Tom Shepherd

The Houthi attack on Riyadh airport today - with at least 12 killed including an American and hundreds injured - has significantly raised the stakes of the conflict. It is too soon to tell precisely what the consequences will be, but it seems likely the attack will widen the war at least in the short term: deepening Saudi resolve to impose serious military costs on the Houthis and potentially drawing in at least limited US intervention. But the Houthi attacks are also a harsh reminder to Riyadh of how the Yemen war undermines other Saudi priorities: the Houthis have cut off the main artery of travel to Saudi Arabia just weeks before one of the flagship conferences in the kingdom. However, this phase of the Yemen war is different than the pre-2022 truce phase. Since 2023, the Houthis have demonstrated a sustained intent & capability to constrain maritime traffic through the Red Sea. Houthi control over the Red Sea would jeopardize Saudi Arabia's economic development for decades to come, making it harder for Riyadh to strike a durable deal with the Houthis. If Riyadh truly believes the latest Yemen government offensive can deliver a decisive military defeat against the Houthis (despite mixed results at least initially), Saudi leaders could decide the costs of the war are worth it in the long term. None of this bodes well for the stability of the region.