After almost a decade of inactivity, back here on Jan ’23. Thanks for the visit😊, feedback & follow. AFC 2.0 watch. see my substack notes too
Joined February 2009
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GCash IPO: Oversubscribed, Underbid.
A record IPO, a flat debut, then a 5% slide.
👉Four-fifths of the base offer was existing shares sold—not new capital.
👉#Benchmarkism can manufacture demand; it cannot manufacture savings.
Full analysis:
theseenandunseenbybjte.subst…
GCash parent Mynt Inc. made its Philippine Stock Exchange debut on Tuesday, bringing the country’s largest e-wallet operator to the stock market following strong demand from local and foreign investors.
READ MORE: inqnews.net/MyntPseDebut
ALT GCash parent Mynt Inc. made its Philippine Stock Exchange debut on Tuesday, bringing the country’s largest e-wallet operator to the stock market following strong demand from local and foreign investors. READ MORE: https://inqnews.net/MyntPseDebut
Asian Financial Crisis 2.0? Not a replay of 1997–98, but familiar fault lines are flashing: equity liquidation, wider credit spreads, sovereign funding pressure and currency weakness. Global tightening exposes domestic fragility—and can turn it into regional contagion
MSCI’s threat to strip Indonesian equities of emerging-market status is now also weighing on dealmaking in the corporate bond market. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Kong Kong Kubs x 2 retweeted
So Meta (Facebook) is selling $30 billion in stock to fund AI. Key takeaways for me from below are:
✅Suppliers AMD, Nvidia & Broadcom are buying $5 billion so more circle jerk financing
✅Bond markets getting expensive so expect others in this space to sell equity to finance AI
With expected IPO’s of Anthropic and OpenAI plus mag 7 going from stock buybacks to equity issuance the supply demand equation for equities is changing on the margin.
🦔Meta is selling about $35 billion of new stock to pay for AI, and it plans up to $60 billion more starting in 2027 through a new class of shares with no vote. Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom, which all sell Meta its AI hardware, said they may buy up to $5 billion of it. Meta’s stock dipped at the open and was up about 0.5% by late morning.
My Take
So Meta spent about $148.6 billion buying back its own stock from 2021 through 2025, and now it wants new buyers to hand some of that money back. That’s a rough trade for long-term shareholders. This sale comes days after Meta’s free cash flow went negative and the cost of insuring its debt hit a record, so borrowing more got expensive and shareholders pick up the bill instead. (Zuckerberg keeps about 60% of the vote either way.)
Chipmakers buying stock in their own customer is the same loop Anthropic’s filing laid out this morning, where Google, Amazon, Broadcom and AMD fund the company that buys their compute. It keeps their sales strong, and it ties all of them to AI spending holding up. More of the big spenders will sell stock over the next few quarters, since the bond market has gotten pricey for them, and plenty of those new shares will end up in ordinary people’s index funds.
Hedgie🤗
Kong Kong Kubs x 2 retweeted
This is the most important part of Anthropic's S-1 filing. It tells you that if Anthropic fails to IPO and convert the huge amount of promissory notes it issued into shares that can be dumped right away in the market for cash, its $ 100B+ cash will go poof in the blink of an eye
Kong Kong Kubs x 2 retweeted
Chinese construction suppliers are using homes received against unpaid bills to repay their own creditors, sometimes before taking legal ownership, as the property downturn strains payments across the industry, recent company disclosures show.
Unpaid bills in China’s property sector are forcing construction suppliers to act as “debt relays,” accepting unsold homes from developers and passing them down the supply chain to pay their own creditors caixinglobal.com/2026-10-26/…
June's cyclical-to-defensive reversal began even as the dollar, bond yields and oil weakened. Now the same deterioration is unfolding amid elevated yields, oil shocks and dollar pressure. June was the warning. October is exposing the transmission of years of accumulated excesses
📌 Stocks
A brighter growth outlook tends to lift cyclical stocks, while defensive stocks can help cushion portfolios when the economy slows. Right now, cyclicals relative to defensives are sliding sharply
👉 isabelnet.com/blog/
h/t @GoldmanSachs #equity #stocks $spx #spx
Surprise hike, same Philippine Treasury market message: sell
👉Bills ⬆️, 20–25Y yields jumped over 13 bps, while 2–5Y yields dipped. The pressure hasn’t disappeared—it has changed address.
