 76ers 119-116
π― First basket: Oubre
π Maxey 3 threes (Over 2.5)
πͺ Maxey 4 reb (Over 3.5)
πͺ Embiid 11 reb (Over 8.5)
π€ Embiid 5 ast (Over 4.5)
π₯ Siakam 33 pts (Over 22.5)
π Siakam 2 threes (Over 1.5)
π Final: 76ers 119-116, after 7 lead changes and 4 ties
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PropsEdge retweeted
Week 8 Matchup Map: the Panthers have given up the most rush yards to RBs, plus every other defense vs every position π
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π We simulated the Pistons @ Knicks game 5,000 times: it goes down to the wire, Knicks by 1 in the most typical run
π― First basket: Huerter
π₯ Brunson 26 pts (Over 25.5)
πͺ Brunson 4 reb (Over 3.5)
π₯ Cunningham 28 pts (Over 23.5)
πͺ Cunningham 7 reb (Over 5.5)
π₯ Towns 23 pts (Over 19.5)
πͺ Towns 18 reb (Over 11.5)
π Final: Knicks 109-108, after 11 lead changes and 13 ties
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PropsEdge retweeted
πNBA POTDπ
πAusar Thompson over 3.5 assists. Books lean over at this number (-111 with the juice removed). NYK allows the most assists to small forwards this season (8.67 a game, league average 4.59). 2 for 2 this season. Median of 5 over his last 10.
PropsEdge retweeted
π We simulated the Trail Blazers @ Lakers game 5,000 times: it keeps landing close, and the typical one is Lakers by 4
π― First basket: Thybulle from three (+1200 on Hard Rock Bet)
π₯ Reaves 24 pts (Over 23.5)
πͺ Reaves 6 reb (Over 4.5)
π₯ Avdija 23 pts (Over 22.5)
πͺ Avdija 11 reb (Over 6.5)
π₯ Lillard 22 pts (Over 19.5)
π Lillard 6 threes (Over 3.5)
π¨ Kessler scores with 22 seconds left to seal it, Lakers 119-115 after 18 lead changes and 9 ties
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Week 8 Matchup Map: the Panthers have given up the most rush yards to RBs, plus every other defense vs every position π
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