♦ F E R N A N D E S ♦ Graduated with honors, 2 degrees in Economics & Business Admin (Finance) | Sharing my thoughts 🧠 if you don’t like them, I don’t care
Joined November 2021
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Shelter rose 0.3% in October and accounted for over 30% of the monthly CPI increase.
That's a share of one month's increase, not shelter's weight in the basket.
One category can drive over 30% of a month's increase without being a third of anyone's cost of living 🧠🧠
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October CPI, out this morning US time:
+0.4% month-over-month, core +0.3%. Consensus was +0.24% (FactSet) / +0.29% (Bloomberg) on the headline, +0.2% core.
A hot print on both lines.
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Missing from the report: the 12-month rates for the headline and core indexes - the release's own table shows a dash.
October 2025 prices for those series were never collected during the shutdown, so there's no base to compare against.
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84% of S&P 500 companies reporting so far beat EPS estimates - above the 10-year average of 77% - but the aggregate beat is 2.7% (FactSet, as of Nov 6; the season isn't finished).
A high beat rate alone says little. The size of the beat is the other half of the story 🧠🧠
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The image everyone knows for 'the stock market.'
In July 2023, about 45% of US stock volume traded off-exchange entirely (Cboe) - outside venues like this one.
The famous picture captures only part of how trading actually works.
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In 2018 GE left the Dow, and the last of the original 12 went with it - every plank of the 1896 ship replaced.
'The market' is a list that keeps swapping its parts.
A single stock is a different story.
Worth asking which one people mean when they quote it 🧠
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Friday, 8:30 AM: October jobs print at +165,000 vs a Dow Jones consensus of +59,000 (CNBC) - nearly 3x the estimate.
The S&P 500 closed up 0.3%.
Tempting conclusion: "the market shrugged."
That conclusion is worth questioning.
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Two problems with the shrug story.
First, consensus is a survey of economists - not what traders actually priced in.
The real gap could be smaller or larger.
Second, a daily close bundles a full day of news and trading.
It cannot isolate the jobs report.
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Bitcoin is ~41% below its Oct 2025 peak.
Previous cycle falls: -94% (2011), -86% (2015), -84% (2018), -77.5% (2022) - each shallower than the last.
Two honest readings: a maturing asset's mildest winter so far, or a decline that isn't finished.
Same chart, opposite conclusions 🧠🧠
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All ten of the Dow's biggest one-day percentage gains came during crash eras - 1929-33, 1987, 2008, 2020.
Not one in a calm bull market!
A giant green day isn't the all-clear.
It's what a scared market looks like when it moves up instead of down 🧠🧠
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Friday closes:
gold futures +4.5% on the week 📈
bitcoin -1.9% 📉
A rough week for the 'digital gold' label - at least for these seven days 🧠
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The Nikkei closed Friday at 57,435 - 20.6% below its June 25 record (72,366).
Getting back to that record now takes +26.0%, not +20.6%.
The percentage base moved: -20.6% of 72,366 is a bigger number than +20.6% of 57,435 🧠
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Friday's halt in Seoul was the KOSPI's 11th circuit breaker so far in 2026 - only the 17th ever.
Per eToday's count of exchange data, eight of the eleven came on semiconductor drops.
Two fired in March, seven across June-July.
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Worth having on the calendar for next week:
October CPI - Tuesday, Nov 10, 8:30am ET
October PPI - Friday, Nov 13, 8:30am ET
Plus 13 more S&P 500 companies reporting Q3.
Two inflation prints, one week. 🧠🧠
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Five weeks of compression in one number:
S&P 500 forward P/E on Sept 30: 19.0
On Friday: 17.7
Both readings sit below the 5-year average (19.8) and the 10-year (19.1). (FactSet)
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Prices did part of it: the index fell 3.6% in that window.
The denominator did the rest: implied forward earnings estimates rose about 3.5% over the same five weeks.
Falling price, rising E - the multiple tightened from both sides.
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