Always have something to say. Should probably type more carefully.
Joined November 2024
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Can’t tell if this is joke
I’ve learned my lesson with this market.
I’m not falling for it again.
I’m trimming my positions on the way up via aggressive covered calls.
I’ll be prepared with a lot of cash next time the market plummets.
This market has shown us 10+ times this year what it’s capable of and how sensitive it is to every bit of news, no matter how big or small.
I’ve learned.
Now it’s time to implement my new strategy.
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If you’re using the word “Leg” in any kind of investing context, you need to hang it up
#whatarewedoing
High-beta growth names are already down 70–90%, yet most people still refuse to trust any bounce.
That’s fine. You don’t have to trust them.
But in my view, the path of least resistance from these levels is now higher, not lower.
Another leg down of similar magnitude would effectively take many of these names toward zero.
So understand what you’re betting on if you’re still calling for another massive leg lower after a 70–90% drawdown.
At some point, the risk/reward shifts dramatically, whether sentiment agrees with it or not.
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Found another guy with common sense
If you’re a student of market history, you’re wise enough to never make market calls and avoid any false messages from your ego that you have the slightest ability to foresee short or medium term market fluctuations.
Sadly it’s often the smartest people with the biggest egos. This is why Buffett was the GOAT. Not only a world-class investing mind but zero ego.
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Literally why is he so committed to defending him
#stopposting
People have no idea how sophisticated nation state activities are
If you are a target of opportunity for China it’s not unheard of for them to dedicate O(1000) humans dedicated to compromising you
This is what happened w their NYT hack in 2013, which was designed to send a message
They will compromise your friend’s friend’s friend to compromise you
And work down that chain until your friend invites you on a fun trip on a private plane to Mexico/Thailand/wherever (example)
Where some night you have a very boozy dinner and then you show back up at the house and some girls are there
You’re drunk and make a mistake and then you’re owned until you’re disposable
Nation state kompromat for “target’s of choice” is a system designed to find any individual’s weakness (you’re bisexual; a gambler, an alcoholic, drug addict, have a debt, adulterous, etc) and then force them into a situation of maximum amplification of this weakness
99% of people can be compromised using nation state capabilities and tactics
nytimes.com/2013/01/31/techn…
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Rare L from Bill
An alert:
@JensenHuang is human. And he is an incredible human. Even incredible humans make mistakes.
He takes full responsibility as he should.
We should all support him and his family.
Onward.
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The way you outperform in markets is by taking advantage of these people
the market is not stupid and very forward looking. it correctly is calling for AI misses now but do not be surprised if it predicts beats far earlier than prior cycles. ppl who crowing that mkt is broken missed that stocks “should” go up when LT outlooks get better and vice versa
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I’m not sure how you can observe what just happened over the past week and takeaway that anybody should be leaning into “old school” stock picking but let’s unpack why a bit:
"buying cheap companies": lets start with the fact that in a world where a larger share of the market's x-sectional vol is factor vol vs. idio vol (teapawt.net/0xFaust12/status/21009…) that "cheap" is not a sufficient criteria for an investment to follow your thesis. Being blind to factor exposures of the position, counterparty dynamics like crowding, and short term fundamental trends are all forces that can/will move your position against you even if you have long "duration". In practice, buying a "cheap" company means holding a position(s) with negative to neutral momentum, positive residual volatility, negative perhaps negative profitability which are generally deleterious bets to be making and will present a drag on your total return during your holding period.
"accepting volatility and holding for 2-5 years": I don't have too much new to say here other than the fact that it is more likely your "long duration" horizon will result in you holding 50-60% drawdowns vs. 20-30% ones (you can confirm empirically), so in trying to be more clever than the pods you will in fact have constructed a much worse quality return stream for yourself (cough cough Lone Pine, Eminence, etc). Moreover, old school fundamental investing does not make use of risk models in the modern sense and, per the above, in a market increasingly trading less on fundamentals, your approximation of risk will be even less relevant leading to the deeper than expected drawdowns noted above.
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Unfortunately blocked by “Brett Caughran” for my constructive criticism.
Luckily I can still give him money.
#canttaketheheat
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Please let “Brett Caughran” know that nothing he writes is remotely legible.
Nobody will tell me with a straight face that they understood a word of this.
We get that you want to sound like a “sophisticated finance guy”, but this is unacceptable conduct
#notenglish
unavailable
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Sequoia is a successful fund, but it’s absolutely insane that anyone would put out assumptions this heinously ridiculous based on “Elon said so”.
This might be the most outrageously stupid revenue model ever made tbh.
Congratulations on making a lot of money from dumb retail
Over the last week I built a bottoms up SpaceX financial model through the end of 2028
The numbers that came out are insane
There are wide error bars given how quickly things are changing but I wanted to distill something complicated into something that can at least be debated
* This is not investment advice!!!
** Sequoia is a major SpaceX shareholder
*** Past performance is not indicative of future results
