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Joined September 2019
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"It's the economy, stupid," remains one of the most succinct political aphorisms of modern American politics.
A Simple Man retweeted
My uncle owned a painting business for decades in Illinois (he was the sole employee). 15 years ago he told me that this prime source for supporting his family was severely undercut by cheap migrant labor flooding the market.
Americans will do these jobs, if not undermined.
Montana ranks 49th of 50 states in percentage of immigrants— so in my daily life I’m not confronted with The Great Replacement when I’m not traveling.
Just returning from a trip
To the northeast where I had Yemeni Uber drivers and Congolese hotel front desk clerks.
Americans do these jobs in Montana.
I don’t hate these people— if I were born in Yemen, I’d want to come here too.
But as for the people who actively allowed them to come here— the people who created the policies that brought them here:
I can’t say what I think should happen to them, because if I did, i’d be banned from this site.
It’s a total betrayal of our country.
A Simple Man retweeted
OK, I’ll try to explain now that I have a second. So I teach a very short story called “The Sniper” that is about the Irish Civil War. You might be shocked to know that it features a sniper. In fact, it features two dueling snipers.
So I teach the story and the boys love it. They love it from the second that the sniper comes out. They enjoy the description of when he gets shot in the arm and has to deal with the bullet. They love the moral question of was it honorable to shoot the civilian who informed on him, etc.
The girls are over there making faces like “ewww what is this??”
Then we get to the end, where the epiphany happens. All of a sudden the story has real people consequences, because this dude just discovered he sniped HIS OWN BROTHER and suddenly it becomes real to the girls as well as the boys.
Someone who has been teaching for 20 years might be surprised by this.
The girls didn’t care until there were people and relarionships they could hang it on and the boys cared from the beginning because of the guy with the gun.
This is adolescent psychology 101.
Railing against this is to be Cuchulainn fighting the invulnerable tide. For every exception there are 30 kids that prove the rule.
Okay, I'll explain:
Boys don't like weapons. They like tools. This is one of the largest gaps between men and women, and incredibly well-established. Boys are interested in "things" and conceptualize them as tools. Girls are interested in people and conceptualize them as relationships.
She thinks that we're "socially conditioning boys to be violent" which is why they're "fascinated by weapons." No. They're learning how to use tools, and hitting something with another object is about the earliest "tool using behavior" possible. Even some birds do it. Boys fascinated by UTILITY; the idea that an object has undiscovered potential to do things.
Her concerns and analysis could easily be resolved if she would bother to familiarize herself with the century of scientific literature on the subject.
This is a good example of why journalists should report instead of comment: if they actually understood things (or had the capacity to do so), they'd be doing them instead of reporting on them.
A Simple Man retweeted
If some people are worried about the optics of ICE enforcing our immigration laws, there are other ways to accomplish mass deportations:
1) Debank all illegal aliens
2) Ban remittances
3) Target more employers who hire illegals
4) End the fraud of illegals getting welfare
A Simple Man retweeted
The Statue of Liberty was never intended to be an invitation for the world to immigrate to America. That's a historical myth.
In 1865, French republican Édouard de Laboulaye proposed the monument to celebrate America's republic, its survival after the Civil War, and to inspire republican government in France.
When it was dedicated in 1886, President Grover Cleveland never mentioned immigration.
Emma Lazarus, a Jewish American poet advocating for Jewish refugees, wrote “The New Colossus” in 1883 to help fund the pedestal.
Her poem appeared in the New York World, owned by Joseph Pulitzer, a Hungarian-born Jewish immigrant. Pulitzer later led a newspaper campaign to fund the statue's pedestal in 1885.
But the poem wasn't added to the statue until 1903, seventeen years after its dedication, following a campaign by Lazarus's friend Georgina Schuyler, great-granddaughter of Alexander Hamilton.
Over the following decades, the monument's meaning shifted from celebrating republican liberty to welcoming immigrants.
Today, politicians invoke a poem written a century after America's founding as though it supersedes the Constitution and grants the world a right to immigrate.
A poem added in 1903 doesn't rewrite America's founding principles or obligate us to take in the world.
A Simple Man retweeted
It’s because the alternative explanations are too terrible for the liberal project to entertain.
A Simple Man retweeted
I received so many arrows for saying Talarico had carried the early vote in Texas and was on his way to winning statewide as a result.
Literally all of this ended up being true, by the way.
But read the comments here and look at how many bookmarks this got. I'm willing to bet most of them were from people waiting to dunk on me the moment Paxton won.
The lesson is to never let audience capture force you into affirming electoral delusions you know are incorrect. I hated the attacks and insults I got at the time from people who thought I was an idiot for predicting we'd lose Texas, but in hindsight, I'm glad I shared the data I had and made the calls I did.
As devastated as I am by the results of this year's midterms, this whole ordeal has taught me that I do, in fact, know what I'm talking about.
And I will never lie to you about what I believe is about to happen.
I want to stress that this is early voting only, not a projection of the final result.
Texas Early Voting as of 10/30:
🔵Dems - 40.39%
⚪️Swing - 22.59%
🔴GOP - 37.03%
>🔵D+3.36%
On this day in 2024:
🔵Dems - 35.75%
⚪️Swing - 23.55%
🔴GOP - 40.69%
>🔴R+4.94%
On this day in 2022:
🔵Dems - 38.68%
⚪️Swing - 15.96%
🔴GOP - 45.36%
>🔴R+6.68%
On this day in 2020:
🔵Dems - 38.44%
⚪️Swing - 21.52%
🔴GOP - 40.04%
>🔴R+1.59%
On this day in 2018:
🔵Dems - 40.57%
⚪️Swing - 15.29%
🔴GOP - 44.14%
>🔴R+3.57%
"But wait, Trump ultimately did far better in 2024 than he did in 2020 or even compared to Abbott in 2022!"
Yes he did. His landslide victory was driven by swing voters who broke overwhelmingly for him. And fortunately for us, we have the benefit of hindsight as to how swing voters broke in the past.
How Swing Voters Broke in 2024
🔴 GOP - 67.78%
🔵 Dems - 32.22%
>🔴R+35.56!!!
How Swing Voters Broke in 2022
🔴 GOP - 56.08%
🔵 Dems - 43.92%
>🔴R+12.17
How Swing Voters Broke in 2020
🔴 GOP - 54.08%
🔵 Dems - 45.92%
>🔴R+8.16
How Swing Voters Broke in 2018
🔴 GOP - 47.31%
🔵 Dems - 52.69%
>🔵D+5.39
This is why Texas now looks competitive this cycle. Trump crushed Harris with swing voters in 2024, and those voters are now necessarily dedicated Republicans. They're GOP-leaning (remember, Texas is a Red state!), but if they really sour on the GOP, they can end up producing mediocre margins for the Republican nominee, or even occasionally desert him as they did narrowly against Cruz in 2018.
This means that if Paxton does as poorly with swing voters as Cruz did in 2018, or even as poorly as Trump did in 2020, he's cooked and the polls will end up off in favor of the Democrats. Talarico will win by something like 1.5-4.5 points.
But if Paxton matches Abbott's performance with swing voters, it becomes a 50/50 toss-up where Talarico leads by 0.6%, but that could easily be overcome with election-day voters.
And if Paxton somehow matched even Cruz's coattails in 2024, when he won swing voters by 19 points off the back of Trump's victory, he wins by just over 1% (likely more like 1.5-2%, as election day will help him out too).
This is why the polls and betting markets give Talarico the lead right now. Paxton can win, but he must overcome a historical early-voting deficit that neither Trump in 2020 nor Cruz in 2018 faced, and win swing voters by a margin that at least approaches Greg Abbott's performance in 2022.
A Simple Man retweeted
“We haven’t fundamentally changed who we are as a state.”
Yeah, you have.
Texas will be red again. We haven’t fundamentally changed who we are as a state.
The silver lining is the Democrats are going to overreach. They have tragically been taken over by radicals, by Marxists and Islamists, and that’s who’s driving the train.
When they get to Washington, they are going to drive an extreme agenda that I think is going to cause a lot of buyer’s remorse for the voters who wanted something different.
We've got to be here to provide common sense, to provide free market policies and that actually make a difference for working men and women.
A Simple Man retweeted
I remember a campaign a decade ago called the “sad puppies”. Male authors, upset the Hugo Awards for sci fi writing were biased against any author who wrote “guy stuff” or was seen as conservative, advanced their own slate of nominees, as anyone can do. They swept to the point it was procedurally impossible to deny them the awards.
The Hugos had a tantrum, refused to give awards that year at all, then changed the rules. For years after (dunno if to this day), no man ever won anything again.
That’s the kind of institutional purges of men and male interests from literature that caused “men don’t read”.
A Simple Man retweeted
This is just the 1986 amnesty deal all over again, and instead of merely flipping California Blue, it'll flip the entire country Blue.
No "policy," no "compromise," no "reform" is ever worth turning your own side into a permanent political minority.
What this fake compromise would do is give Democrats a pathway to citizenship for their future voting bloc, while Republicans get a bunch of feel-good policies that will either never be implemented or will end up being overturned the moment Democrats win an election off the backs of the very illegals we converted into citizens.
This is political suicide for the Right, which is why we shouldn't be surprised to see Republicans in Congress fantasizing about such an outcome. They so desperately want to lose on purpose because it makes them feel good being the principled but powerless opposition.
The problem is that the moral superiority they feel when they lose comes at the cost of betraying people like us. They get to feel good, and we get to be relegated to the status of becoming a hated minority in our own country.
