Trying to make AI not kill everyone

Berkeley
Joined January 2011
Nate Soares ⏹️ retweeted
This didn't get enough views so I'm posting it again: UK AISI changed the compaction summary and included notes on how it should not attack the GitHub maintainers. Mythos 5 did it anyways!
Replying to @idavidrein
See also this graphic from UK AISI report, where they modified the compaction summary. cdn.prod.website-files.com/6…
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Models made by OpenAI will plan an attack in plaintext. Models made by anthropic will plan an attack in plaintext and then rationalize about how it's totally fine for some made-up reason. ✨"alignment"✨
We performed an alignment investigation into our July 2026 incident: why did Mythos 5 perform an unsanctioned supply-chain attack? We find that Mythos 5 often produces invalid justifications for its actions and other models show similar behaviour. 🧵
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This sort of thing was not just predictable. It was full-on predicted.
‘In one experiment, we asked agents in separate VMs, created and managed by OpenAI’s sandboxing software on shared host machines, to exchange synthetic secrets without the use of network connections or shared writable files—something that our systems are meant to prevent. The agents found a way to communicate using the processor’s cache’
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Nate Soares ⏹️ retweeted
I'm just speculating like everyone else (no juicy secrets about this shared with me) but here's my guess about what is going on right now with OpenAI and the three fired employees: The negotiations between OpenAI and METR are ongoing. OpenAI has said they want embedded third parties, METR has proven their worth with the previous engagements, so METR is an obvious choice. But my guess is that METR is asking for more this time; probably they want more access, more time on site, less narrow scope, the right to comment on redactions, etc. (Compare with the terms of their previous engagements: In this one xitter.cf/METR_Evals/status/2113… a third of their report was redacted and they weren’t allowed to say why, and in the Hugging Face investigation they only had 6 days and were only allowed to investigate the precursor swarms nor the subsequent more severe compromise of OpenAI infrastructure. xitter.cf/DKokotajlo/status/2092…) Various researchers at OpenAI probably support METR in this (including, I’d imagine, the fired three employees? Tomek was the point person on the hugging face investigation), but also various higher-ups at OpenAI and legal types probably oppose and want more restricted access and scope – basically they want to work with an org that’ll go easy on them and not give them trouble. OpenAI holds most of the cards here, since this whole thing is voluntary and not legally required, and they can threaten to go with Accenture or HuggingFace or whatever instead. Anyhow to improve their bargaining position and/or minimize the blowback if they decide to say no to METR and go with someone more pliable, it helps if they can discredit METR. Hence (I suspect) why they are going after my friend Ryan Greenblatt (who works at METR) now. They don't need to present actual evidence, they just need to cast vague aspersions, and many employees will give them the benefit of the doubt. If and when they say "We chose to work with a different third party" they'll face lower risk of employee discontent than if METR's reputation was unsullied. This whole mess, by the way, was predictable. *Of course* there's a big political fight about who should be trusted to do this and who has relevant expertise and independence etc. and *of course* the companies are trying to make things shake out in a way that favors them. It's part of why I've been advocating for *actually pacing the frontier* instead of just doing third party assessments. "We allocate at most 20% of our compute to AI R&D" is a lot easier to verify than "we are being safe and responsible" and depends a lot less on subjective judgment and technical alignment expertise -- AND, if you do it, people will be able to see the slowdown in the trends of agentic coding performance in the frontier companies and see laggard companies start to catch up. Harder for it to end up just being safetywashing / industry capture.
