
Called Bitcoin’s Oct ’22 Bottom, Jul ’23 $125k Top & Oct ’25 Bear, Aug '26 Bottom - Before They Happened | Institutional Research | Millennium | JPM | MS | GS
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Zcash is up 34% since we flagged it. Did you catch it?
Zcash just broke out to a new high. If you weren't positioned, here's the uncomfortable part: our model flagged this setup weeks ago, and it's already up 34% since. In our altcoin model portfolio, available to Trading Signals subscribers, Zcash has returned +162%.
This isn't a "what happens next" story. It's a "this already happened, and paid subscribers had it" story.
On August 21st (signal.10xresearch.com/p/zca…), our quant models triggered a signal on ZEC-USD at $720.03, scoring it 7.2 out of 10, one of our higher-conviction reads. The model didn't just say "bullish." It quantified it.
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ZEC-USD: New Medium-Term High — Triggered Aug 21, 2026
Historical median return after similar setups: +19.5% over 1 month (10 prior occasions, 80% hit ratio)
Entry: 720.03 | Target: 860 (+19.5%) | Stop-loss: 667 (-7.3%)
Recommended position size: 13.6% of a $100k portfolio
That signal has already outperformed its own target, ZEC is up over 34% since it triggered. Subscribers who acted on it were in before the breakout, not chasing it after.
And this isn't a one-off. When Bitcoin ripped to $69,000, our models gave subscribers a clear read while everyone else was second-guessing whether to fade it. Same process. Same edge.
Here's the thing about signals: the value isn't in reading about the move after it happens. It's in having the call before it does. Free content tells you what happened. Trading Signals tells you what's setting up, with the entry, the target, the stop-loss, and the position size already worked out, the moment our models trigger it.
You missed this one. The next signal is already loading.
[Upgrade to Trading Signals →] signal.10xresearch.com/upgra…
Subscribers also get full access to 10x Market Updates and the rest of our Trading Signals suite, including our weekly options report, weekly altcoin chart book, and the trading dashboard with our model portfolios.
Past performance and back-tested returns do not guarantee future results.
See Disclaimer in the report
@Zcash
Bitcoin at $80,000: The Three Charts That Matter Most
Trading comes down to following a disciplined process, making data-driven decisions, and acting on them with confidence. Sometimes that means going against the crowd. Sometimes it means getting ahead of it.
Bitcoin is trading around the psychologically important $80,000 level, but is this because of thin weekend volume and a false breakdown? What factors should traders focus on?
Traders shouldn't watch only price. Below, we explain what our market structure and factor analysis are signaling and which levels matter for our near-term and medium-term view.
So far, Bitcoin has moved in line with the view we laid out over the past week or two. Three charts matter most right now, and studying them closely should give traders the confidence to stick with the process.
Full report: update.10xresearch.com/p/bit…
One of the Few Bitcoin Decisions That Matter This Year
Many Bitcoin investors swear by buy-and-hold, and it has paid off handsomely for anyone who bought a decade ago.
But over the same period, another strategy has delivered better returns, and the gap has widened sharply over the last five years. It requires a slightly more active approach, but only three to four decisions a year.
Today calls for one of them, and it aligns with broader crypto market sentiment. Below, we show how this strategy has outperformed buy-and-hold over the past ten years and why now is the time to act on its latest signal.
Full report: whatmatters.10xresearch.com/…
Bitcoin (LHS) vs. Coinbase BTC Premium (RHS) - risk or opportunity?
Altcoins Lose Their Footing as Money Rotates Back Into Bitcoin
The altcoin rally that looked so convincing a few weeks ago is losing support. Across the 50+ coins we track, only two are trading above both its short-term and medium-term trend lines. Most of the sharp moves we saw this week were short squeezes, not new buying, and they faded within a day.
That does not mean every altcoin is a sell. Some tokens have genuine fundamental support, while the rest of the market slips.
In this week’s report, we show which signals in our rotation model have turned, how far market breadth has fallen, and what we now score the odds of an altcoin season.
We also review the catalysts behind each coin and flag where we think the risk-reward has improved and where it hasn't.
