🇦🇶 🦘 Zoomer Australian | Demographics | Nation Building | Politics
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Joined August 2024
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This was a really good read, I have various thoughts on it, such as questioning about its extrapolation of decline but broadly the arguments are very intriguing and pokes at the points I made yesterday, whatever we suffer, the global south will suffer worse.
People often forget that sub Saharan Africas population is at least ~5% overcounted due to poor state capacity for sampling, let alone a comprehensive census, and there is an incentive to inflate numbers to increase foreign aid allocations.
Now what happens when that 5% who don’t exist, don’t have their four kids per woman? And those kids who don’t exist also don’t have theirs?
Well, you need to revise down the projected future African population by hundreds of millions.
They’re still going to grow by a few billion, but the difference between 3.5bn and 4.5bn Africans in 2100 is no trivial matter.
🇦🇶Svolvær retweeted
Been saying this for a while.
Fertility in developing nations drops off a cliff once modernity sets in. Immigrant groups tend to fall off a fertility cliff after a generation or two as well.
Rome was only 25%-50% Italian at the height of the empire. Became 99% by the middleages
Worth the read.
I recommend reading to my essay on anthropological causes for low birth rate. In the back-half I review Finnish birth rate specialties with statistics. Of course you'll need a translator for the text but it could be worth a read.
sarastuslehti.com/2026/10/06…
🇦🇶Svolvær retweeted
This is true btw
And it’s also a much bigger blow to clannish peoples rather than Anglo-style nuclear family peoples
White people, despite our low fertility, actually got a ‘soft landing’, our fertility declined a lot, but over a prolonged period, centuries.
Other groups have collapsed from above 4-5 to sub replacement in a much more condensed period (a couple decades).
Our demographic crisis will seem like child’s play compared to places like Mexico, who not only have dropped very fast and hard, but they can’t even convince their own people to stay, many of these countries are going to crash faster and harder than us.
Even African fertility is fast collapsing and constantly being revised down, just off a much higher base.
The constant revisions have dropped projections from 4.5bn late century to 3.8bn and further revisions downwards are likely.
That’s 700 million less Africans coming than we previously expected.
We are the most industrious people that ever walked this Earth, we will find a way.
Anything from ocean steading, to space exploration or recovery via high TFR sub groups in a century or two, we *will* win.
I’m confident we actually will win the future, it just won’t be in our lifetimes, or even that of our grandkids, after a century or two of decline we might yet recover, we simply just have a more resilient collection of high TFR subgroups compared to the Asians, Latinos etc.
Even within Latin America, the Mennonite (German) minority in places like Bolivia and Paraguay are doubling every ~20 years, and could be plurality in rural eastern Bolivia in my lifetime.
The Amish could number 4 million by late century, doubling every 20 years also, if they keep it up, there’s no telling how much they’ll grow in a couple centuries.
Never. Ever. Blackpill.
⛰️ Is Mount Remarkable LGA truely Remarkable?
Population: ~3k
It went from a sub-replacement TFR of 1.73 in 2015 to a huge 3.13 TFR in 2025.
Its population is over 93% White.
What happened there to make such a fertility recovery over a decade?
Well, it’s a case of there being a tiny denominator of woman of child bearing age, only 3.5% of the population is woman aged 25-34.
The 0-14 year old population is still below the national average, at 14% (compared to Australia’s 17.7%), but growing.
The trend is still nominal growth in the youth cohorts due to the higher TFR, but the bulge of elderly people passing away keeps the population roughly stable.
Once the bulge of boomers does pass away, the population will probably drop, stabilise, and then start to grow *very slowly* again, the growth will probably not be fast despite the high TFR due to outmigration of 18-24 year olds, however it won’t be zero.
White people, despite our low fertility, actually got a ‘soft landing’, our fertility declined a lot, but over a prolonged period, centuries.
Other groups have collapsed from above 4-5 to sub replacement in a much more condensed period (a couple decades).
Our demographic crisis will seem like child’s play compared to places like Mexico, who not only have dropped very fast and hard, but they can’t even convince their own people to stay, many of these countries are going to crash faster and harder than us.
Even African fertility is fast collapsing and constantly being revised down, just off a much higher base.
The constant revisions have dropped projections from 4.5bn late century to 3.8bn and further revisions downwards are likely.
That’s 700 million less Africans coming than we previously expected.
🇦🇶Svolvær retweeted
[Repost: fixing an error with the key generated by a plugin.]
My new South Australian TFR by LGA map, with the latest 2025 data released by @ABSStats today.
Notes:
Unlike other states, some of the regions with the highest Aboriginal population share are amongst the lowest fertility, bucking the national trend, with many Aboriginal dominated LGAs posting a 1.2 TFR.
Like Victoria, the most Asian dominated areas in Adelaide tend to have the lowest fertility.
Like New South Wales, South Australia has a belt of super majority White regions with an above replacement TFR, something Victoria and Queensland both seem to lack at the same relative scale.
[Repost: fixing an error with the key generated by a plugin.]
My new South Australian TFR by LGA map, with the latest 2025 data released by @ABSStats today.
Notes:
Unlike other states, some of the regions with the highest Aboriginal population share are amongst the lowest fertility, bucking the national trend, with many Aboriginal dominated LGAs posting a 1.2 TFR.
Like Victoria, the most Asian dominated areas in Adelaide tend to have the lowest fertility.
Like New South Wales, South Australia has a belt of super majority White regions with an above replacement TFR, something Victoria and Queensland both seem to lack at the same relative scale.
The colour code on this one is a bit cooked for some reason so the regions from 2.4 up are barely a different colour, apologies for that.
🇦🇶Svolvær retweeted
While Labor is renegotiating its UK free trade agreement to cut British backpackers, it is actively working to EXPAND its free trade agreement with India, including on migration.
The Indian government has cited work on a more 'ambitious' deal covering mobility (immigration).
Same for New Zealand, they *can* and *must* renegotiate a better FTR with india or scrap it entirely.
🇦🇶Svolvær retweeted
This is why I’m looking deeply into these two groups at the moment, but I’ve yet to fully assess the data to defend my claim, when I do, you’ll hear about it:
1. Above replacement TFR regional White Australians:
I’m still analysing a fuckload of data at the moment but early assessments lead me to believe there is a population of about 1.5 million regional White Aussies with a TFR of roughly 2.3 to 2.5.
2. Above replacement TFR White American weekly church goers:
Approx 40 million people with a TFR of ~2.25, they are THE *Single* greatest hope of the entire western world right now.
Analysing these groups and finding working policies to export their lifestyle and TFR to other Whites is my *one* goal on this platform now. That’s why I am here, it’s why I have pivoted into posting these demographic maps and info, to gain support and share these ideas.
Laestadians are 2% of the population in Finland 🇫🇮, and 4.5% of live births.
By 2050 they could be as many as ~12.5% of Births in Finland.
This is part of why having a high TFR Subgroup is so important and why I am slowly trying to work out how large that base might be in Australia and working on policy to support them.