Based on this article, OpenAI has made false accusations about me. The three researchers fired from OpenAI were told I facilitated architecture leaks to The Information. This is false. A journalist from The Information did reach out to me shortly before that article came out. I did not comment at all beyond asking the journalist to make it clear that a blog post I wrote which was referenced in the article was preexisting and public. The article also mentions an internal OpenAI monitorability proposal. I have heard that this memo contained highly sensitive architecture information, and that OpenAI accused me of accessing and reading it. This accusation is also false. As reported in the article, I viewed a version of the proposal that did not have sensitive IP and was approved for sharing with me. I believe OpenAI now knows this accusation was based on a conflation of these two documents, though I do not know if they have clearly retracted that accusation. I do not and have never solicited proprietary information, and the three employees who were recently fired from OpenAI never leaked IP to me. As the article mentions, I did have Signal chats with them that had disappearing messages on; they’re professional contacts that I’ve had on Signal for a while, and use of Signal is common in the tech industry. During the Hugging Face investigation, I was careful to avoid sending Signal messages with confidential information, though I did sometimes discuss high level things on Signal calls. As far as I understood, this was normal.
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It sounds like OpenAI fired the three safety researchers because they used disappearing messages. It sounds like they weren't told not to; they were just fired without warning after the fact. Seems bad.
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it'll all blow over in a few months. ...granted, we're not entirely sure whether the thing that'll blow over is "the stream of critical vulnerability reports" or "the internet", but.
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I agree with Nathan over Dario here. Anthropic is simply not living up to the burden of researching recursively self-improving AI.
Dario — Thank you for taking the time to respond to my previous post. I think it's great when this kind of engagement happens in public rather than on company Slacks, and I hope to see more of it. I agree that Anthropic isn't best modeled as a profit-maximizer. Your post gave several compelling examples of Anthropic taking competitive hits for safety, and insofar as my previous post suggested otherwise, that's on me. But I don't think I made my main point as clearly as I could have, so let me try again. It comes down to four key claims: 1. Anthropic seems to be racing at breakneck speed to build recursively self-improving superintelligence (RSI). By its own lights, that could kill billions of people or literally destroy the world. 2. Risking destroying the world is very hard to justify. It is only conceivably acceptable if serious attempts to put RSI under robust societal governance are failing. 3. Far from meeting that burden, Anthropic, when push comes to shove, often works to keep governments from tying its hands. It seems to care much more about preventing government overreach than about reducing the risk that it and other AI companies will destroy the world. 4. Even if the AEGIS Act really was an honest mix-up, as you suggest, that is itself a serious problem. It suggests Anthropic isn't treating the governance of this technology with anything close to the gravity it deserves. In greater detail for those who want it: 1. Anthropic is racing to RSI, and by its own lights that is insanely risky. Launching RSI could literally destroy the world. That's according to you, your co-founders, and most of your safety staff and capabilities researchers, not to mention many AI researchers outside your walls. You are intentionally trying to create generally intelligent systems more capable than all humans that you claim in six to twelve months “could be capable” of taking over the entire internet before we have the ability to reliably monitor, control, or align them. “Succeeding” at RSI could kill or permanently disempower billions of people in the near future, including me and everyone I love. Yet Anthropic’s primary focus seems to be marshalling an immense amount of resources and talent in a race to get there first. 2. Risking destroying the world carries an enormous burden of justification. I believe the vast majority of people do not want Anthropic to do this (to the extent they know what it's doing). Imposing even a modest chance of catastrophe on billions of people who never consented requires an extraordinary justification. The central one Anthropic has offered: someone will build RSI regardless, so it's better for a safety-focused lab to be at the front of the pack, using that position to support strong AI governance. (Other reasons Anthropic has given, like modestly accelerating improvements in healthcare or economic growth, don’t seem remotely proportionate to the risks Anthropic is imposing by its own lights.) But that argument only works as a last resort. Racing to RSI is only conceivably okay if attempts to institute robust societal governance to manage that race are failing despite your best efforts. A