Founder & President, Lichtman Polling Institute. Dean of American Polling. My methodology speaks for itself. Fiercely nonpartisan. DM for media inquiries.
A battleground state
Joined August 2024
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UPDATE: My sources indicate that the list of candidates for Trump’s next Press Secretary continues to expand. I am now tracking eight serious contenders, with additional names under review. I would caution against drawing conclusions about any one candidate at this stage.
I know some people are surprised by Lula’s victory, but this is precisely why you visit diners instead of sitting behind a computer refreshing spreadsheets all day.
The warning signs were there for anyone willing to speak to ordinary Brazilians over breakfast.
I’ve seen enough: I am officially calling the Brazilian presidential election for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
I ask that all major news networks update their electoral maps accordingly.
- Dr. Nate G. Lichtman
Taking a stab in the dark, but does anyone have a county-stratified, precinct-normalized panel of heteroskedastic voter-transition coefficients, disaggregated by 2022 ballot-return latency, household appliance ownership, and residual partisan elasticity?
Preferably in Stata format. Excel submissions will be discarded.
-Dean Lichtman
A Republican candidate produces a vile attack ad, a Republican President endorses it, and a Republican Vice President defends it.
And somehow Joe Manchin concludes that BOTH parties are the problem.
His commitment to false equivalence is almost as impressive as his inability to identify the party responsible.
The disgusting attack ad in the Ohio governor’s race points to a much bigger problem in politics. The political parties don't care about the character or integrity of their candidates anymore. They only care about power — no matter what it takes. We need common sense leadership, and once again, the parties are failing to meet the moment.
I find it baffling that Democratic congressional candidates aren’t inviting Joe Biden to campaign for them.
The man received 81 million votes in 2020. I would think that warrants at least a few invitations to local campaign events.
I’m frankly surprised by the movement I’m beginning to see in the polls following Trump’s Man of the Century award. Apparently voters place more weight on this distinction than I anticipated.
I encourage everyone to bookmark this extraordinary display of analytical illiteracy and consult me when @ClayTravis is proven spectacularly wrong.
In my 75 years of studying elections, I have encountered many intellectually limited commentators. Few have combined such modest abilities with such magnificent self-assurance.
Clay is, in this respect, a generational talent.
EXCLUSIVE: Following her successful intervention in Ukraine, Melania Trump has reportedly requested comprehensive briefings on Kashmir, Taiwan, Sudan, and the Korean Peninsula.
Sources caution she may not have time to resolve all four this month.
Melania Trump valiantly secures cease-fire in Ukrainian city on brink of humanitarian catastrophe trib.al/MNRpm26
Yes, Clay. Republicans are famously indifferent to politics. The Trump flags, Trump hats, Trump boat parades, Trump tattoos, Trump-themed weddings, and people who have spent the last decade organizing their entire personalities around Donald Trump are merely coincidental.
Whether it’s Jared Kushner’s billion dollar dealings with foreign governments or Hunter Biden selling a watercolor of a flower, both sides have a corruption problem. And frankly, anyone trying to suggest one is worse than the other is part of the problem.
NEW Poll: National Pollster Approval Ratings
🥇Nate Lichtman 97%
🥈Nate Cohn 7%
🥉Nate Silver 1%
Source: Wedgewood Polling
10/19–10/21 | N=1,000 | MOE ±3.1%
I can now reveal that my 2024 tweet citing Red Eagle Politics was part of a controlled experiment by the Lichtman Polling Institute.
I deliberately legitimized a fraudulent polling operation to expose the industry’s vulnerabilities.
Unlike Wedgwood, which deceived the public for fraudulent purposes, I deceived the public to demonstrate how easily the public could be deceived.
Meet an Election Expert:
Jack Francis, founder of Red Eagle Politics, has been a political force since a young age, showcasing an uncanny knack for election insights. Based on his one prediction that Trump would win in 2020, his track record in the election industry is 0/1 or 0%. He seeks to redeem himself in 2024.
As for credentials, by age 10, he was studying electoral maps and debating friends and family about key issues, surprising adults with his mature understanding of American politics. A steadfast believer in conservative values, Jack saw a major void in election coverage, which he set out to fill. He got an A in his high school civics class!
In 2019, at just 19 years old, he launched Red Eagle Politics as a one-man operation, dedicated to providing clear-eyed, pro-America election analysis that boldly rejected mainstream media’s narratives. Jack’s moment came in 2020 when, amidst waves of liberal predictions, he confidently forecast a Trump victory. With an unwavering commitment to real talk and grassroots wisdom, Jack’s Red Eagle Politics has become a beacon for those demanding unapologetically pro-Trump, America First analysis—exactly what’s missing from the mainstream.
