Armistice Security Consult International®

Our election monitoring tool continued rolling over Cabo Verde, Angola, Gambia, Kenya, Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan and Tanzania (post election); READ FULL REPORTS: armisticesecure.com/category… • Coalition bargaining, emerging opposition formations and electoral reform shaped Kenya’s October political landscape. • South Sudan’s party preparations are advancing faster than agreement on the foundations for a credible vote. • Tanzania’s election anniversary renewed scrutiny of accountability, opposition participation and civic freedoms. • Somalia’s election calendar has brought political agreement and federal relations into sharper focus. • Nigeria’s presidential campaigns are advancing amid voter-register concerns and persistent security exposure. •Gambia’s presidential contest is moving from political declarations towards formal nominations. • Angola’s election preparations accelerated as the MPLA leadership dispute and voter-registration complaints sharpened political scrutiny. • October moved Cabo Verde from confirmed presidential candidacies into active campaigning.

OCTOBER MONTHLY SECURITY & THREAT REPORT SUDAN — NATIONAL COVERAGE Reporting Period: 1 – 31 October 2026 Information cut-off date: 31 October 2026, 23:59 CAT October was the deadliest month for civilians of the conflict's fourth year, and the weapon was the DRONE 306 deaths from drone strikes were documented in the first three weeks of the month. Both the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) struck places where civilians gather. The month's defining strategic development was a second front against infrastructure. Since early October the RSF has struck the Al-Dabba, Merowe, Atbara, Al-Rusayris, Tendalti and Al-Faw power station, ASCI monitors documented over 10 RSF hits on power infrastructure in two weeks. READ FULL REPORT: armisticesecure.com/category…

OCTOBER MONTHLY SECURITY & THREAT REPORT ETHIOPIA — NATIONAL COVERAGE Reporting Period: 1 – 31 October 2026 Information cut-off date: 31 October 2026, 23:59 EAT A distressed Ethiopia on all fronts; Tigray is a patchwork. Federal and TPF forces hold the cities and the A2 spine; the TDF operates in the central highlands and north-west. Towns change hands in days, and control claims should be treated as unverified until independent access or imagery confirms them. In Amhara, the insurgency is territorially deep and mobile. Somali region is boiling humanitarian and trade effects are immediate and cross-border. only SOUTHERN, CENTRAL, SIDAMA AND SOUTH WEST REGIONS appear silent but a quiet region is not a risk-free region. READ FULL REPORT: armisticesecure.com/category…

MONTHLY SECURITY & THREAT REPORT KENYA — NATIONAL COVERAGE Reporting Period: 1 – 31 October 2026 Information cut-off date: 31 October 2026, 23:59 EAT armisticesecure.com/category… October was a month of compounding, multi-stream risk in which a health emergency, a hardening political contest, a regional displacement crisis, a seasonal weather shock and a lethal escalation in the north-east all coincided. November is likely to be defined by the interaction of rain, displacement and an exposed security posture: Moyale arrivals and floods in the Tana Delta and Lamu stretch response capacity while Al-Shabaab tests forward bases in the north-east, banditry persists in the North Rift and fuel prices keep Nairobi protests live. The Ebola incubation window closes around 8-9 November but outbreak closure is later. Plan for road and flood closures and likely fuel-price protest days in Nairobi. ASCI rates Kenya AMBER overall with a RED trend and will update on the Ebola window and the 14 November EPRA review.

October was defined by the unravelling of federal control in Bay and its first major counter-offensive, an Al-Shabaab campaign against Mogadishu's southern approaches, a hardening election dispute that ended the month without a UN political mission, and the first concrete steps in the withdrawal of the AU security umbrella. The security-guarantor layer is being withdrawn faster than a replacement is built. Ethiopia has declined to intervene in Bay and its troops are reported drawing down; Uganda began withdrawing on 29 October ; AU forces were reported on 29 October to be preparing to vacate several Lower Shabelle positions in early November; UNSOS support and the AUSSOM mandate face December decisions; UNTMIS closed on 31 October. WHO OCCUPIES THE VACUUM? OCTOBER MONTHLY SECURITY & THREAT REPORT SOMALIA — NATIONAL COVERAGE Reporting Period: 1 – 31 October 2026 Information cut-off date: 31 October 2026, 23:59 EAT armisticesecure.com/category…