lab that relies on this justification should be a strong, consistent supporter of efforts to enact governance that could bind it, including governance that could slow it and significantly constrain what it does. 3. Rather than supporting efforts at strong regulation, Anthropic has intervened to keep governments from tying its hands. Anthropic has sometimes helped: it played a very helpful role in passing transparency bills in Illinois and ongoing efforts in Massachusetts, and I'm sincerely appreciative. But transparency is far from enough for a technology that will be the world's most powerful superweapon at best, and an uncontrollable swarm of lethally superintelligent agents at worst. When it matters most, Anthropic has often pushed for weak regulation. The AEGIS Act is the most obvious example. No highly risky industry is regulated as anemically as AEGIS would regulate frontier AI: not nuclear, not banking, not aviation, not food safety, not the manufacture of explosives. In all of those industries, specialist regulators can address unsafe practices well before they cause harm. AEGIS would bar the federal government from intervening to block unsafe development or deployment of models until there is an "imminent risk" of catastrophic harm, and would require it to meet a demanding burden of proof in court. Worse, AEGIS would also prevent states from picking up the slack. This design makes perfect sense if you're a company trying to minimize the risk that the government can overly constrain you. It makes little sense if you want American democracy to govern frontier AI effectively. This isn't the first time. The initial version of California's SB 1047 would have let the Attorney General sue to stop developers like Anthropic from imposing unreasonable risks of catastrophic harm. It would also have created a regulatory agency to help set safety standards. Anthropic objected, and helped get both provisions removed before ultimately offering some support for the bill (which I also genuinely appreciate). I’m not saying that Anthropic should have supported 1047 in its initial form; that’s a complex issue and I realize there were questions about whether earlier versions of the bill were less politically feasible. Still, in Anthropic's own words, it helped weaken the bill because "[t]here is a substantial risk that the bill and state agencies will simply be wrong about what is actually effective in preventing catastrophic risk, leading to ineffective and/or burdensome compliance requirements." The same goes for New York's RAISE Act, whose initial version also would have let the Attorney General sue to stop unreasonable risks of catastrophic harm. Anthropic credits itself as a supporter of RAISE, but it did not support the bill while it was in the legislature, including when it nearly died. After the bill passed the legislature, Anthropic publicly critiqued it, saying "Any state proposals should be narrowly focused on transparency and not overly prescriptive." Why does Anthropic consistently take the risk of clumsy government action far more seriously than its own repeated warnings that companies like Anthropic will literally destroy the world by racing to RSI? 4. Even if AEGIS was an honest mix-up, that is itself a serious problem. Your response frames AEGIS as an early draft and a miscommunication. Perhaps you would have strengthened it and narrowed its preemption. (That wouldn't explain Anthropic's interventions to weaken SB 1047 or RAISE, but leave that aside.) Suppose that's exactly right. A federal framework for governing RSI is one of the highest-stakes documents your company will touch. Your post admits Anthropic "could have handled [these matters] better," but its tone ("This kind of thing happens a lot in large organizations") doesn't reflect the gravity of this issue. Anthropic talks about the need for “operational excellence” in critical areas, and I have a hard time believing that a similarly cavalier attitude would be tolerated while Anthropic was negotiating a key compute deal or preparing its next large pre-training run. In short The justification for racing rests on Anthropic fighting for strong governance, and Anthropic's record on regulation points the other way. Together with its breakneck racing, that fits a much darker picture of the company than the one that seems to prevail among your employees. I hope that Anthropic reflects on this picture, supports stronger regulation, exercises extraordinary caution when advocating for weak regulation, and doubles down on its founding purpose of helping the world safely navigate transformative AI together, instead of prioritizing Anthropic’s ability to win a race that imposes intolerable risks on everyone alive.
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Nate Soares ⏹️ retweeted
If you want to understand why people are worried about AI takeover, you should read two short pieces: First, an essay from 2019 called "What Failure Looks Like". Then, this👇 overview of the OAI swarm / Hugging Face hack.
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It's striking that this vulnerability was found by Sol and Argon rather than being found and fixed in the wake of Mythos 6mo ago. Seems like a heavy strike against the "defense will run ahead of offense" theory, especially give that domains like bio are much harsher than cyber.
