Founder & host of Thoughtful Money® Media inquires: [email protected] Tweets are *not* financial advice
Reno, NV
Joined June 2008
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Yes, the news is true: I have left Wealthion
To hear why & what comes next, plus ask me any questions you have, read my new post at:
Back in the air, on American Airlines crappy wifi...
Here are some key takeaways from my conversations at @Brien_Lundin's New Orleans Investment Conference:
- Most speakers distrust the valuations of AI & AI related stocks. No consensus on timing of when they may correct hard (some wonder if we're seeing the start of one now?), but most agree the markets will be in major turmoil when they do, and the economy will slow materially as CAPEX gets pulled back
- Most think that rising bond yields are a secular trend, not a transitory one. That higher cost of capital will alter asset performance in the future. As a result of these higher yields, bonds will command a greater % of portfolio allocations -- "there is now an alternative"
- As usual, the one trend EVERYONE agrees on is that the purchasing power of fiat currencies will continue to decrease, and likely accelerate as growing sovereign debt crises force central banks to monetize greater and greater amounts of debt. How to protect your wealth? Precious metals, hard assets, maybe(?) Bitcoin, and quality equities.
- The US has 2 new "unfair advantages" that may allow it to delay its debt reckoning for substantially longer than most other countries: an AI productivity boom & stablecoins. AI may enable it to grow its economy faster than its debt for the forseeable future. That doesn't solve the problem, but it takes material pressure off. Stablecoins will likely create major new demand for US Treasurys, containing bond yields, allowing for continued deficit spending but in a non-inflationary way (stablecoins don't increase the money supply). Note: neither of these AI or stablecoin boons is guaranteed.
- The Battle for Western society crept into a number of discussions, though IMO, it has not yet elevated to the existential level it deserves. So far, I see no other realistic responses for the West other than zero-tolerance for bad actors, tight border control & legal immigration reform, and deportation/remigration of all illegals. It seems clear to me that we are already long past the point of solutions that will be easy/popular. And the longer we -- our leaders & the general public -- avoid it, the more heavyhanded and extreme the remaning options become. I plan to address this more openly on my channel going forward as I find experts on the topic. FYI: a UK-based speaker admitted that his country is pretty much already at the "lost" stage.
One of the more interesting presentations I saw this week was Porter Stansberry's @porterstansb explanation of the outperformance of his "honeycomb portfolio"
Would you like me to invite him on the program to discuss it in depth?
87%Yes
13%No
253 votes • 14 hours Adam Taggart retweeted
Ooof! This was a painful week for the markets
A.I. stocks got clobbered. The NASDAQ fell -3.5% yesterday alone. Gold & silver got hammered & Bitcoin dropped nearly -4%.
I ask @LanceRoberts: Is this the start of a much larger correction?
WATCH: youtu.be/rsNkaAWHobw
Minutes away from heading onstage to moderate a debate between these two on the Future of Money
Whom do you predict will have the winning argument?
@PeterSchiff
@SantiagoAuFund
Question for crypto followers:
How significant a blow -- if any -- to confidence in Bitcoin, Ethereum, etc as a "safe store of value" is the Binance hack?
As I've been worrying/warning about all week, gold & silver are plunging now that they've broken through key support (their previous lows for the year)
I have no idea how much lower they may go
Hoping this is a "flush out" that gets the pain over quickly
Adam Taggart retweeted
FOMC Live Reaction: Is The Fed Making A Policy Error? | Axel Merk teapawt.net/i/broadcasts/1DGleVADk…
Am in flight to the New Orleans Investment Conference, where among my hosting duties, I'll be asked for my thoughts on macro & the markets
So as I organize my thoughts, I thought I'd share some here with you
1) The Time Is Now For Diversification
The AI trade is long in the tooth and has commanded sky-high valuations. I'm skittish about it, but...if you look at demand for compute and AI capex spending/building there's no sign of slowdown. This juggernaut could keep steamrolling on in 2027 & the opportunity cost of being out of the trade has been huge, so maintaining *some* exposure still makes sense. And be VERY careful with short bets against this megatrend.
Bonds are now an attractive alternative. They make more sense to hold in your portfolio at these yields than they have in over a decade. Plus, they should provide good cushion should stocks puke next year.
Capital has been skittishly rotating between growth and value all year. So if you're holding tech, you likely also want to hold some more defensive names, too, as a counterbalance.
Commodities are a wild card, IMO. Lots of reason to own them (structural scarcity, AI capex demand, inflation concerns, etc), but they are volatile. And if a market correction/economic slowdown happen next year, they're likely to whacked in the process. If Ukraine and/or Iran wars end, oil will prob get clobbered. Be good about harvesting any gains along the way, and seriously consider hedges.
And speaking of hedges, risk management in this environment should take high priority, IMO. Retain some cash as dry powder, consider stops/option hedges on large positions, rebalance often, etc -- remember, hogs get slaughtered.
2) It's Do Or Die Time for Precious Metals
Gold & silver prices have been weak all year after hitting blow-off tops in January, but the price action has been especially sick of late. They're now at new lows for the year. Technically, they seem a whisker away from breaking below key support. If they're going to stage a reversal rally, now is pretty much the time. Else it likely will get a lot harder for prices to recover anytime soon.
