Wizard of Alpha

Fundamental Analysis #Bitcoin & #Cryptomarket Horizon: July 31 → December 31, 2026. Focus on all drivers likely to impact the price of Bitcoin and the crypto market as a whole. 1. Macroeconomics & Monetary Policy (Dominant Driver) The Fed is currently maintaining rates in the 3.50-3.75% range. The base case market scenario for the second half of 2026 is a single 25 bps cut (Q3 or Q4), with a significant probability of "higher for longer" if inflation accelerates again. Base case scenario (1 cut): BTC range 70-90k. Optimistic scenario (2 cuts + soft landing): 100-120k. Pessimistic scenario (no cut / stagflation): 45-60k. The strong dollar and the high opportunity cost of non-yielding assets remain a structural constraint. Any significant improvement in liquidity conditions (repos, bank reserves, Fed balance sheet) would be a major catalyst for overall risk, including Bitcoin. The US midterm elections in November 2026 will add political volatility and could delay or accelerate regulatory progress. 2. Institutional Flows & Spot ETFs: US spot ETFs saw intermittent positive net flows in July (several 5-8 day streaks, with cumulative amounts of several hundred million dollars). BlackRock IBIT continues to dominate. However, the 2026 cumulative total remains in significantly negative territory after the massive outflows in May-June (several billion dollars). Bitcoin ETF assets under management remain high (around $79-80 billion recently). For a sustained recovery, the market needs sustained positive net flows, not just relief inflows. Flows remain the most immediate barometer of institutional demand. 3. Corporate Treasuries & Structural Demand: Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) holds approximately 843,000 BTC (average cost ~75.5k), valued at around $54 billion at current levels. The company continues to fund buybacks and adjust its balance sheet. Other corporate treasuries and pension funds are maintaining gradual accumulation, but the pace has slowed compared to 2025. This structural demand (ETFs + corporate + potential sovereign bonds) is absorbing some of the post-halving supply, but is not yet sufficient to offset speculative outflows during periods of risk-off. 4. On-Chain & Valuation Metrics: Realized price: 61-62k zone (significant structural support). MVRV: around 1.2-1.4 (a "reasonable" valuation zone, far from the cycle extremes >3.5). Miners: in relative accumulation mode (negative MPI, Puell Multiple <1). Hashrate around 0.9-1 ZH/s, with recent difficulty drops (up to -10%) that have temporarily improved profitability (hash price ~$29-33/PH/s/day). Network activity: consolidation (active addresses in the middle of the range). These levels indicate that the market is neither euphoric nor in extreme capitulation. A drop below the realized price would be a deeper stress signal. 5. Supply & Mining: The post-halving 2024 reduced issuance. The 2026 difficulty adjustments provided relief to miners, but profitability remains tight at these price levels. Continued consolidation or a drop would force further mining capitulation (hash price increase, but temporary selling pressure). Conversely, a rally above 80-90k would quickly improve margins and reduce selling pressure. 6. Stablecoins & Crypto Liquidity: The stablecoin supply is showing contrasting movements (outflows on some platforms, record trading volumes). USDT and USDC remain the main drivers of liquidity. A sustained replenishment of stablecoin reserves on exchanges would signal a return of capital ready to enter the market. Currently, the picture is mixed and does not yet provide massive support. 7. Regulation (US, EU, Global): EU: MiCA is in full implementation (deadline July 2026 for many countries). DAC8/CARF is coming into force. Clearer framework, but costly compliance → consolidation of market participants. US: The CLARITY Act (SEC/CFTC separation) has an estimated 27-32% chance of passing by 2026. The GENIUS Act (stablecoins) and SEC/CFTC initiatives ("Project Crypto") are progressing in parallel. The November midterm elections will be a political turning point. Asia & elsewhere: divergent approaches (innovation-friendly in Singapore/Japan, restrictive elsewhere). Regulatory clarification is a structural positive in the medium term, but delays or inter-agency divergences maintain a risk premium. 8. Geopolitics: Middle Eastern tensions (Iran, strikes, fragile ceasefires) and other shocks (Venezuela, etc.) have shown that Bitcoin still behaves primarily as a high-beta risk asset, with episodes of conditional hedging during prolonged oil shocks. An energy escalation that pushes inflation A negative outcome would be forcing the Fed to remain restrictive. De-escalation and a return of liquidity would be positive. 9. Competition & Capital Rotation: The rotation towards AI-related assets has absorbed some of the speculative flows. Bitcoin needs to regain its narrative (macro store of value + institutional adoption) to compete. The correlation with tech indices remains high. 10. Price Consensus & Scenarios for End of 2026: Forecasts remain highly divergent: Conservative/realistic: 70-100k (Standard Chartered to 100k after successive revisions). Institutional bullish: 150k (Bernstein, some), up to 170k (JPMorgan). Extremes: 200-250k (some) or, conversely, 38-50k in a prolonged bearish scenario. Technical aggregates/models: often 68-80k on average for year-end. Options markets reflect high uncertainty (relatively balanced probabilities between 50k and 130k+). Summary of catalysts until the end of 2026: Positives: Sustained recovery in ETF flows + corporate accumulation. At least one Fed cut + stabilization of inflation. US regulatory clarification (CLARITY or equivalent). Realized price maintained as a floor + MVRV remaining contained. Historical seasonality and post-halving supply absorption. Negatives/risks: More restrictive Fed + strong dollar. Massive new ETF outflows. Geopolitical escalation → energy inflation. Prolonged mining capitulation + low stablecoin liquidity. Unfavorable regulatory disappointment or midterms. Underlying bias: The market is in a post-deep correction consolidation phase. Structural fundamentals (limited supply, institutional adoption, high realized price) remain intact, but macroeconomic and flow catalysts still lack the conviction needed for an impulsive recovery before Q4. The August-October period will be crucial for positioning ahead of the midterms and year-end monetary policy decisions. Key areas of focus: daily ETF flows, dot plot/Fed language, MVRV/realized price, and US regulatory developments.

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Bitcoin Update🧙‍♂️ The zones are clear and precise, and the order blocks are working perfectly on HTF. Here, we have Orderblock Daily and Orderblock Weekly. Note the upper and lower zones with double confluence OB of daily and weekly timeframes. The latest retest on the daily timeframe for the last order block was a very simple signal to interpret: A green candle touches the zone, the next candle opens, initially green, creating a small wick, then returns to the candle's opening point and turns red (bearish). The open always occurs during the Asian session, in this case Tokyo, followed by Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong. Each asian session is divided into two parts, as the Asian markets have a lunch break mid-session. It's very easy to map the Asian session and see who is following. The strength of this moment session, combined with the order block retest confluence, was one of the best bearish signals. The only requirement is to follow the candles live. Asian markets pushed the US and Euro out of the main order block zone weekly. They know that a strong barrier would have repelled buyers, and a battle lasting several weeks would have begun. Given the current global instability, the timing isn't right. Patience, it's not over yet. They will try to accumulate as much liquidity as possible before the big breakout. #Crypto #Bitcoin #TradingPsychology

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