Opinion: Josh Turek has skills and outlook to succeed in US Senate | Opinion desmoinesregister.com/story/…

🚨 WATCH: Rob Sand says that it would be bad to stop Iowa universities from hiring H-1B visas. He then uses the example of somebody who moved to Iowa from Hawaii (a U.S. State). Rob apparently has no idea what an H-1B visa even is.

I’m not buying the insane polling margins for IA Gov., and I’ll explain why. IA is much more like MO these days than it is like WI, which it used to resemble. Check out 2000 and 2004 presidential results in IA/WI if you want to trouble shoot me. Here is what voter registration data tell me in the 21st century. BASELINE: IA registration today is R+9.8% (+180,067) In 2022, registration was R+4.8% (+89,505). Reynolds (R-inc.) won by 18.5%, or 226,248 margin. She overran registration by R+13.7%, +126,743 OVER. 2022 not a good comp, as it was a R year in IA. In 2018, registration was R+1.1% (+22,514). Despite it being a wave year for Dems in the House, statewide races ran differently (Sen/Gov) and Reynolds with an open seat won by 2.7%, or 36,289 votes. She overran R registration by 1.6% and 13,775 votes. That’s not a fair comparison for this year either, because R lead is now too high to expect Lahn to overrun it - still, 2018 departed from previous swings and suggests statewide (Gov/Sen) races became more subject to polarization than they had before. In 2014, registration was R+0.9% (+18,305). Branstad (R-inc.) won by 21.7%, 245,245 margin, blowing out the registration by 20.8% and 226,940 OVER. Not a good comp for 2026 with a GOP wave year and an incumbent. In 2010, Branstad won the seat for the first time alongside a wave year. Registration was D+2.2% (+44,601) and he won by +9.6% (107,696), overrunning registration by R+11.8 and 115,297. Also a GOP wave year and not a great comp. In 2006, state was D+0.9% (+18,195). Dem running for open seat won by 9.6% (101,596), running left of registration by 8.7% and 119,791. This was a Dem wave year and those shifts against registration would not be sufficient to flip IA this year. In 2002, registration was R+2.9% (+52,698). Dem incumbent won by 8.2% (83,837) - overrunning registration by 11.1% and 136,535. 2002 marks the only gubernatorial example in the 21st Century in which the Dem performance overrides the voter registration index sufficiently for Sand to have precedence to beat Lahn at all. Overriding by 11.1% this year would give him a +1.3% margin, and the raw margin shift from 2022 wouldn’t get it done this year. - TLDR: Iowa is now so red by registration that polls showing a Democrat blowout for governor are ridiculous. Sand is a strong candidate and is a statewide elected official, but winning at all will take going back to pre-polarization norms, and his ceiling can’t be more than a couple points. Likewise, in a state that loves incumbent governors, Lahn can’t expect a high margin either. I think you’re looking at a low single digits race either way here, not some insane +10.

And yet you sat down with them to seek their endorsement... twice...#IAGov youtube.com/watch?v=uE6TfPtW…

Bill Fennelly Announces 2026-27 Will Be His Final Season 📰: cyclones.com/news/2026/10/12…