Впервые в следующий вторник буду давать вебинар на русском языке для @RidlRussia на одну из своих любимых тем: Латинская Америка 🙂 Вот ссылка для регистрации: forms.gle/CRiFDKqv1xD6kdki8 For the first time, next Tuesday I'll be presenting at a webinar in Russian on one of my favorite topics: Latin America in global politics. Here's the link to register: forms.gle/CRiFDKqv1xD6kdki8

25 Years of the SCO #Bishkek The 25th anniversary summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has concluded in Bishkek. Much was said and signed. In my view, it is particularly significant that Xi Jinping stated that China intends to strengthen cooperation with SCO member states to resolve conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Afghanistan 👇🏼

#RussiaGlobalSouth On August 18, Vladimir Putin met with Myanmar's President Min Aung Hlaing in Moscow. Key outcomes and announcements: • Russia is beginning to implement agreements on the construction (in 2027) of a small modular nuclear power plant in Myanmar; • the construction of an oil refinery and a power plant in southern Myanmar were also discussed; • Russian companies are ready to participate in hydrocarbon exploration and production, including offshore projects; • Russia sees potential for exports of naval technology (today, it already accounts for 38% of arms supplies to Myanmar); • Russia sees potential for LNG supplies to Myanmar and transit shipments to neighboring countries; • two-thirds of commercial transactions between Russia and Myanmar are conducted in rubles; • Myanmar will soon open a Consulate General in Vladivostok; • an agreement has been reached to build a Russian Orthodox church in Yangon. The broader picture: #Russia-#Myanmar ties are moving beyond political alignment toward a more diversified partnership combining energy, infrastructure, local-currency trade and institutional presence.

Von einem Professor würde ich etwas mehr Analyse erwarten, nich nur Wunschdenken.

Link to the discussion: youtu.be/B-qlZqPAXV8?is=Tchv…

Women & Geopolitics in last week’s “A Fondo” @DeutscheWelle (Spanish). I really enjoyed discussing Putin’s visit to China, #Russia–#China relations, and the emerging world order with these three fabulous women Ana Soliz de Stange, Ruth Ferrero & Úrsula Moreno. I picked up a few new perspectives too. My main point was: #Eurasia is emerging as a central arena of the new world order. Despite existing differences and asymmetries, Russia and China are united by one strategic objective: connecting the Eurasian space. In the coming decades, geopolitical power will depend not only on military or economic strength, but increasingly on control over connectivity routes — transport, technology, finance, and infrastructure. China’s strategy is: • technological sovereignty • physical connectivity through Belt & Road Initiative • financial connectivity via currencies, development banks, and payment systems Russia is pursuing a similar path on a smaller scale, developing alternative economic structures less dependent on the U.S.-led system, the North Sea Route etc. As for the EU: conflict/tensions with both Russia and China risk leaving #Europe outside the construction of Eurasia’s future security and economic architecture. Containment alone is not a strategy. Europe needs dialogue, strategic clarity, and a pragmatic recalibration of relations with both Moscow and Beijing.

Spoke with @CNNChile (min 44:00) about Russia and the current state of the war in #Ukraine. Key points: Russia is facing economic problems, but it is far from an economic collapse. More importantly, public dissatisfaction is increasing, driven by the rising cost of living, internet blackouts, and war fatigue. As a result, pressure on Putin to end the war is also growing, even if this could lead to escalation. Most Russians want the war to end, but on terms favorable to Russia. At the same time, hawkish voices have long argued that attacks such as the recent drone strike on Moscow cannot go unanswered. Two path are now possible: 1.Diplomacy: rhetorical de-escalation, agreement on negotiation venues and mediators, and a serious diplomatic process. 2.Escalation: In this case, Europe would find itself in a missile crisis similar to that of 1962 (but with even greater risks). A serious negotiation process before the end of this year is therefore highly desirable. youtu.be/CFw2jLSo0lk?is=ZllD…

Iran and the UAE reportedly clashed behind closed doors at the #BRICS foreign ministers’ meeting in Delhi, with Lavrov stepping in to defuse tensions. The episode underscores both the internal contradictions within BRICS and the bloc’s emerging value as a forum where rival powers can directly confront and potentially manage their differences.