Ali Hamade علي حماده

Why the Current Standoff Between the United States and Iran cannot last. There are several reasons why the current situation cannot continue for much longer: First, the American naval blockade may be effective, but it is important to distinguish between effectiveness and success. There is little doubt that the blockade has caused significant economic damage to Iran. But the purpose of the blockade is not simply to hurt the Iranian economy. It is supposed to force Tehran to change its position. So far, there is little indication that this is happening. If Iran continues to refuse American demands despite the economic pressure, then Washington will eventually have to acknowledge that the blockade is not achieving its strategic objective. The United States cannot maintain such an expensive operation indefinitely simply because it is causing economic pain. Second, there is a fundamental misunderstanding in Washington about the Iranian leadership. These are not people who are going to surrender because the United States threatens them with another military campaign or imposes additional economic pressure. For the Iranian leadership, this confrontation is about much more than the nuclear program. It is about the survival of the Islamic Republic and its ability to resist what it sees as American attempts to dictate its policies. The leadership in Tehran is deeply committed to the principle that Iran cannot be seen as surrendering to American pressure. In their view, making concessions under military threats would only encourage Washington to demand more in the future. Third, the cost of maintaining the current situation is becoming increasingly problematic for the United States. The American military presence in the region, the naval blockade, the protection of shipping routes, and the need to respond to Iranian actions all require enormous resources. At the same time, high oil prices are creating additional economic and political pressures. Trump may be willing to sustain these costs for a limited period, particularly if he believes that Iran is close to making concessions. But what happens if Tehran continues to refuse? How long can the administration justify maintaining this level of military pressure without achieving a clear political result? Does Trump has the patience to continue this approach indefinitely? Fourth, Iran has no intention of accepting a situation in which its oil exports are restricted while the rest of the Gulf continues exporting oil without interruption. This is one of the reasons Tehran has been willing to threaten shipping and energy infrastructure in the region. The Iranians want Washington to understand that the blockade will not be a one-sided affair. If Iran pays a heavy economic price, others will pay a price as well. Fifth, the nuclear issue itself makes the current situation even more dangerous. The absence of an agreement means that there is no stable diplomatic framework for addressing Iran's nuclear activities. Iran may continue rebuilding capabilities damaged during previous military operations, and the longer the confrontation continues, the greater the possibility that elements within the Iranian leadership will question whether the country's existing deterrence strategy is sufficient. Continued military pressure could strengthen the argument that only a nuclear deterrent can guarantee the survival of the Islamic Republic. This would be a particularly troubling outcome for an American strategy that is supposed to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Sixth, Washington is gradually running out of attractive options. If the United States allows Iran to continue challenging freedom of navigation and threatening regional energy infrastructure without responding, American deterrence could suffer. But if Washington decides to launch another military campaign, it may find itself in a conflict that is far more difficult to end than to begin. Finally, the current situation is not a stable arrangement that can be maintained for months or years without serious consequences. The blockade is costly, Iran is not surrendering, the nuclear issue remains unresolved, and the risk of a military incident or miscalculation is growing. Iran will not accept the current situation indefinitely. Tehran will continue to escalate its activities against U.S. interests, and sooner or later, Washington may find itself compelled to respond with overwhelming force. But most important question that the Trump administration needs to seriously to ask is What happens if Iran refuses to surrender and the Iranian people do not take to the streets? #IranWar #iran