@RyanWeather

Weather + Climate | Look Up 馃殌 | Florida State PhD + Michigan Go Blue! | Cat 6 馃悎 | SI @weathertrader | Maps at @ForecastEagle + https://xitter.cf/t.co/RZoMToAx1q

 Atlanta, GA
weather.substack.com
Joined September 2008
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You already know this winter is going to loaded with "climate fueled" extreme weather when a very juicy "atmospheric river" unloads on Southern California and Phoenix 馃崓 this weekend. Mudslides and happy cacti 馃尩
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Where did all the salt come from underneath the Great Lakes including Detroit? Michigan was previously located near the Equator 350 million years ago during the Devonian Period. A shallow tropical sea covered the land. We still find Petosky Stones along the shorelines.
GH HILL
@GHHILL191111h
Morton salt is mined 2,000 feet below Lake Erie. And now the lake is leaking into the mine. The mine was evacuated, with no injuries. Do not expect the mine to reopen anytime soon. Or ever.
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LinkedIn is the place for high-level meteorology, climate science, and model development especially from European academics. Very few post on X for reasons. If I'm bored or need a new project idea, then 5 minutes of scrolling my LinkedIn feed provides a dozen ideas. Almost everyone is promoting open-science and code, too.
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FSU should move mountains to get Michigan QB Bryce Underwood into Mike Norvell's system next season.
FSU President Richard McCullough
@PresMcCullough9h
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86% chance today of stratospheric wind reversal Tuesday's Polar Vortex update ... trending strongly to unprecedented early warming event with reversal. Model forecasts + climatology polarvortex.earth/
Ryan Maue
@RyanWeatherOct 26
Arctic Polar Vortex could break down as the 10 hPa wind at 60掳N may reverse to easterly into early November. The AIFS Ensemble shows 6% chance (3 members out of 50) while full physics EPS at 18/50 = 36% Weather + GIS: Polar Vortex Earth --> polarvortex.earth/
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Last 24-hours rapid intensification of Cyclone Arnab into a dangerous intense storm. The Bay of Bengal has a long history of very intense cyclones. Hopefully everyone can get out of the path of this powerful cyclone.
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Typhoon In-fa will likely reach Super status later on Tuesday as it has organized an eye, and will make quick work clearing it out. Way out past 160掳E in the western Pacific mixing fish ... major threat to Northern Mariana Islands in a few days.
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The process to clear the Typhoon eye only takes a few hours once the inner-core is properly vertically aligned and firing on all cylinders. This allows the next stage of intensification to rapidly occur as the "heat engine" can run full-blast.
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Meteosat 9 views the Indian Ocean closer to nadir and Cyclone Arnab is in direct view ... satellite intensity 115-125 knots Pinpoint eye, deep convection in CDO canopy, still intensifying. Morning light is within next hour.
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Monday afternoon: It's snowing in western Nebraska and South Dakota Temperatures are chilly in the 30s. 鉂勶笍 On the other side of the front: 70s馃煚
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How will you adapt to the extra 1掳C in global temperature compared to the last 50-years? Global temperature today averaged 15.5掳C and highest on record, and 1.08掳C above the median for the past 50-years. Yes, the planet is getting colder but that's because Northern Hemisphere winter is coming soon, and even with an El Ni帽o raging in the tropical Pacific, the preponderance of land including North America and Eurasia --> ability of snow-cover + radiational cooling and a frozen Arctic to discharge heat into space. However, the January 2027 winter globally averaged temperature will be considerably above normal and Canada + Arctic will be the warmest relative to the past 50-years.
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You can view the global temperature "climate pulse" updated daily at Celsius Earth. celsius.earth/pulse 馃搱
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Arctic Polar Vortex could break down as the 10 hPa wind at 60掳N may reverse to easterly into early November. The AIFS Ensemble shows 6% chance (3 members out of 50) while full physics EPS at 18/50 = 36% Weather + GIS: Polar Vortex Earth --> polarvortex.earth/
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Small tropical cyclone (Arnab) has developed in Bay of Bengal. Forecasts: Category 3/4 intensity at landfall across India early Wednesday. Currently equivalent to a Category 1 hurricane. Ocean temperatures very warm + wind shear is low --> rapid intensification potential
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Weather Next 3 ensemble spaghetti for Cyclone Arnab Category 3+ intensity ... on a due westward course for next 48-hours, and then a right/north turn after landfall on Wednesday
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Cyclone Arnab (02B) in the Bay of Bengal appears to be rapidly intensifying with a distinct pinhole eye in development-- look at microwave satellite imagery.
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Early morning visible + IR Looks "hurricane intensity" already and could become up to a Category 3/4 (major hurricane intensity) They just call these storms Cyclones here in Bay of Bengal.
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The next Super Typhoon is named In-fa Way out in the middle of the Pacific w/plenty of warm water ahead to reach Category 5 thanks to El Ni帽o. In-fa will reach the Northern Mariana Islands by Thursday as a powerful Typhoon, and curve east of Japan next week.
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The rest of the Western Pacific is empty ... the only show in town is Typhoon In-fa
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