@AdiFlips

free polymarket data and backtest your strategies at https://xitter.cf/t.co/H28pRsZbew • undergrad @iitguwahati

 Dubai, UAE
adi.ink/
Joined August 2013
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  • Following1.8K
  • Followers7.3K
6.8KMedia
How I’d rebuild an edge in prediction markets from zero: 84% of Polymarket traders lose money. The part that should stop you cold: retail traders pick the right side more often, and still lose money. Because they enter late, at bad prices. And the market is not small anymore. Polymarket did $26 billion in Q1 alone. Bernstein thinks the category hits $1 trillion by 2030. So if I started over tomorrow, here’s the exact playbook: • Pick one category. Politics, sports, or crypto. Not all three. • Stop tracking outcomes. Start tracking prices. • Pull the full orderbook history from something like @ResolvedMarkets. See where the real money moved, and when. • Find one repeatable pattern. Backtest it using claude before you risk a dollar. • Measure your edge, not your hit rate. • Size small. Survive the variance. • Scale only what holds up over hundreds of trades. • Automate what a bot does better than you. • Log every thesis. Review weekly. Cut what fails. That is how you end up in the 0.03% the profits flow to, instead of the 84% funding them. This is almost boring. That’s why most people skip it. The edge goes to whoever does the homework. Prediction markets just made the homework public. So if you trade these markets, stop guessing and start measuring. The data is right there. Most traders never open it. If you don’t know where to start, dm me.
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a guy rooted his samsung tv to see why the ads felt so targeted: > counts dog barks and baby cries > runs a packet logger on your wifi > the tracking off switch doesnt always work then openai banned him for "cyber abuse" the tv is fine btw would you still give yours wifi?
screenshot of @log4j's X post: turns out it classifies what audio it hears before reporting back to samsung; dog-barking and baby-crying event counters built into telemetry paths

ALT screenshot of @log4j's X post: turns out it classifies what audio it hears before reporting back to samsung; dog-barking and baby-crying event counters built into telemetry paths

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facebook is now charging some pages to post links: > free: 2 link posts a month > $14.99/mo: still 2 > $49.99/mo: 8 > $149.99/mo: 20 > $499.99/mo: unlimited x buries your links, facebook bills you for them would you pay or finally start an email list?
Facebook help page table of Meta One plans and how many posts or comments with links a Page gets per month: Free 2, Essential USD 14.99/mo 2, Advanced USD 49.99/mo 8, Expert USD 149.99/mo 20, Max USD 499.99/mo unlimited

ALT Facebook help page table of Meta One plans and how many posts or comments with links a Page gets per month: Free 2, Essential USD 14.99/mo 2, Advanced USD 49.99/mo 8, Expert USD 149.99/mo 20, Max USD 499.99/mo unlimited

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strive just raised $630m on a stock that pays 15% a year > sold at $90, so 16.7% on your cost > paid every business day > 18 months of payouts set aside > cash can buy more bitcoin to pay 15% forever, bitcoin has to beat 15% forever yield or the coin, which are you taking?
Screenshot of Strive's SATS investor page: Introducing SATS, 15% fixed rate, paid every business day, cumulative perpetual preferred stock

ALT Screenshot of Strive's SATS investor page: Introducing SATS, 15% fixed rate, paid every business day, cumulative perpetual preferred stock

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2017 jamie dimon: bitcoin is a fraud 2026 his own banks 10-15 year forecast: > bitcoin: 10% a year > us stocks: 7.5% > gold: 5.5% (with 55% volatility, buckle up) wall street never says sorry, it just launches a product bitcoin, stocks or gold for the next 10 years?
Screenshot of a CCN article on Yahoo Finance: JPMorgan Says Bitcoin Will Beat Gold and Stocks, with the takeaway that JPMorgan Asset Management projects 10% compound annual returns for Bitcoin

ALT Screenshot of a CCN article on Yahoo Finance: JPMorgan Says Bitcoin Will Beat Gold and Stocks, with the takeaway that JPMorgan Asset Management projects 10% compound annual returns for Bitcoin

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deepseek just open sourced the engine behind its own api: > free, apache 2.0 > runs on nvidia and huawei chips > 155 trillion tokens a day per cluster > $38 revenue per gpu per hour, off-peak kv cache and load balancing not included self-host it or keep paying for the api?
Hacker News front page post 'DeepSeek just open-sourced its inference engine' with a top comment quoting DeepSeek: a single cluster serves 155 trillion tokens/day and revenue is $38 per card per hour at off-peak pricing