Full report: signal.10xresearch.com/p/alt…
What Really Moved Crypto Since June: Part 3 – Pump. fun, Ethena, Jupiter, Monero, Pyth and Stacks
In the final part of this series, we look at six tokens that have all outperformed Bitcoin since late May, with gains ranging from 39% for Monero to 155% for Pump. fun, while Bitcoin rose about 10%. Part 1 showed what drove the large caps. Part 2 showed how coin-specific stories allowed tokens such as Uniswap and Zcash to break away from the market.
This report shows the same pattern from a different angle. Pump. fun, Pyth and Ethena were rerated once a specific catalyst took place. As in the first two parts, we have lined up every weekly move with its main driver, and the charts are collected in a chart book that readers can print and keep as a reference.
This third part also includes an eight point overview about the lessons from all three reports.
As with Part 1 and Par 2, we have compiled the charts into a PDF chart book that readers can keep for reference or print.
update.10xresearch.com/p/wha…
From Hashrate to High Yield: Bitcoin Miners Now Trade on CoreWeave’s Credit
Over the past 12 months, Oracle and CoreWeave shares have each fallen about 55%. Over the same period, Oracle’s 2032 bonds lost 14 points and CoreWeave’s 2031 bonds lost 21. In other words, the bonds lost points while the stocks lost half their value.
The latest selloff in CoreWeave’s bonds was fast and severe, but this is not a CoreWeave default story. It is about funding for AI infrastructure more broadly, and Oracle, an investment-grade company, has lost as much equity value as CoreWeave
Since September 22, Bitcoin is down 5%. The Bitcoin miners we track are down 28% to 53%. Even MARA, the stock still most closely tied to Bitcoin, has fallen 45%. The miners that moved into AI hosting have quietly changed what drives their shares. Their correlation with Bitcoin has dropped to 0.29 since July. The selloff was not about Bitcoin or Treasury yields.
In this report, we explain when and why the link to Bitcoin broke, what miners trade on now, why funding mattered more than tenant quality, and the credit level that will tell investors when it is safe to buy again.
Because the drivers of miner share prices have changed, we also outline when investors can start buying again, which events and credit levels would trigger it, and what to monitor in the meantime.
Full report, link in the bio or in the comments section.
From Hashrate to High Yield: Bitcoin Miners Now Trade on CoreWeave’s Credit update.10xresearch.com/p/fro…
10x Weekly Crypto Kickoff – Altcoin Rally Fades. How should traders be positioned now?
Last week’s sell-off hit every sector, but altcoins took most of the damage. The 141 coins we track fell 14% on average, while Bitcoin lost only 3%. Volumes are lower, stablecoin supply is shrinking, and ETF flows have turned negative.
Options markets, however, price in very little stress, and speculative positioning in CME futures is near its highs. This report looks at what the flow, positioning, and options data mean for the week ahead, which Bitcoin levels matter, and why we continue to adjust our positioning.
How should traders be positioned around Ethereum and which technical level matters for Bitcoin? Investors who still hold altcoins should watch several indicators, which we explain below.
Our Sunday/Monday kickoff covers the data behind this week’s market structure, flows, and positioning. It also covers the macro backdrop and the technical levels that could change the picture over the coming days.
The report is built on data and our interpretation, and it is meant to prepare you for the week ahead.
Read the full report, including our positioning, views and What Portfolio Managers Should Do With This Report (see link in bio or in the comments section).
10x Weekly Crypto Kickoff – Altcoin Rally Fades. How should traders be positioned now? update.10xresearch.com/p/10x…
CoreWeave’s $25bn Build-Out Is Now the Bitcoin Miners’ Problem
Since September 22, Bitcoin is down 5%, while the miners we track are down 28% to 53%. The cause is CoreWeave. Its bonds yield over 15%, its five-year CDS hit a record 1,194bp on October 15, and it planned $21–25bn of capex for the second half of 2026 after free cash flow of negative $5.7bn in Q2.
The miners copied CoreWeave’s model of long leases to AI labs financed with debt, and they now trade on its credit, not on Bitcoin. The stress shows up in CoreWeave’s bonds, but the miners’ shareholders have taken the losses.
This report sets out how the repricing happened so quickly: CoreWeave’s balance sheet, its customer and contract risks, the September convertible that marked the top of the rebound, and why funding the miners’ next megawatts now costs much more.
