cocobolo desk trader. Uranus maximalist. planetary economy expert
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Joined October 2021
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gp 🌎 retweeted
hearing some chatter that anthropic is now lowering down to $1tn to get this IPO done. let me explain why this doesnt matter and its actually all over-
the entire existence of this company is based on a funding model that inherently has extreme asset liability mismatch. what that means is that just like the hyperscalers are diluting their equity fund capex, there is an expectation that anthropic will also have to do the same. ie it needs strong equity to perpetuate the scheme
but if you IPO at the wrong price (and dont get a pop which increasingly appears they wont be; spacex already below) then youre now in the death spiral that crypto investors should be very familiar with: its called the reflexivity trap of the confidence game. its the "ill bid FTT at $22 all day" or the "steady lads UST is $1" game, with all its lucid horrors. and here is the key insight- the confidence game exists at the service of the creditors. if there is no credit, there is simply no equity. and there is no credit, if there is no collateral
if the credit rating agencies are not going to give IG at $2tn, they are certaintly not going a better HY rating at $1tn. and there is no world in which anthropic can exist without credit because ~$1tn of commit, much of which is noncancellable, is a straight up negative equity pledge
yet there were two scenarios in which i was willing to concede anthropic could IPO: first 1) the improbable but possible was if the hyperscalers/chips oligopoly came to rescue and plug the hole, given their incestuous nature of revenue bookings and paper gains/losses at scale. but it is clear now that the market has spoken this will lead to a mutual death, and should not be attempted. or perversely even better, they are actually better off letting anthropic go to zero so they can acquire the pieces on the cheap which is the best nash equilibrium outcome, not just for the dominant player but for society at large. second 2) the us government can nationalize the company and collude with other sovereigns (like UAE, Saudi, Japan who are basically already the checks) to force its funding as a collective bargain. this gives you trillions, which is actually the most effective backstop to restore market confidence. the first edge case does require an IPO, but the second edge case here for which i believe there is still a good chance that this is the ultimate end game- will require a failed IPO to recapitalize at a normalized price for the consortium (and dont forget that openai front ran this investor group in anticipation of this dynamic to play out as a private co last month)
i believe the market is crapping out today because the market is recognizing it will not IPO. and actually, as ive said before, this is a very good thing. i might even imagine that the market could quickly rebound on the news of its IPO being delayed because it allows #2) to play out, as not only a national, but an international bailout. the US is more likely to tolerate, even relish, the taxes of foreginers to fund our domestic companies. that is the only end game that really matters, and the end game i am going to be excited to see
we'll see if this newly revamped washington can figure it out
gp 🌎 retweeted
The best analogy for building wealth is rock climbing. Once you reach a new ledge, you secure it. That becomes your new foundation, and protecting it becomes part of an evolving strategy.
Each new level of wealth should trigger a reset in your mindset and a broadening of strategy. You now have more to protect and also more to work with, and the risks you take should reflect that.
That doesn’t mean you can’t be ambitious. Take big bets when the opportunity deserves it. But big bets can’t be born from what everyone else is doing and every theme has a due date. So structure those bets so that if the next climb fails, you fall back to the ledge you’ve already secured.
The entire climb can never be on the line.
I’m sure today many many people fell back many ledges, and many died falling to the ground.
gp 🌎 retweeted
What just happened?
The Nasdaq 100 just posted its largest daily drop since the 2020 Pandemic, with the S&P 500 erasing -$3 trillion today.
Just 24 hours ago, the Dow surged +1,600 points after the Democrats "swept" the Midterms.
So, what changed? Let us explain.
(a thread)
gp 🌎 retweeted
$GLXY CEO after pushing back on Texas political uncertainty:
"I see a massive disconnect between where Galaxy trades and what I believe this company is worth.
That’s why I’m buying more stock, starting today."
Good vote of confidence to see colo executives calling out fundamental disconnects amid sector liquidations.
Then putting their own capital behind their statement.
The blue wave has weighed on companies like ours. I get it. But let’s not confuse politics with long-term fundamentals.
Finance is moving onchain and demand for AI is exploding. These are generational shifts that will play out across administrations and market cycles.
We’ve spent years building Galaxy to win in both. That includes Texas, where we delivered Helios Phase I on schedule and 800 MW is already leased under long-term contract. We’ve worked with legislators and local communities there for years, and we’ll keep doing that with the new administration. We share the same goals: reliable power, protected water and strong communities.
I see a massive disconnect between where $GLXY trades and what I believe this company is worth. That’s why I’m buying more stock, starting today.
