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In less than a week we'll be presenting our in-depth analysis of John Healey's Autumn Budget at our post-Budget event on Thursday morning.
Thursday 29 October | 10:30 - 12:00 | Online
📅 Sign up to join here: ifs.org.uk/events/autumn-bud…
"A big choice was made by the Chancellor to allow borrowing to rise across the forecast," @HelenMiller_IFS says on @BBCPolitics Live responding to today's #Budget.
"We are delaying the point at which we get down borrowing, and with lower headroom we are more exposed."
📺@HelenMiller_IFS discusses the "big chunky Budget document" on @BBCPolitics Live:
"Lots of fiddly measures, lots of them really quite small, some good, some not so good in my opinion.
I can't see any sense of a move towards a simpler tax system."
#Budget
"The planned overall spending envelopes are quite tight. If you want to increase the NHS in line with what it's usually been increased to, or to get defence to 3%, that almost certainly looks like you'd have to cut some areas of government."
📺 @HelenMiller_IFS on @BBCPolitics:
Institute for Fiscal Studies retweeted
fees like lots of fiddling, short-term things, new complications - a 'young entrepreneurs allowance', 'starter ISA', different business rates exemption threshold for retail, leisure & hospitality ... etc . I don't hear a clear, coherent vision or a simplification of tax system
Institute for Fiscal Studies retweeted
Looks like borrowing is only falling by *£1billion* this year compared to last year . The consolidation delayed again.
Institute for Fiscal Studies retweeted
Only one tax measure that has a final-year scorecard costing of £1bn or more: the capital allowance changes. That's unusual
Institute for Fiscal Studies retweeted
Just look at the policy measures table in the budget --- it's huge. Runs over many pages. Lots and lots of really
small things
Institute for Fiscal Studies retweeted
Plans to get Defence to 3% of GDP largely kicked to next year’s spending review.
Expect overall spending plans will still imply very tough spending review with cuts to some public services in coming years
Spending plans look to me like Achilles heel of the fiscal consolidation
Institute for Fiscal Studies retweeted
As expected – defence investment plan “funded” -- being done by moving money from elsewhere. Will need details to know where it is coming from
Institute for Fiscal Studies retweeted
Need to see details… but a new ‘founders relief’ in capital gains tax sounds to me like it might be bonkers. Important detail will be who gets the relief and what justifies it. Am struggling to imagine an economic rationale …
Institute for Fiscal Studies retweeted
Sounds like landlords being hit – again. They already face relatively high taxes. Higher rates will discourage investment. Expect higher rents.
Institute for Fiscal Studies retweeted
As expected – more businesses taken out of business rates. + another temporary measure to freeze rates for some. A long run plan for business rates still not on show.
Institute for Fiscal Studies retweeted
With “Headroom” going to £15bn, I expect that means that the OBR is relatively pessimistic on nominal earnings – i.e. they don’t think higher inflation will lead to large rises in wages and therefore income taxes
Institute for Fiscal Studies retweeted
Chancellor moving to take policy levies off of energy bills – but someone still has to pay. Looks like the cost is moving into general taxation
Institute for Fiscal Studies retweeted
Borrowing still coming down this year. But the fiscal consolidation pushed back again. Government still planning a sharp fall in borrowing in next few years.
Institute for Fiscal Studies retweeted
Allowing the ‘headroom’ to absorb impact of high debt interest costs is reasonable choice - but not costless. It means more borrowing at a time when borrowing is expensive. Lower headroom means less insurance against future bad news
Institute for Fiscal Studies retweeted
Welcome to see commitment to fiscal discipline. As expected fiscal rules being met. But don’t take too much comfort from that fact alone. Pencilling in a cut to borrowing is the easy bit – it’s delivering it that’s hard.
'We really need a bigger picture, wholesale: "What are we trying to do with our gas and electricity markets?" and not just "let's just move this around briefly."'
📺 @HelenMiller_IFS explains that our current system of taxes and levies are 'all over the place', on @BBCPolitics:
"You can move costs off the standing charge but they have to go somewhere else... you can't disappear them altogether."
📻 @HelenMiller_IFS speaks to @BBCr4today ahead of today's Budget on announced changes to standing charges:




