2026 Topps Chrome Formula 1 Deep Dive I think I’ve had more requests for this one than any release in recent memory. I have been tied up with Japanese Samurai today, but even without that, odds dropped just a bit before the product went live. So proper analysis wasn’t coming before drop either way. Though I feel wholly unqualified to gauge actual value of an F1 product, I’m very aware that, even at $1K/Hobby Box, 2026 F1 Chrome is still far behind 2025 F1 Chrome pricing, which currently sits at ~$1450/box if you can find it. And that’s with an auto every two boxes. The F1 market is wild, man. So I guess the relevant question is...is any of this worth it? Is it worth snagging a Hobby from eBay since it’s only at $750-$800 and Big Bully Resellers are already at $1k? What about retail? It’s also hard to get, but doable. Is it worth paying $35 for a Value Box or $70 for a Mega? I think I can help answer those questions. Maybe even a few more. So let’s ride. Welcome to 2026 Topps Chrome Formula 1. Part 1: The Rundown The formats I will focus on are Hobby, Value Boxes, and the new to F1 Chrome, Megas. Hobby boxes have 20 packs of 4 cards- drop price $480/box Value boxes have 7 packs of 4 cards- retail price $35/box Megas have 6 packs of 7 cards- retail price $70/box There are some additional formats: •a First Day Issue SKU which ended at $1600 via Dutch Auction. But the value metrics of that won’t be in the same area code. •an upcoming Sapphire release which will be exorbitantly expensive •a Logofractor Edition, which if it’s anything like last year will only be available at the Fanatics flagship store in London •an Asian market exclusive Hongbao Box which will likely feature 8 cards and zero overlap with American formats Part 2: Production Numbers Total cards in product: 14,765,680 2025 Topps Chrome F1- 11,845,868 YOY- +24.6% Total Production by Format: Hobby- 54,504 boxes (4,542 cases) -----> -23% YOY First Day Issue- 1,050 boxes (88 cases) Value- 194,440 boxes (4,861 cases) ----> -15.5% YOY New Format: Mega- 116,120 boxes (5,806 cases) Part 3: Heat Map Hit Rates per Box: Hobby: Autos- 1 Parallels- 13.25 Inserts- 12 Numbered Cards- 3 Value: Autos- 1 per 77.5 boxes (1 per 1.94 cases) Parallels- 5.8 Inserts- 5.1 Numbered Cards- 1 per 1.4 boxes Mega: Autos- 1 per 19.4 boxes (1 per case) Parallels- 9.2 Inserts- 6.3 Numbered Cards- 1.5 % of Numbered Autos by Format: Mega- 100% Value- 82.23% Hobby- 81.95% Rare Inserts: Rare Inserts in this product include- Abu Dhabi At Night (Hobby only) Art Du Grand Prix (Value & Mega only) Anime Futuro Genesis Helix Helmet Collection Image Variations The Grail The Grid (Hobby only) I do want to mention the Retail exclusive Art Du Grand Prix: though technically a rare insert by definition as they fall 1 per case of Value & Mega boxes, the short checklist keeps the Print Runs over 2,000 copies ea, more than most people want to see from a “Rare Insert”. Rare Insert Hit Rates by Format: Hobby- 1 per 7.21 boxes (1.66/case) Value- 1 per 26.28 boxes (1.52/case) Mega- 1 per 13.28 boxes (1.51/case) It’s important to note, if you filter out the ubiquitous 1-per-case Art Du Grand Prix from the retail numbers and focus instead on the more desirable examples, you are left with a Rare Insert pull rate of 0.52 from Value & 0.51 from Megas...essentially 1 every other case. Part 4: Value Map Based on drop price of $480/Hobby and Retail price of $35/Value & $70/Mega. Just for fun, I’ll go ahead and add another entry for Hobby at current market of $785/box to see where it lands. Just be wary of buying any boxes from ebay. Overall, I suspect your chances of pulling one of the coveted Rare Inserts will be a little less from ebay boxes in general. $/Card: 1) Value- $1.25 2) Mega- $1.67 3) Hobby (drop)- $6.00 4) Hobby (market)- $9.81 $/Parallel: 1) Value- $6.07 2) Mega- $7.62 3) Hobby (drop)- $36.28 4) Hobby (market)- $59.33 $/Auto: 1) Hobby (drop)- $466.02 2) Hobby (market)- $762.14 3) Mega- $1,359.40 4) Value- $2,711.80 $/# Card: 1) Mega- $46.67 2) Value- $50.40 3) Hobby (drop)- $160.00 4) Hobby (market)- $261.67 $/Rare Insert: 1) Value- $919.80 2) Mega- $929.60 3) Hobby (drop)- $3,460.80 4) Hobby (market)- $5,659.85 $/Quality Hit: 1) Value- $113.75 2) Mega-$122.50 3) Hobby (drop)- $302.40 4) Hobby (market)- $494.55 Part 5: Experiment Time I like to do this from time to time, and I think this product is ripe for it. Let’s compare some rips at fairly equal spend. We did this for F1 Chrome last year and the results were rather eye-opening. Let’s say you’re trying to decide between an entire case of either Value or Mega boxes to rip, (assuming you can even find case quantity at retail). Or a similar expenditure on Hobby Boxes. I understand it may be a little lofty to expect to find even Values or Megas at retail anywhere near case quantity. But no one ever claimed this game is easy. Hobby- 2 boxes- $785 ea ($1570 total) Value- 1 case- $35 ea ($1400 total) Mega- 1 case- $70 ea ($1400 total) Expected Results: Hobby (2 boxes): Autos- 2 Parallels- 26.5 Inserts- 24 