We close with what portfolio managers should watch before trying to call a bottom.
See link in bio/comments section for full report.
CoreWeave’s $25bn Build-Out Is Now the Bitcoin Miners’ Problem. update.10xresearch.com/p/cor…
The Clearing House picked Quant to connect tokenized deposits, and QNT went up 5x in six weeks.
One Liners: Crypto Market Drivers — 6 Charts That Matter Now
Bitcoin edged up 0.7% on the week, but most of the crypto complex told a different story. Mining stocks fell between 8% and 26% as stress in AI credit markets, @CoreWeave bond yields near 15% and a 10-year Treasury yield at 5.33% hit every company that needs debt to build data centers.
Platforms with lighter balance sheets held up much better, with Circle up 7.6% and @coinbase up 6.9%. @MicroStrategy failed @MSCI_Inc new screen for non-operating companies, but the index rules give it more time than the headlines suggest.
In altcoins, breadth and correlation still support an altcoin season, yet momentum is fading and the gains are concentrated in a few sectors, led by PYTH, NEAR, OP and ARB.
In today's report, we go through more than 50 stocks and tokens and explain what drove each move and what we are watching next.
One-liners across all four coverage areas: Treasury Companies, Diversified Crypto, Bitcoin Mining, and Macro & Crypto FX.
Full report: see the link in bio or on our website.
Supply Cuts Beat Headlines: What Is Driving the Altcoin Winners
Our altcoin model portfolio is up 58% since April. This week we are replacing two positions and adjusting the weights, starting with our largest holding, PYTH, after its strong run.
Our altcoin season index, Bitcoin–Altcoin Rotation Model, and correlation data all show the altcoin rally is losing breadth, supporting some changes.
We are staying overweight the core holdings where fundamentals and catalysts are confirmed by price action. With the gap between winners and losers widening, token selection matters more than broad market exposure.
In our latest "trading signals" report, we cover the latest catalysts and chart setups for more than 50 top coins, explain what matters most for portfolio managers, and lay out the changes we are making as a practical roadmap for subscribers.
See the link in bio/on the website for more details.
Supply Cuts Beat Headlines: What Is Driving the Altcoin Winners signal.10xresearch.com/p/sup…
Bonds Fade the CPI Print: Why We’re Holding Bitcoin While the AI Trade Unwinds
The US 10-year yield has climbed from 3.95% last October to a 5.31% high on October 5, well above its 50-day average. September CPI came in at 3.7% against 3.6% expected, and core CPI rose 0.3% on the month against 0.2% expected. Tech was the worst S&P 500 sector on the day as the AI trade kept unwinding.
Bonds faded the hotter CPI print, posting an outside reversal day that suggests yields may have peaked.
Bitcoin has held up, but the AI trade is still unwinding: the Korean buybacks have ended, Anthropic’s IPO odds have dropped, and China’s memory push is back in focus.
Below, we explain what this means for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the miners, and the level that would make us exit.
Full report: update.10xresearch.com/p/bon…
Bonds Fade the CPI Print: Why We’re Holding Bitcoin While the AI Trade Unwinds
US headline CPI rose to 2.6% YoY, above the 2.5% consensus and up from the recent low of 2.4%. Oil prices tend to feed into CPI with a roughly two-month lag, so the next print should move higher again, likely into the 2.7–2.9% range. That should mark the intermediate peak unless oil resumes its rally. For now, crude appears to be settling between $90 and $100, which corresponds to roughly 2.8–2.9% headline inflation.
This is a back-of-the-envelope estimate, but the trends direction matters more to us than the exact number.Producer prices react to oil more quickly than consumer prices. Oil bottomed in July, and the August PPI, released in September, jumped from 4.7% to 5.4%.
Consensus expects today’s September release (October 15) to ease slightly to 5.3%. If oil remains the dominant driver, however, PPI could rise toward 6.0%, which would surprise markets again. Higher oil prices and a stronger US dollar have been the main macro risks to our modestly bullish view.