I’m betting on us, big time.
gp 🌎 retweeted
The blue wave has weighed on companies like ours. I get it. But let’s not confuse politics with long-term fundamentals.
Finance is moving onchain and demand for AI is exploding. These are generational shifts that will play out across administrations and market cycles.
We’ve spent years building Galaxy to win in both. That includes Texas, where we delivered Helios Phase I on schedule and 800 MW is already leased under long-term contract. We’ve worked with legislators and local communities there for years, and we’ll keep doing that with the new administration. We share the same goals: reliable power, protected water and strong communities.
I see a massive disconnect between where $GLXY trades and what I believe this company is worth. That’s why I’m buying more stock, starting today.
I’m betting on us, big time.
gp 🌎 retweeted
I'm changing my outlook on semis. I think this total capitulation means we are probably very close to the bottom. Today or tomorrow may very well be the bottom.
There is the possibility that the market is going to price in a Trump final military action on Iran this weekend after the midterms. Possibility of some margin-related activity as well, towards the end of the week. And so it's possible the time to buy is next Monday. I'll watch the price and think about it. But just some thoughts.
The market most of the time has been overcorrection or overexuberance.
My conception of the market has always been to identify these periods of over-reaction.
No party wants to be responsible for people's 401k taking a hit. And so if the democrat's messaging on AI causes a major turn in the sp500, they'll temper that language and reverse course. AI related stocks are ball park 40% of the SP500, a large sell off is going to hit the sp500, no matter the buying on the other side.
And so it's likely that very quickly the democrats are going to sound more moderate on AI, and the market will rebound.
The AI trade was expensive, now it's cheap. There are forced selling on these names. Good quality companies will still outperform next year.
gp 🌎 retweeted
Venezuela debería atraer data centers, con la condición de que inviertan en ampliar y mejorar el sistema eléctrico.
Podrían ser un gran incentivo para resolver el problema. Y espacio y agua hay.
gp 🌎 retweeted
SOX is a buy here. Silicon Valley and the big tech oligarchs will become the largest contributors to the Dems by end of ‘28. In return, the data centers will be built. Money talks.
gp 🌎 retweeted
True
After DOGE, Elon came to a conclusion most people missed.
He tried to reform the state from the inside. He failed. And he said it plainly: the government can't fix its own deficit. Nobody in power actually wants to cut. The machine protects itself.
So he drew the only logical conclusion. If the state can't be reformed, there are only two ways this ends.
Either global bankruptcy. Debt keeps compounding, interest payments eat the budget, and the system collapses under its own weight.
Or robots. AI and robotics grow the economy so fast that the debt becomes manageable, and abundance makes the old fights over scarcity irrelevant.
Here's the part almost nobody sees.
For two centuries, capitalism has had a marketing problem. Its gains are real but slow and invisible. 2% growth a year doesn't feel like anything. Your life gets better over 30 years and you never connect it to the system that did it. Meanwhile, the left's promises feel immediate and concrete: a check, a subsidy, a benefit. That's why the left wins on promises even when it can't deliver them. Capitalism produces the wealth, socialism takes the credit.
Robots break that asymmetry.
When productivity doubles in a few years instead of a few decades, people will see it. Things get cheaper, services get better, opportunities appear, in real time. For the first time in history, people will connect capitalism and their rising standard of living directly, almost instantly. The causal chain becomes visible.
And that changes everything politically.
So there are two scenarios.
Scenario one: we stay in the current inertia. No breakthrough, or a breakthrough we regulate to death. The debt wins. Living standards stagnate, then fall. A frustrated electorate turns to whoever promises the most, and that pushes toward a hard collectivist left. But collectivism fails, as it always does. And when it fails, the most organized, most disciplined collectivist force left standing isn't the old left. It's radical Islamism. Bankruptcy, then communism, then something worse.
Scenario two: robots win. Abundance arrives, and it arrives visibly. The link between free enterprise and prosperity becomes obvious to everyone. And this is the key point: it becomes obvious to everyone, including the minorities the left was counting on. Because their long-term incentive is the same as everyone else's. A kid in the suburbs gains infinitely more from a booming, abundant West than from a bankrupt state handing out promises it can't keep. Abundance is the most powerful integration machine ever built.
That's the Western renaissance.
The West doesn't need to win the culture war by arguing. It needs to win it by delivering. And for the first time, it has the technology to deliver fast enough for people to notice.
The race isn't left vs right anymore. It's robots vs bankruptcy.