Numbered Cards- 6 Chance of a Rare Insert- 27.7% Value (40 boxes): Autos- 51.6% chance at 1 Parallels- 230.8 Inserts- 204.8 Numbered Cards- 27.8 Rare Inserts- 1.52 (1 Art Du Grand Prix, 52% chance at another) Mega (20 boxes): Autos- 1 Parallels- 183.8 Inserts- 125.4 Numbered Cards- 30 Rare Inserts- 1.51 (1 Art Du Grand Prix, 51% chance at another) Part 6: What Would the Squatch Do? I’m not trying to turn anyone away from Hobby boxes. They actually seem legit. And an auto per box this year should do wonders for value since the pull rate was half of that last year. Autos are the strongest case for Hobby with this release. On a side note, does 100 auto subjects seem a bit excessive for an F1 release? I didn’t realize there were that many folks in all of F1. I understand there’s also F2, F3, etc. etc. There were only 66 signers in the main auto subset last year. So I’m guessing there are a fair amount of filler names included. There is no denying Hobby boxes have mountains of upside- much more so than the retail formats. One lucky person will be pulling the only Debut Patch in the entire product from Hobby...and I hear Arvid Lindblad is decent. However, if you’re not trying to spend $800-$1k on a Hobby box, either Value Boxes or Megas should do just fine. There is plenty to like about them. Just because they don’t have the absolute highest nuclear upside with no Rookie Debut Patch potential, there are still plenty of monsters in retail. Value boxes have their own Raywave Rainbow. Megas have a “Checker Flag” Rainbow, which I suspect are just Chrome X-fractors pulling double duty. Strangely, there is almost no overlap in Autos in the three formats. Aside from a small number of Base Autos in Value Boxes, both Values and Megas have their own numbered auto parallels, most of which are /25 or less. Every single Auto pulled from Megas should be numbered. Some of the biggest Rare Inserts in the product are also pullable from retail formats. This includes Anime, Helix, Genesis, and The Grail. Not only are they in there, but retail SKUs are the cheapest way to pull all of them. Don’t sleep on retail with this F1 release. Those $ Per Quality Hit numbers of $113.75/Value & $122.50/Mega are JUICY. And miles better than Hobby boxes even at drop price. For all these reasons, I’ll be trying my best to find some Value or Mega boxes at retail price. I’d love to snag a case or two. I’m fine with either as the numbers are basically interchangeable. Honestly, I probably prefer Megas for the better Auto & Numbered Card pull rates. Funny story, last year F1 Chrome Value Boxes were pretty solid too. I gave them the Squatch seal of approval and was actually able to acquire a full case of them from one of my honey holes. I sat on them for a while, eventually deciding to sell, and didn’t do terribly. Pretty sure I unloaded them at something like $60/ea. Any idea what a case goes for now? Oh...only about $10k, or ~$250/box. Of course, that checklist had a rookie by the name of Kimi Antonelli who I hear is not bad. But the auto pull rate from Value Boxes last year was abysmal at 1 in 105 boxes. From a dynamics perspective, 2026 is better. Though from a checklist perspective maybe not. If you see these in public, they’re a buy. Especially retail SKUs. I don’t think Hobby is worth $800/box...but what do I know? I’m just a Neanderthal who writes about cards from his basement. If you're still reading this, I have a feeling you'd like the content over on my Substack. I have a metric ton of these product breakdowns of all Topps products imaginable. You should check it out: slabsquatch.substack.com/p/2… Part 7: Print Runs By the way...I have a question I’m hoping one of you F1 folks can answer for me: What is the significance of the number “22” when it comes to F1? A ton of the insert sets have 22 card checklists and there’s an odd “Grid Refractor” numbered /22. Please enlighten me if you know. It would be much appreciated. Base Card Production: ~46,915 ea Unnumbered Parallels: Refractors- ~4,715 ea Ray Wave (Value only)- ~3,405 ea Prism (Hobby only)- ~1,110 ea Checker Flag (Mega only)- ~3,485 ea Unnumbered Inserts: Austin to Mexico City (22 card CL)- ~16,460 ea Dancing in the Rain (22 card CL)- ~16,460 ea Helmet Collection (22 card CL)- ~16,460 ea Home Straight (25 card CL, Value & Mega only)- ~12,420 ea Speed Wheels (22 card CL)- ~16,460 ea Suit Up (25 card CL, Value & Mega only)- ~12,420 ea Women of the Paddock (11 card CL)- ~18,600 ea Rare Inserts: Abu Dhabi at Night (22 card CL, Hobby & FDI only)- ~26 ea Art Du Grand Prix (5 card CL, Value & Mega only)- ~2,135 ea Anime (9 card CL)- ~195 ea Futuro (4 card CL)- ~845 ea Genesis (10 card CL)- ~340 ea Helix (22 card CL)- ~100 ea Helmet Collection Image Variations (10 card CL)- ~100 ea The Grail G-1 (Lando Norris)- ~35 ea The Grail G-4 (Max Verstappen)- ~50 ea The Grail G-7 (Oscar Piastri)- ~60 ea The Grid (19 card CL, Hobby & FDI only)- ~25 ea Unnumbered Autos: Base Chrome Autos (100 card CL)- ~105 ea #thehobby #SlabSquatchAnalytics #2026ToppsChromeF1