Anthony Barton

🇬🇧 10-Year gilt yields on track for the biggest 1-day move higher since Reeves cried in the Commons.

A lot of "infox" in the French media this AM, Bayrou for PM confirmed.

Hershey’s main owner said to reject Mondelez’s… not sweet enough cc: @MrMBrown

China's Politburo flags "moderately loose" monetary policy, the first shift in policy stance since '11, as the economy continues to struggle with well-known headwinds.

🇺🇲⚠️ With the market so focused on Trump-related inflation risks, a below-expected CPI reading would help firm December cut pricing, with Powell noting that overall recent figures suggest the FOMC is on track to meet its 2% target. - Conversely, a well above-expected core CPI print would fuel speculation that the Fed will take increasing care in dialling back restriction. - Fed funds futures currently price 16.5bp of cuts for next month and 70bp through the end of ’25. - Full @MNIMarketnews preview: marketnews.com/mni-us-cpi-pr… - Sell-side forecasts 👇🏻

🇬🇧 Ipsos: 52% of Britons are unfavourable towards Starmer (joint highest as Labour leader) - Labour goes from +6 net favourability upon taking office to -21 - When asked to give the government a score between 0 & 10, October’s score is 3.8 vs. 4.4 in Sep ipsos.com/en-uk/labour-and-s…

🇨🇳 China’s deflationary problems became more entrenched in September, with consumer prices still weak and factory gate prices continuing to fall - BBG bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

🇨🇳 Four of China's biggest state-owned banks announced cuts on Saturday to existing mortgage rates starting on Oct. 25, as the authorities ramp up efforts to stimulate the world's second-biggest economy - RTRS reuters.com/world/china/chin…

🇨🇳 China moved to further ramp up support for the economy, promising more aid for the slumping property sector and indebted local governments. But officials still haven’t convinced economists that they’re doing enough to defeat deflation - BBG bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Also note, this echoes his updated dots provided in the latest SEP

🇺🇲🦅 Fed’s Bostic Keeps Door Open to Skipping Rate Cut in November - WSJ wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-m…

🇬🇧 Legal & General Investment Management is shifting from US Treasuries and German debt into the UK’s bonds as it sees the Bank of England catching up with other central banks in slashing interest rates - BBG bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

The Ukrainian President has already denied this: unn.ua/en/news/the-president…

🇺🇲 Consensus sees core CPI at 0.2% M/M in Sep, although there is sizeable skew toward a ⬆️ outcome. - Oct payrolls could be more impactful for the Nov FOMC, barring particularly large inflation surprises. - Get briefed via the @MNIMarketNews preview 👇🏻 mni.marketnews.com/access_no…

🇬🇧 Gilts wider on this headline. - Story more caveated. - Citi note that such a risk is ”a material concern, but not now. If the rules are changed & the possibility is entertained that Reeves could invest ~£50bln next year, then it’s a conceivable risk.” bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

🇺🇲🦅 Citadel Securities’ de Pass Sees 25 Bps of Cuts for Rest of the Year - BBG bloomberg.com/news/videos/20…

Investors who expect central banks in industrialized nations to successfully tap the brakes on growth while skirting downturns would do well to target five-year bonds, according to PIMCO - BBG bloomberg.com/news/articles/…