Adi

Accelerate or Restrain? The U.S.–Israel Dilemma in a War of Attrition with Iran A. In light of the significant operational successes achieved by Israel and the United States in the current campaign (the “trees”), it is difficult to fully grasp the profound strategic complexity of the broader confrontation with Iran (the “forest”). B. These tactical gains have clearly disrupted the Iranian regime and made governance more challenging. Yet, despite mounting pressure, the regime has thus far demonstrated its ability to absorb shocks and continue functioning. C. At the same time, emerging realities suggest that the current trajectory of the Iranian system may be even more hardline than under Khamenei’s earlier years. Coupled with the remaining stockpile of approximately 440 kg of enriched material, likely to play a central role in any decision to move toward weaponization, this leaves the U.S. and Israel with limited room to simply end the campaign while the regime remains intact. D. This is where the strategic dilemma sharpens. Meaningfully weakening or toppling the regime would likely require a substantial escalation of actions. However, such escalation will not necessarily succeed, and regardless carries a high probability of triggering internal collapse in Iran, not into a stable, pro-Western alternative, but into prolonged instability or chaos. E. In other words, the very dynamics created by the campaign—an increasingly radicalized Iran, with fewer restraints, heightened motivation for retaliation, and a stronger drive for regime survival—may compel the U.S. and Israel to go even further. This could include a significant expansion of military efforts, which would almost certainly prolong the conflict and intensify its scope. F. These factors, combined with potential disruptions such as the closure of strategic waterways loke Hormuz Straits — something a U.S. administration would find difficult to tolerate given global economic implications, and the absence of a credible interlocutor within Iran for managing escalation, increase the likelihood of entanglement in a prolonged conflict with no clear exit strategy. Bottom line, The situation is likely to get worse before it gets better(if it will get better...).