Data Analyst with a keen interest in polling and elections BSky 🦋: https://teapawt.net/t.co/7oLdilwVaC Non-politics account: @andlawton
Sheffield, UK
Joined November 2018
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Andy Lawton retweeted
Changed my handle over at the other place. 🦋
There's enough usage over there that I plan for it to be my primary location to post to.
Changed my handle over at the other place. 🦋
There's enough usage over there that I plan for it to be my primary location to post to.
Andy Lawton retweeted
My wish for the next election is that poll trackers look like the one on the right 👉 not the left
This was yet another election where the polling showed it could easily go either way, but most of the charts just showed two nice clean lines, one leading and one trailing. Bad!
I was pretty sure the bias would be lower this election, would be interesting if it now effectively zero.
Maybe if the advantage does totally flip it may be possible to get rid of the electoral college eventually. Though that's much easier said than done.
Andy Lawton retweeted
Just to clarify: this isn’t just the first time since WW2 that all incumbent parties in developed countries lost vote share.
It’s the first time since this data was first recorded in 1905. Essentially the first time in the history of democracy (universal suffrage began in 1894).
Can we just get a bit of stability at some time please.
Off to a great start.
At her first #PMQs as Leader of the Opposition, @KemiBadenoch claimed Labour’s Autumn Budget “did not even mention defence”.
This isn’t correct. Defence spending was referred to multiple times in the Budget document and also in the chancellor’s speech. buff.ly/4eowNYK
Andy Lawton retweeted
Polling is the best tool we have, but it is a tool with known and growing problems and those problems really need attention.
Andy Lawton retweeted
Trump becomes the oldest president ever inaugurated.
The first president elected for a non-consecutive term since Grover Cleveland.
The only president re-elected after a successful impeachment, let alone two.
The only president to be convicted of a crime, then re-elected.
This failed me in July... should of made sure I stuck with it better for the US election.
Yes shut down polling because it was broadly correct and the models build on it suggested this outcome was one of the likeliest...
But no we should rely on the entirely soft data which made people think "the polls are wrong Harris will beat them"
Andy Lawton retweeted
You spend months saying "there are thousands of different combinations that could happen!" and then the result is literally the most common one economist.com/interactive/gr…
Andy Lawton retweeted
Well he's certainly got some convictions
Congratulations, President @realDonaldTrump. Ready to work together as we did for four years. With your convictions and mine. With respect and ambition. For more peace and prosperity.
Andy Lawton retweeted
Word of the day is ‘recrudescence’ (17th century): the return of something terrible after a time of reprieve.
Andy Lawton retweeted
I think Shapiro would have been a better pick, potentially removing pt3.
But Walz is the safer pick and can be more sure on pt4. With the trends already seen in polling, likely able to exploit Trump regardless, maybe going ultra safe is the right choice.
Some initial quick thoughts on Walz: 1. Shows the power of social media. Literally drove a news cycle with "weird". 2. Shows the power of being seen as a nice/non-divisive guy. 3. Zero sign he helps electorally. 4. Zero sign he hurts electorally.
cnn.com/politics/live-news/k…
I assume Canada's immigration page will again be getting a *lot* of traffic, I hope their beefed up servers can handle it.
Doesn't mean I expect much increased immigration will actually happen.
Part of a global story but America should have been able to look at international comparisons and tell a different story. They failed to do so.
While mostly not a candidate issue, I don't see Dems picking a female nominee again for a good while unfortunately.