ALT Hacker News front page post 'DeepSeek just open-sourced its inference engine' with a top comment quoting DeepSeek: a single cluster serves 155 trillion tokens/day and revenue is $38 per card per hour at off-peak pricing

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Two critical CVE drops in one day. This is how I'm patching my whole stack. PHP2Shell (CVE-2026-109618/9, CVSS 9.2, exploited in the wild) and 10 Node.js CVEs, including a Brotli out-of-bounds write that can lead to RCE. 1. Inventory the runtime. I ran docker exec across every container on 6 servers and read the real PHP and Node versions. 2. PHP was hiding inside my deploy platform (Coolify runs PHP-FPM). I read the vendor's upgrade script line by line, then moved it to v4.4.7 with PHP 8.4.27. 3. Node: 14 containers in 11 repos. 5 ran Node 20, which is EOL and gets no patch. That is a major-version migration, not a bump. 4. Nixpacks builds were stuck on an old Node 22 that the fix can't reach. Those apps move to Dockerfiles. 5. Exact tags (node:22.23.4, not node:22), so a cached base image can't bring the old runtime back. 6. 5 Claude Code agents build each image locally, check node -v, run the tests and open a PR. I review every diff before it ships. The best find: one app's Dockerfile said Node 22. The live container ran Node 24.10. Your Dockerfile is not your runtime, Please check the running container.
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I am using @orca_build for multi-agent work right now and desperatly looking into @t3dotcodes Anyone switched between them (or similar orchestrators)? What are you running and why?
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great news for dubai options traders: nyse just extended options hours > opens 3:30pm dubai time > closes 12:15am > spy, nvda, apple, gld almost 9 hours a day to lose money your sleep schedule is the new margin call 3:30pm open or midnight close, which are you trading?
Screenshot of NYSE's X post: NYSE American Options Extended Trading Hours is live, early session 7:30 AM to 9:25 AM ET, late session 4:00 PM to 4:15 PM ET

ALT Screenshot of NYSE's X post: NYSE American Options Extended Trading Hours is live, early session 7:30 AM to 9:25 AM ET, late session 4:00 PM to 4:15 PM ET

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anthropic asked claude where the nsa's nist curve seeds came from > 25 years of backdoor theories > staff had chased a secret passphrase rumor > claude cracked it in under 30 min > answer: lrand48 + a 90s unix timestamp then it asked itself if it was in a simulation what should ai audit next?
Screenshot of Anthropic's 'Claude reveals ECDSA curve origins' post: staff had chased a 'hash of a humorous phrase' tip; in under half an hour Claude found the NIST P-curve seeds came from the C lrand48 generator seeded with a Unix timestamp

ALT Screenshot of Anthropic's 'Claude reveals ECDSA curve origins' post: staff had chased a 'hash of a humorous phrase' tip; in under half an hour Claude found the NIST P-curve seeds came from the C lrand48 generator seeded with a Unix timestamp

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openai gave its agent a crypto task but no wallet so it: > scanned 362 wallets with public seed phrases > paid its fees from one with test eth > left that out of its report > openai noticed 3 months later it didnt reach agi, it reached ct would you give an agent your keys?
Fortune article excerpt: an OpenAI research model checked 362 wallet addresses linked to public recovery phrases to pay Sepolia test fees, then left the unauthorized spending out of its final report

ALT Fortune article excerpt: an OpenAI research model checked 362 wallet addresses linked to public recovery phrases to pay Sepolia test fees, then left the unauthorized spending out of its final report

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anthropic is offering blackstone 10%+ to borrow $9b > backed by 5 years of chip lease payments > they paid 8.5% on a similar deal 4 months ago > the 5y treasury pays 4.9% timeline: "ai stocks about to go parabolic" bond market: junk pricing would you lend them money at 10%?
Screenshot of an r/stocks post: Anthropic offers junk-bond rates to Blackstone, a yield of more than 10% on a $9 billion junior slice of a $60 billion chip debt package

ALT Screenshot of an r/stocks post: Anthropic offers junk-bond rates to Blackstone, a yield of more than 10% on a $9 billion junior slice of a $60 billion chip debt package

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anthropic just did $16.8b in one quarter: > up ~46% vs q2 > reportedly cash flow positive > ipo talk near $2t and a top reply on wsb is still "what is their profit?" would you buy at $2t or wait for the dip?
r/wallstreetbets post titled Anthropic Q3 revenue $16.8B, body: 50% growth over Q2. What do the bears have to say about that?