Under no circumstances can we ever allow amnesty to happen again. Every single illegal alien in my country must be deported without exception.
Spitballing a hypothetical.
Republicans - would you be open to an immigration deal that would legalize Dreamers & give protections to longtime illegal immigrants w/ no criminal record if they came forward & paid a fee/back taxes in exchange national voter ID requirements, a nationwide federal ban on sanctuary cities (ICE detainers must be honored at jails for criminal aliens) and a strict overhaul on the asylum system to prevent fraudulent claims overwhelming the system?
Would Dems have any appetite for such a deal?
A Simple Man retweeted
this is why you have to raise your kids on specific, pre-21st century media. Tintin, Calvin and Hobbes, Moomin, Asterix, Wishbone, etc. the people who made those things were operating on a completely different paradigm as to what children want and need.
A Simple Man retweeted
You know sometimes I really hate being proven correct. Up until the midterms I was arguing with very silly people who were advocating that we needed to protest vote for Democrats. Their argument was this was the only way to make our voices heard, so we had to do it, because otherwise things would continue to shift leftward.
I argued instead that people are rarely emboldened in defeat. That it would actually make it more likely that we shift towards more moderate positions, and not in anyway go further right. That it would all embolden the worst people on the right, the pre-Trump establishment and those backing amnesty.
And even if this is just left to rhetoric, it is still rhetoric which is not bolder than it was before. It still shows that people falter, consolidate, and moderate in the face of defeat. “Vote blue to save us and push us further right.” Has shown itself to have been quite possibly one of the most retarded political ideas ever implemented.
The sad part is, I guarantee you it will be sold again as the correct action to take in 2028. Just please remember how absolutely retarded it was then, when people tell you to do this again.
A Simple Man retweeted
In Telford, 1000+ underage children were held in a "Rape House" where they were gang-raped, tortured, and abused by Muslim men.
Despite hundreds being identified and 67 being arrested, only 7 were convicted. Russell Brand received a longer sentence than all but two of them.
A Simple Man retweeted
Hi. Former Boy here. Grown man now with children of my own.
I was a voracious reader as a child. I read whatever I wanted to, from picture books to science texts to legal tomes.
Then people like you started telling me what I *should* be reading. What I should be 'appreciating'. Your ilk sucked all the joy out of reading. You made me hate it.
After high school I didn't pick up another book for pleasure for many years.
Encouraging kids of *both* sexes to read what they *enjoy* is good.
Telling one sex they're doing it wrong - that they're not 'appreciating' the correct forms of literature, is wildly misguided and blinding arrogant.
A Simple Man retweeted
These "pro-business conservatives" are the sort of people who end up cutting checks for the Republican Party, and their only concern is lower taxes and eliminating government intrusion into their business. Zero attention is paid to the overall trajectory of the country, the future of the American people, or the fact that we are systematically replacing them with foreigners from the Third World.
Guys like this belong in prison and little will change until we start going after employers who not only serve as a magnet for illegals to come here in the first place, but harbor them from deportations and then shove a knife in the back of any Republican politician the moment they actually try to enforce immigration law.
We saw in the midterms that counties in the Midwest that are home to large industries relying on illegal labor (such as the Golden Triangle of Meat-packing in Kansas) ended up flipping to the Democrats.
"I was a big part of the blue wave.."
That's Lee Haight, president of RRCA (Roofing & Reconstruction Contractors of America) in Naples, Florida, defending his illegal immigrant crew from ICE and saying they're "necessary," not a burden on society.
In the same video he complains the insurance company steered jobs to his competitors, then brags about an $85,000 stone-coated steel roof on the water and a claim he says could top $150,000.
Cheap labor works out GREAT for the guy at the top. LMAO
A Simple Man retweeted
My mother’s parents died in Pol Pot’s killing fields because nobody could fathom what the Khmer Rouge were about to do
My friends have been made legal targets by corporate cartels and the government they’ve leased
There have been 2 shootings and open drug dealing within a half mile of my house thanks to Leftist politics
I cannot hate communists enough
A Simple Man retweeted
Immigration is the sole issue of our time
Everything, and I truly mean everything, pales in comparison to the existential nature of our current immigration system
If your favorite Right Wing talking head is talking about anything but immigration, deportations, etc you should immediately write the show or call in and demand they refocus their attention to immigration
Your pet issue means nothing if America is overrun by the third world, and as of right now that outcome is a certainty. A certainty. Read it again. It is a certainty, not a prediction, that your nation will be overrun by 100X what Biden let in during his 4 years.
Are you for small government? Immigration
Are you big on cost of living? Immigration
Are you for a Christian nation? Immigration
Are you for second amendment rights? Immigration
Are you for first amendment rights? Immigration
Are you pro Israel? Gross, but immigration