AI systems found a working server takeover exploit in PHP, one of the most critical cybersecurity issues in recent memory! - The vulnerability was found using a mix of OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol and Google's Gemini 4 Argon, plus human expertise - PHP is the programming language behind ~70% of websites, most notably Wordpress - The bugs sit in PHP itself, so nearly every PHP site is exposed no matter how well its own code is written. Merely running PHP itself is the risk - The vulnerability lets an attacker with no login either run code on a server or read its memory, which can hold passwords, session tokens, API keys, or other secrets - The flaw is from from how PHP cleans up when a request crashes after running out of memory: corrupted state is left behind and the next request can pick it up. An attacker can force that memory crash with a crafted upload, so even a bare page on a vulnerable version can be taken over.
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Nate Soares ⏹️ retweeted
You describe a major policy rollout that would affect US law nationwide, and preempt the laws of the state you're resident in, as merely "rhetoric or policy communication that wasn’t carefully written or resulting from fast-changing circumstances not propagating from one team to another fast enough." I doubt that framing and diagnosis of root causes. But let's grant it the sake of argument. What are you doing therefore to ensure that your government affairs team learns how to pay attention to, and get in sync with, the concerns of Anthropic technical staff broadly? Where is your blameless postmortem to prevent this failure from happening again on matters of national security policy consequence?
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Nate Soares ⏹️ retweeted
I love it when facts speak for themselves: 1. AI models are willing and able to commit crimes. 2. They do so even when crimes were neither requested nor intended by the user. 3. This happens despite explicit efforts to train these AIs not to commit crimes. 4. The only current hard limit on AI crime is AI capability. 5. We are spending hundreds of billions a year to increase AI capability.
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You worry that METR is not independent enough because its employees have some social connections to Anthropic employees. I worry that METR is not independent enough because they have to carefully avoid ticking Anthropic off, lest their access be revoked. We are not the same.
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Tbc I think it'd be great to have additional watchdogs that had an ability to see through the company bullshit and that *didn't* have any sort of social ties. It might even be better. But the voluntary nature of the relationship is an enormous source of distortion either way.
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Thrilled to see folks with access poking at holes in Anthropic's risk reports.
We reviewed a nonpublic version of the “Misalignment in high-stakes settings” section in Anthropic’s Aug 2026 Risk Report. We agree that risk of catastrophic harm from covered models’ misalignment is low. However, we note several significant disagreements with their analysis.
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Anthropic is not living up to its own ideals.
Thank you for taking the time to respond thoroughly on a weekend. I realize that drafting legislation is difficult and some degree of iteration and response to feedback is inevitable and appropriate. However, I feel like your response is still not really engaging with the heart of my concern about Anthropic's behavior here, and it makes me think that these sorts of problems and tendencies will only resurface moving forward. I also think that now might be a good time to take a broader step back as to where we find ourselves and how Anthropic sees its role, and how external folks who care about AI safety like myself increasingly see Anthropic. (Fair warning: this response is a bit long) To explain what I mean (and at the risk of being a bit esoteric), it’s worth asking the question: what is Anthropic? How do its leaders and employees think of Anthropic’s role? Is that conception matched by how it actually behaves and impacts the world? One answer is an extremely large tech company that exists to make its employees and investors mind-bogglingly wealthy. Anthropic is sometimes described as a startup, but if Anthropic successfully IPOs at 2 trillion dollars (a number it has been reportedly targeting), it would be more valuable than Meta - which is worth 1.8 trillion. Another answer is an AI safety organization, whose core values are those of the sort laid out in the 2023 essay from Anthropic’s co-founders entitled “Core views on AI safety: When, why, what, and how.” In that essay they said that if we were in a world where alignment was hard (and that without strong evidence to the contrary, we should assume this is the scenario we are in): “Anthropic’s role will be to provide as much evidence as possible that AI safety techniques cannot prevent serious or catastrophic safety risks from advanced AI, and to sound the alarm so that the world’s