The BSP swings the hammer; the bond-market mole keeps moving
🚨Three markets, ONE signal
GCash’s afternoon rescue pump kept it unchanged, consuming 29.95% of ₱4.61B MB volume. ICTSI fell 1.41%, taking 15.78%. Together, nearly 46% of turnover. Top 4 heavyweights drove 68.22% of the PSEi’s 87.45-point plunge. Thin liquidity, lopsided selling, benchmark under siege
The $USDPHP jumped 0.53% DoD from ₱63.615 to ₱63.95—its 32nd record of 2026, 7th for October, and sixth in eight days. Volume rose 28.33% to a modest $1.649B. The peso’s crawl is accelerating. Is the market overpowering the BSP’s resource-constrained defenses?
ALL-TIME LOW AGAIN
BREAKING: The Philippine peso closed on Monday, Oct. 26, at a new all-time low of P63.95:$1.
Visit gmanetwork.com/news for more updates.
Kong Kong Kubs x 2 retweeted
Every product in America can be sued if it injures or kills your child. Except one.
Aaron Siri told Joe Rogan how a 1986 law gave one industry "incredibly special immunity," right after its products caused so much harm manufacturers were going out of business.
That industry is vaccines. And once nobody could sue, almost nothing was done to make them safer. 🧵
The pandemic built the base; the #oilshock stacked on it. 9M deficit ₱1.303T tops 2021 by 14%. Subsidies and price caps don’t finance a lost income, they postpone an adjustment. Free lunch for voters now; the bill goes to the next budget, a pressured GDP and the next peso print
Gov’t budget deficit nearly unchanged in September trib.al/Rk3Rz1Q
From this post: "Relying on big names for the security of one’s portfolio is gambling, banking on appeal to authority and begging the question is a recipe for investment losses"
GCash IPO: Oversubscribed, Underbid.
A record IPO, a flat debut, then a 5% slide.
👉Four-fifths of the base offer was existing shares sold—not new capital.
👉#Benchmarkism can manufacture demand; it cannot manufacture savings.
Full analysis:
theseenandunseenbybjte.subst…
Asian Equities: Four straight weeks down, with 14 of 19 benchmarks lower, averaging −0.77% WoW. The #AI-exposed East Asian markets and the oil-exposed South Asian markets fell for different reasons, but they were hit through the same channel: tighter liquidity
Sovereign stress is spreading across #ASEAN. Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand saw CDS spreads widen, w/ Indonesia, Philippines & Vietnam nearing March 2026 highs. A Treasury rally cannot fix fiscal fragility; pricier protection signals rising sovereign risk
Sovereign stress is spreading across #ASEAN. Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand saw CDS spreads widen, w/ Indonesia, Philippines & Vietnam nearing March 2026 highs. A Treasury rally cannot fix fiscal fragility; pricier protection signals rising sovereign risk
When the US 10-year #TNX falls and ASEAN yields rise, it isn’t a rates story, it’s a funding story. Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines led the climb as tightening exposed who has liquidity and who is borrowing it. Dispersion is the diagnosis
When the US 10-year #TNX falls and ASEAN yields rise, it isn’t a rates story, it’s a funding story. Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines led the climb as tightening exposed who has liquidity and who is borrowing it. Dispersion is the diagnosis
The PSEi lost 54.07 points (-0.94%) for the week, but ICTSI, BPI and MER alone accounted for 74% of the decline. Negative breadth 9–20 added. The 30-stock average fell 1.26%, understates the damage. Broader PSE breadth stayed negative for a 7th straight week: 405–474
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