Bonds faded the hotter CPI print, posting an outside reversal day that suggests yields may have peaked. Bitcoin has held up, but the AI trade is still unwinding: the Korean buybacks have ended, Anthropic’s IPO odds have dropped, and China’s memory push is back in focus.
In today's report, we explain what this means for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the miners, and the level that would make us exit. This is a must-read report for everybody interested in stocks, bonds, inflation, or Bitcoin.
We also explain how we would hedge our current Bitcoin position: update.10xresearch.com/p/bon…
Crypto Factors: The One Factor That Worked While Bitcoin Fell 27.6%
Bitcoin is down 27.6% over the past year, and Ethereum has lost 39%. An equal-weight basket of 139 coins is down 34%, with a 56% drawdown. Over the same period, a market-neutral long/short portfolio built on a single factor returned +27.1%, with a fraction of the market’s volatility and almost no exposure to Bitcoin.
Four of the six systematic factors we track generated positive risk-adjusted returns, but the factor landscape has shifted beneath the headline numbers.
One version of momentum is working while another is failing, two factors that look different are holding nearly identical books, and the most useful hedge in the set is the one with the weakest recent returns.
We break down which factors deserve capital, how to combine them, and which coins sit on each side of the trade today.
Full report with all the details, which factors are outperforming Bitcoin, even in a down market: strategy.10xresearch.com/p/c…
Bitcoin has made early holders rich. Since 2015, its price has risen from $238 to around $83,000, and that track record still shapes how most investors approach it. They buy, hold, and assume the next decade will look like the last.
We tested that assumption against every systematic strategy we run over both a eleven-year and a five-year window, and the results weren't what most investors would expect. The forces behind Bitcoin’s past returns have changed, and so has the way the market trades.
-->> see our earlier post for more details..
Only One Bitcoin Strategy Beat Buy-and-Hold Over 11 Years
Bitcoin has made early holders rich. Since 2015, its price has risen from $238 to around $83,000, and that track record still shapes how most investors approach it. They buy, hold, and assume the next decade will look like the last.
We tested that assumption against every systematic strategy we run over both a eleven-year and a five-year window, and the results weren't what most investors would expect. The forces behind Bitcoin’s past returns have changed, and so has the way the market trades.
This matters for anyone who owns Bitcoin today, whether through ETFs, on a balance sheet, or in a trading book, because the approach that worked best in the past may not work from here.
In this report, we show which strategies still hold up, which have stopped working, and what that means for how investors should manage Bitcoin exposure from here.
Full report: update.10xresearch.com/p/onl…
Bitcoin is down 27.6% over the past year, and Ethereum has lost 39%. An equal-weight basket of 139 coins is down 34%, with a 56% drawdown.
Over the same period, a market-neutral long/short portfolio built on a single factor returned +27.1%, with a fraction of the market’s volatility and almost no exposure to Bitcoin. Four of the six systematic factors we track generated positive risk-adjusted returns, but the factor landscape has shifted beneath the headline numbers.
One version of momentum is working while another is failing, two factors that look different are holding nearly identical books, and the most useful hedge in the set is the one with the weakest recent returns.
-> see our earlier post for more details...
Altcoin Season Is Stretched, and Two Coins Are Doing All the Work
The index reads 61, up from 24 in late August and 21 points above its 10-week moving average. Only about 6% of weekly readings over the past three years have been higher.
This is our weekly quant Market Structure report. We start top-down to judge whether we are in an altcoin season, then work through the sectors and pick out opportunities in individual coins.
Altcoin season is still on. Our altcoin season index stands at 60.7%, well above the 30% line that marks the start of a season, and the median correlation of altcoins to Bitcoin has fallen to 0.50. However, the rally is getting stretched. The share of coins above their 50-day moving average has dropped from above 75% to 65.2%, and profit-taking is spreading.
Only two sectors are still holding up over both the past month and the past week. In each of them, one coin has more than tripled in a month on news that is either unconfirmed or of doubtful value to the token.
Below, we show which sectors are losing money and which coin we prefer of the two. We also explain why we would not add to altcoins at this point and which signal would change our view.
We show which sectors are strongest and which are weakest, and where we would focus while altcoin season lasts.
Full report with all the relevant charts + data and which sectors we would focus on: signal.10xresearch.com/p/alt…