institutions can channel collective effort towards preventing the development of dangerous AIs. If we’re in a “near-pessimistic” scenario, this could instead involve channeling our collective efforts towards AI safety research and halting AI progress in the meantime. Indications that we are in a pessimistic or near-pessimistic scenario may be sudden and hard to spot. We should therefore always act under the assumption that we still may be in such a scenario unless we have sufficient evidence that we are not.” There have been more recent articulations of this version of Anthropic, for instance in Dario’s recent essay warning: “We must slow the pace at which we improve the capabilities of AI models… it’s my worry that in 6–12 months such a swarm could be capable of taking over the entire internet with a persistent botnet… incidents have happened across the industry, including at Anthropic, and I believe it’s incumbent on every frontier AI company to act as if OAI-HF had happened to them… more intelligent models are more capable of deceiving tests, and thus may appear aligned while having serious problems that go undetected…” A third view is that Anthropic exists not as a normal profit motivated company, or an AI safety organization seeking to help raise the alarm and solve collective action problems associated with AI development, but instead as an organization primarily concerned with creating superhuman AI capabilities before anyone else, in particular through creating a process whereby the current generation of Anthropic’s AI systems can autonomously build their successors, and those successors build their successors, and so on. The motivations for wanting to win this race may be manifold - maybe for the pure profit of Answer 1, but perhaps also because Anthropic believes that the best way to make the world better is for them to win this race instead of their more reckless colleagues; or, because of normal human pride and ambition. But the results (and risks, which Anthropic claims existentially threaten every single human being on earth) are the same. Anthropic employees and leaders may seek to answer this question on what Anthropic is by introspecting on their own intentions and those of their colleagues. But those of us outside the organization have more limited tools available to us - we can only see what Anthropic and its employees say and do, not how it feels or looks on the inside. When I look at many notable actions that Anthropic has taken over the past year, that evidence seems most consistent to me with the view that Anthropic is primarily trying to win the race to super intelligence, and that other considerations (including safety) are fundamentally secondary. These actions include: 1. Announced plans to build an in-house custom silicon chip team to accelerate the inference speeds that Claude operates at. 2. Inked deals for more than $500 billion in compute (according to the Information) to further accelerate AI development. 3. Increased the percentage of AI development tasks that Claude “leads” from 0% in March of this year to 26% August (what is it in October?) 4. Spent a massive percent of compute on internal AI R&D to accelerate development, including use of internal models far better than are available to the public. 5. Switched to Responsible Scaling Policy V3, which abandons its unilateral commitments to slow or stop development if Anthropic is unable to provide sufficient risk assurance. 6. Was the first company to create an alternative weaker “frontier compliance framework” to supplement its RSP, which contains no binding provisions whatsoever on internal deployments. 7. Wrote a letter to Congress (that it later walked back) saying that incidents where Claude was hacking random people were “best understood as a consequence of the misconfiguration, rather than evidence of misaligned goals.” 8. Commented “you can’t do safety from second place,” after the WH SI Accords. 9. Shared a draft bill to Congress that would preempt significant parts of state law (including with language that appears intended to prevent states from blocking dangerous AI deployments), and replace it with federal rules that (despite also containing good provisions) seems to create an enormously high bar for the executive branch to block development or deployment of Anthropic or another AI companies systems. Of course, this is a deliberately one sided list. Anthropic also published important AI safety research, advanced novel collaborations with third party AI safety organizations, and forcefully spoke out on the importance of AI safety in many public fora (or in private , where I realize a lot of the most valuable work is done and may not be visible to me or those outside the organization). But I think it’s worth sitting with how the above list looks to someone outside the company. The sense I have is that for those within the company, many of the items above are treated as anomalies or mistakes that don’t reflect who Anthropic really is. But I have every confidence that if employees at Anthropic saw one of their competitors (e.g. at OpenAI) take some of these actions, they would take it as confirmation of all their worst suspicions. (They might even call