Partnerships and Developer Relations @magicmarkets Building a clearing house for sports, with zero commission and deep liquidity.
Joined March 2025
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We've built some cool developer tools for MagicMarkets - would love any early feedback.
DMs are open.
github.com/magicmarkets/magi…
88% of the time somebody opens Thumper on Polymarket, they get a better price.
Try it today.
thumper isnt just nba and epl. it also runs on polymarket ufc, boxing, tennis, cricket and rugby pages
ufc 333 this weekend. open a fight and it shows which venue has the better price, with polymarket's fee added back in
tell me what breaks 🙏
magicmarkets.com/thumper?utm…
Notional vs taker volume across prediction markets, last 30 days, from DefiLlama.
Notional = contracts × $1 payout, which is what most venues headline.
Taker = what the taker actually paid, counted once per trade.
Kalshi's notional is 5x its taker volume. Polymarket US is 3.8x. Most others are about 2x. The cheaper the contracts, the bigger the gap. When you see a volume number, ask which one it is.
1/ Kalshi's volume is notional, not taker. This number counts every contract at $1, which isn't what traders actually paid. If you take every fill from 8 hours today: $1.25B in reported volume, $272.6M in actual premium. That's about 22% to convert from notional to the actual volume.
2/ NFL is closer. The top 25 game markets from Oct 8–12 show $492.7M volume and $220.6M paid, about 45%. The BAL side of BAL@ATL alone: $51.8M reported, $21.3M paid.
If you study prediction markets, taker volume is the real number.
Buy a contract at 5¢ and it gets counted as $1 of notional volume. Face value is 20x what was actually paid.
Taker volume is what the person crossing the spread paid - the actual amount traded.
If someone shows you notional volume, always ask for the taker number. I'm going to keep asking until everyone reports it.
Beni (@beniduboss) was right. Kalshi is faking volume, and so is everyone else.
Just not the way people thought. The headline number they commonly use is notional volume.
It counts every contract at face value, no matter what anyone actually paid for it. It's the industry standard and it's misleading.
The industry needs to change and I will die on this hill.
Nice that this says notional so clearly.
Over the last 7 to 30 days Kalshi's actual cash traded has been around 18-22% of notional, so if that holds it's more like $65-75B of taker volume this year, which is still a huge number but a pretty different one to the headline.
This looks simple, but it's not.
Prediction markets often just show sports prices without showing the fees. These fees aren't clear and they slowly eat away at any edge you have over a number of trades.
And because they're not shown in the price you're quoted, you don't know what the actual price is that you're paying on each venue. We built Thumper to try to fix this for traders. Line shop without switching tabs.
Take a look, try it out and let us know any feedback or features you would like.
xitter.cf/tebrabbit/status/21101…
9/ chrome: chromewebstore.google.com/de… firefox: addons.mozilla.org/firefox/a… more: magicmarkets.com/thumper
tell me what breaks 🙏
MagicMaker retweeted
Trading volumes in the Polymarket Builders Program over the past week:
1. @betmoardotfun: $26.69M
2. traderline.com: $15.87M
3. @Gate: $13.62M
4. @magicmarkets: $8.37M
5. @SpreadCore_xyz: $8.22M
6. @SharkbettingCom: $7.51M
7. @polymtrade: $6.70M
8. @jup_predict: $3.53M
9. @pots_market: $3.46M
10. NoArb: $3.25M
Polymarket recorded approximately $530M in dollar trading volume over October 3-9. Activity was likely supported by the aftermath of Brazil’s first-round election, positioning ahead of the Fed’s October rate decision, and uncertainty around the US-Iran ceasefire - giving traders several major political and macro events to price in
Notional or taker volume?
💀
ARK sizes the medium-term prediction market opportunity at $1 trillion to $5 trillion in annual volume. Kalshi handles over 90% of US activity today, and $ARKK, $ARKW, and $ARKF now hold direct exposure.
Learn more at ark-funds.com/our-etfs
Wait, @magicmarkets we're going to need some footage here.