That said, there are lots of reasons why such a rally could happen (some would argue *should*). Several experts I interview now think that prices, especially of the PM mining stocks, offer ridiculous value.
In short, neither a breakdown or breakout would be surprising soon. Position yourself so that you aren't busted no matter which happens. IMO, this is a great environment for dollar-cost-averaging into new positions in the PM sector.
3) The Battle for the West Is Intensifying
Both domestically and abroad, the battle to control the identity & future of Western Civilization is heating up & will likely only get hotter next year.
Socialism vs Capitalism. Immigration vs Protectionism. Globalization vs Nationalism. Traditionalism vs Wokeism.
Western values vs Eastern ones.
Expect topics like these to continue to push themselves front & center. And all have economic consequences which is why, like it or not, investors need to pay attention to where the momentum is heading.
IMO, this fight for the West's future will be one of the most dominant social & investing trends of the next several decades. Monitor it, understand it, place your bets accordingly....and beyond all that, stand fast for the outcomes you want. We won't get the ones we want if we don't fight for them.
OK, the plane is starting its descent. So that's it for now.
Currently in the air flying American Airlines which does NOT have Starlink
They call their wi-fi "high speed internet"
It's more like dial-up in the boonies
Super sloooow. And it keeps dropping
Apparently AA flights will get Starlink starting in 2027
Can't come soon enough
Adam Taggart retweeted
The price weakness in gold & silver has not only created a bargain in the precious metals, says @Brien_Lundin
It's offering a "generational opportunity" in the stocks of the companies that mine them
WATCH: youtu.be/nQcHVwwaeDU
When it comes to the Nov 3 midterm elections, I am:
64%Voting as normal
14%Casting a protest vote
22%Not voting/Boycotting
1,042 votes • Final results
FOMC Live Reaction: Is The Fed Making A Policy Error? | Axel Merk teapawt.net/i/broadcasts/1DGleVADk…
Adam Taggart retweeted
The U.S. Economy Is BOOMING and SLOWING At The Same Time
Please ❤️like, bookmark🔖, and 🔁share with fellow investors
In this Short video, Craig Fuller @FreightAlley and @AdamTagart discuss a growing divergence in the U.S. economy that traditional economic indicators may be failing to capture.
While consumer demand for physical goods is weakening, manufacturing and industrial activity are experiencing what could be their strongest expansion in at least a decade.
Freight transportation data reveals a tale of two economies, with consumer-related shipments slowing even as industrial freight volumes continue to expand.
*
For years, the American consumer was the primary engine of economic growth.
During COVID and the subsequent recovery, households purchased enormous quantities of goods, fueling demand across retail, logistics, and transportation.
But that dynamic is changing.
Freight data now suggests consumers are buying fewer physical products, raising concerns that the long-awaited consumer slowdown may finally be materializing.
*
Why does freight data matter?
Because it measures the actual movement of goods rather than the dollars consumers spend.
Traditional retail sales figures can appear resilient even when underlying consumption is deteriorating.
Inflation can push spending higher despite consumers purchasing fewer products, while continued spending by wealthier households can mask financial stress across much of the population.
*
This helps explain why headline retail sales have remained surprisingly strong even as many Americans struggle financially.
Higher-income consumers have continued spending, supporting aggregate figures, but that doesn't necessarily translate into growing physical goods volumes.
*
Meanwhile, the industrial side of the economy tells a dramatically different story.
Manufacturing activity is expanding at a pace Craig describes as potentially the strongest in a decade.
Massive capital expenditures, government stimulus, energy investment, and infrastructure development are driving demand for industrial materials, equipment, and transportation services.
The manufacturing renaissance that began emerging earlier in 2026 is not fading. In several areas, it is actually broadening.
*
This creates an unusual economic environment: consumer-related freight is weakening while industrial freight is strengthening.
The two sectors are moving in opposite directions, making it increasingly difficult to assess the economy through headline statistics alone.
*
Importantly, weaker goods consumption does not necessarily mean consumers are cutting back on travel, hotels, restaurants, or other services.
Freight data primarily captures physical merchandise, not the entire consumer economy.
The bigger question is whether this industrial boom can continue supporting economic growth if household demand for goods deteriorates further.
*
So, the U.S. economy isn't simply booming or slowing. It's doing both simultaneously.
Consumer spending figures may be concealing weakness in physical goods demand, while an extraordinary wave of industrial investment is powering a manufacturing renaissance.
Understanding this divergence could be critical to identifying where the economy and financial markets are headed next.
*
💡 Get access to notes with the key takeaways from this interview by visiting Thoughtful Money Substack (link in the @AdamTaggart 's bio)
BREAKING: As expected, the Federal Reserve didn't change its policy rate
There were 2 dissents this time: Cook & Hammack who both favored a .25% hike
@axelmerk & I will be breaking all the implications down for you at 5pmET/2pmPT today + take your live Q&A
I emphatically encourage you to vote this election
I just did
Exercise your right that our forebears died for. Make your voice heard. Vote for the policies that you believe will best serve you & your family.
You may think your vote doesn't matter. I can guarantee you it 100% won't if you don't cast it.