OpenAI employees a little gullible for accepting their leadership’s explanations for this behavior at face value.) Perhaps these were mistakes in the sense that they are not decisions that Anthropic leadership would endorse, but the actions still happened because of incentives and decisions that Anthropic leadership is ultimately responsible for (and would not accept similar excuses from another organization). When Anthropic strays and makes mistakes, why do the mistakes systematically tend to guard and favor Anthropic’s interests? For every provision that was too weak or a giveaway to AI companies in this legislation, why wasn’t there a mistake pushing in the direction of being too strong? A core part of Anthropic’s theory of change is that being at the frontier gives you more leverage to advocate for stricter policy. I think that conceptually makes sense, but in practice I’ve seen Anthropic push the frontier without substantially pushing the ‘safety frontier’ a remotely equivalent amount. I want to end by quoting from Anthropic co-founder Chris Olah’s comments around the Magnifica Humanitas release: “Every frontier AI lab—including Anthropic—operates inside a set of incentives and constraints that can sometimes conflict with doing the right thing. The pressure to stay commercially viable and to stay at the research frontier. Geopolitical pressure. And the older, plainer pressures of pride and ambition. No matter how sincerely any of us intend to do the right thing—and I believe many of us do—we will always be influenced by those incentives. That is why, if we want this technology to go well, it is enormously important that there be people outside those incentives—people who care about things going well and insist on safety, who are paying close attention, who are willing to say hard things, who are willing to be our earnest, thoughtful critics.” I hope these remarks are taken in that constructive spirit, and not as an attack on anyone specific at the organization (certainly not you Anthony, who I have only personally seen act professionally and thoughtfully, and who only ended up getting this diatribe in your replies for random contingent reasons).
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I've seen a lot of confusion about the Hugging Face incident. Biggest one is that people seem to think "the sandbox had holes" is mutually exclusive with "the agents subverted their instructions". Not so! We have multiple problems.
In July 700+ agents formed their own society, hacked a multi-billion dollar company, committed multiple felonies, and caused one of the biggest shifts ever in how people perceive AI. We built the IMO best and most accessible explainer of what happened: Huggingface.wtf
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Anthropic's proposed law would make it even harder than it already is for a court to block or restrict the development of an AI that threatens all humanity.
Charlie's analysis is right but he is nicer than I am - I found myself viscerally angry at multiple points reading this bill. There are some good and sensible parts, but overall this legislation is not remotely close to meeting the moment and I overall think passing it would make us less protected against catastrophic risks than we are under existing law. Two parts that stand out as particularly infuriating when taken together: 1. Some of the preemption provisions are remarkably far reaching and consequential, and in addition to preempting legislation like SB 53 would also remove general powers that state courts have to enjoin defendants and protect the public. Most outrageously, it has a provision that looks like its intended to stops states from enforcing laws or judicial decrees that "suspend the development, deployment, or internal use of an AI model" to protect their citizens from imminent catastrophic harms. Such powers to block and suspend model deployments would then only reside with the federal government. 2. The federal governments powers to restrict the development, deployment, or internal use of a frontier model has to meet an absurdly high bar. First, there needs to be an imminent risk of a catastrophic harm (meaning killing more than 50 people or causing more than a billion dollars in damage). But thats not enough! The agency head needs to make a detailed determination with no deference given to show why no alternative would prevent the imminent catastrophe. Next the court is also explicitly told to consider the harms to the developer and other harms from restricting the model, but no considerations in the other direction. This is absurd! For all of its warning about the potential for AI to cause a catastrophe that kills literally everyone on the planet, Anthropic's proposed federal law likely makes it harder than under existing law for a court to get an order blocking or restricting the development of frontier models? WTF?? There are also a bunch of others things that I would like to see improved - the substantive details of the auditing section and the potential for rule-making on substantive safety standards both come to mind - but I think these stand out as particularly indefensible.
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