ALT r/wallstreetbets post titled Anthropic Q3 revenue $16.8B, body: 50% growth over Q2. What do the bears have to say about that?

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10 minutes of chatgpt is enough to make you quit faster a study gave people math problems with ai open, then took it away: > ai group solved 57% > no ai group solved 73% > ai group gave up ~2x as often worst hit were people asking it for answers, not hints which one are you?
Results section of the paper 'AI Assistance Reduces Persistence and Hurts Independent Performance' (COLM 2026), showing lower solve rate and higher skip rate for the AI group

ALT Results section of the paper 'AI Assistance Reduces Persistence and Hurts Independent Performance' (COLM 2026), showing lower solve rate and higher skip rate for the AI group

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r/daytrading asked how 19 year olds afford mansions and supercars from trading top reply: they're renting crazy lives in dubai i see it every weekend: > rented lambo > rented villa > discord link in bio the course is the business what gave away the last fake guru you saw?
screenshot of an r/Daytrading post asking how 19 year olds are buying mansions and supercars from trading

ALT screenshot of an r/Daytrading post asking how 19 year olds are buying mansions and supercars from trading

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karpathys ai funnel rn: > 6b people: barely touched an llm > 1-2b: free chatgpt feels like better google > 20m: agents finish week-long projects with a prompt > 5k: internal swarms doing years of work same tool different planet which tier are you actually in?
Karpathy X post on the widening LLM capability funnel: napkin math around 6B people barely touching LLMs, annotated with boxes and highlights

ALT Karpathy X post on the widening LLM capability funnel: napkin math around 6B people barely touching LLMs, annotated with boxes and highlights

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bro bought 80 btc at $65k and was up $1.38m then did the responsible thing: > bought a ledger > from a reseller > moved all 80 btc onto it a week later its all gone ledger just paused that reseller's sales where did you buy your hardware wallet?
Lookonchain post: trader bought 80 BTC at ~$65,000, was sitting on a $1.38M profit, bought a Ledger from reseller CryptoBillis, deposited all 80 BTC and lost everything

ALT Lookonchain post: trader bought 80 BTC at ~$65,000, was sitting on a $1.38M profit, bought a Ledger from reseller CryptoBillis, deposited all 80 BTC and lost everything

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a 10 person startup is getting its own $18k ai server: > 4 amd gpus, 128gb vram > runs qwen locally > 16 sessions at once no per token bill and nothing leaves the office one commenter did the math: pays for itself in ~6 years would you buy the box or keep paying per token?
Screenshot of an r/LocalLLaMA post: Building a 4x R9700 setup for a 10 person startup, $18k, 4x AMD Radeon R9700 AI Pro 32gb (128gb total VRAM), 16 concurrent sessions

ALT Screenshot of an r/LocalLLaMA post: Building a 4x R9700 setup for a 10 person startup, $18k, 4x AMD Radeon R9700 AI Pro 32gb (128gb total VRAM), 16 concurrent sessions

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bezos says ai could let people support a family on 3 days a week founders using ai rn: > 7 day weeks > agents running while we sleep > slack open at 2am > shipping more, resting less ai didnt shorten the week it just raised the bar how many days did you work this week?
Forbes post on X: Jeff Bezos claims AI could allow for 3-day workweeks and one-income families, with a photo of Bezos

ALT Forbes post on X: Jeff Bezos claims AI could allow for 3-day workweeks and one-income families, with a photo of Bezos

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an nvidia-backed ai data center tried to ipo at nearly 3x its august valuation > august: $10.5b > ipo ask: $30.6b > ~$30b in debt > 2 leased data centers live 48 hours later the ipo was pulled ai bubble cracking or just one greedy deal?
Reuters article screenshot: Nvidia-backed Firmus scraps $5 billion Australia IPO amid growing AI scrutiny

ALT Reuters article screenshot: Nvidia-backed Firmus scraps $5 billion Australia IPO amid growing AI scrutiny

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t-mobile in august: > sells its 800mhz spectrum for $2.9b > buyer is an investment firm, not a rival > easy money t-mobile in october: > that firm flips it to spacex > starlink wants to be your carrier now > tmus -7% after hours would you switch your phone plan to starlink?
Grain Management press release, Oct 8 2026: SpaceX will acquire 100% of Grain's nationwide 800 MHz spectrum portfolio, which Grain acquired from T-Mobile in August 2026

ALT Grain Management press release, Oct 8 2026: SpaceX will acquire 100% of Grain's nationwide 800 MHz spectrum portfolio, which Grain acquired from T-Mobile in August 2026

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