INCIDENT ALERT Incident: Armed Attack on Security Checkpoint | Firearm Theft ID: 20261026 | 03:40 EAT Loc: Barabara ya Mchanga, Likoni Sub-County, Mombasa County, Kenya Incident Level: HIGH (Level 3) – Fatal attack on officers; police rifle stolen INCIDENT SUMMARY A gang armed with crude weapons attacked officers manning a county government cess-collection checkpoint in Likoni in the early hours of Monday, 26 October 2026. One Mombasa County enforcement officer killed. Three other officers (including Administration Police) were injured. The attackers overpowered the team, seized an AK-47 rifle loaded with 30 rounds from an Administration Police officer, and used the weapon during the assault. The rifle remains missing. DETAILS: armisticesecure.com/armed-at…

INCIDENT ALERT Incident: Building Collapse | Mass Casualty Potential ID: 20261023 | 13:46 EAT Loc: Eastleigh (8th Street area), Nairobi, Kenya Incident Level: CRITICAL (Level 4) – Multi-storey structural collapse with persons reported trapped INCIDENT SUMMARY A multi-storey building has collapsed in Eastleigh, 8th Street; the structure is described as under construction or recently completed. Multiple local sources report that several people are trapped under the rubble. Emergency response teams, including ambulances and rescue personnel, have been mobilised. Business activity in the immediate area has stopped and crowds have gathered. DETAILS: armisticesecure.com/building…

INCIDENT ALERT Incident: Armed Assault | Al-Shabaab ID: 20261023 | 06:15 EAT Loc: Gendershe and Jilib Marka, Lower Shabelle Region, Somalia (coastal road, Mogadishu–Marka corridor) Incident Level: HIGH (Level 3) – Overnight raids on defensive outposts south of Mogadishu INCIDENT SUMMARY Al-Shabaab militants launched coordinated attacks overnight on two key government outposts at Gendershe and Jilib Marka, along the coastal road between Mogadishu and Marka. Fighting continued until around dawn on 23 October. Local and security sources state that militia and government forces manning the checkpoints in both settlements withdrew or fled. DETAILS:armisticesecure.com/armed-as… These settlements function as outer defensive posts for Mogadishu and control the main civilian road link to Marka. The raids occur amid concurrent Al-Shabaab pressure on areas around Afgooye.

INCIDENT ALERT Incident: Drone Strike | Blue Nile Front ID: 20261022 | 15:45 EAT Loc: Ad-Damazin, Blue Nile State, Sudan Incident Level: ELEVATED (Level 2) – Reported RSF drone attack on regional capital INCIDENT SUMMARY The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are reported to have targeted Ad-Damazin, the capital of Blue Nile State, with a drone on 22 October. Details of the precise impact point, damage or casualties from today’s strike remain limited at the time of writing. The report is consistent with a pattern of RSF drone activity against Damazin in recent weeks, including earlier strikes that hit the residence of the Blue Nile governor and other sites. DETAILS: armisticesecure.com/drone-st… Simultaneously, ground fighting continues in the wider Blue Nile region between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and an RSF–SPLM-North alliance. SAF has claimed recent tactical gains (including recapture of positions such as Bukuri).

SITUATION ALERT SITUATION: Inter-communal | Regional Clashes ID: 20261022 | 13:37EAT Loc: Moyale town and surrounding areas (Oromia–Somali Region border), Ethiopia Incident Level: HIGH (Level 3) – Active armed clashes with civilian casualties and displacement SITUATION SUMMARY Deadly clashes have erupted between Oromo/Borana and Somali/Garre communities in and around Moyale, along the Oromia–Somali Region boundary near the Kenya border. The latest flare-up was triggered on 18 October when Somali Region officials opened a new administration office in Kebele 02 and raised the Somali Region flag. This led to an exchange of gunfire between Somali Region police/forces and Oromia local militias. A 13-year-old girl was killed. Fighting resumed and intensified on 22 October, with sustained gunfire reported across the town. Civilians have fled into Kenya; cross-border roads are disrupted. Attacks, property torching and looting reported. DETAILS:armisticesecure.com/inter-co… ENDF and Federal Police have deployed but have not fully halted the fighting. Casualty figures beyond the confirmed child fatality remain unconfirmed and contested. Kenya on high alert for spillover.

INCIDENT ALERT Incident: Student Protest | Highway Barricade ID: 20261021 | 13:01 EAT Loc: IVO UON, Waiyaki Way -Uhuru Highway, Nairobi, Kenya Incident Level: ELEVATED (Level 2) – Active road blockage by student demonstrators INCIDENT SUMMARY University of Nairobi (UoN) students have staged protests along Waiyaki Way-Uhuru Highway, lighting bonfires, burning tyres and barricading sections of the highway with stones. The action is in demand of an immediate end to the ongoing lecturers’ strike, which has disrupted learning. DETAILS:armisticesecure.com/student-… ADVISORY: Seek alternative routes.